信号 - 西班牙和加泰罗尼亚。宪法法院的秩序,媒体的极化...

对问题的影响

➚➚ 加泰罗尼亚对西班牙

就加泰罗尼亚和西班牙之间的政治动态而言,局势继续升级。这些信号是如此之多,以至于我们将在下文中列出这些信号,并将其评估为升级或稳定的信号。

在认识和处理情况方面,注意两个要点。

The perception that actors may have of an appeasement following the decision by the Spanish Constitutional Court not to authorise the Catalan parliament to hold its Monday session, which would, in turn stop them to declare Independence runs… completely contrary to the highly likely political dynamics that are currently unfolding. To declare independence against the will of a central power shows a resolve, which has been growing out of escalation, to finally get out of that central political authorities’ power. As a result a court order by that very central political authorities has no appeasing power, on the contrary. Furthermore, by denying existing rights here autonomy, it is escalating.  Other factors can play that would delay declaration of independence or lower the tension, and undoubtedly many actors are trying to obtain this result. But the Spanish Constitutional Court order itself is an escalating factor not a stabilising one

相关的

企业与地缘政治(1)。陷入漩涡?

Second, it would seem that many businesses and the corporate sector in general has again been caught unaware by an issue that has been long-standing. They have again failed to anticipate and prepare for all possible scenarios. Surprisingly, it does not seem that they are able to learn from very recent lessons over the last few years. Now as they enter into the realm of likely overreaction, because they have no proper perspective on what is happening, their odds to take wrong decisions is heightened, while they may also easily become pawns into the hands of other stakeholders.

➚ 不断升级

加泰罗尼亚地区媒体反映了西班牙社会的两极分化

10月4日,巴塞罗那《先锋报》的头版被正在发生的加泰罗尼亚危机所占据。一张航拍照片显示,前一天有数万人在市中心示威,当时举行了全区性的罢工,抗议西班牙安全部队试图阻止人们在周日的独立公投中投票。

➚➚ 强烈升级

西班牙法院禁止议员采取独立行动

西班牙宪法法院已经暂停了下周一的加泰罗尼亚议会会议,以预先阻止可能的独立运动。法院表示,此举将是 "违反宪法 "的行为。此前,首相马里亚诺-拉霍伊警告加泰罗尼亚地区政府,在上周日有争议的投票后不要宣布独立。

不断升级
路透社。 随着商业警报的加深,西班牙将使企业更容易从加泰罗尼亚地区转移基地

➚➚ 不断升级

加泰罗尼亚警察局长因公投前 "涉嫌不服从命令 "而面临叛乱指控

要被认定犯有煽动罪,必须证明被告 "公开起义,以武力或非法手段阻止法律的实施[或]阻碍任何国家官员行使职责"。

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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