对问题的影响

➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain

 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see 前一个信号) through a letter (as displayed below).

The letter shows a resolve to remain on the positions expressed on 10 October, while trying to abide by all external actors’ wishes to see negotiations. It did not bring much change to what had been said on 10 October.

对于以前和其他信号,请查看

地平线扫描板

It fails to directly answer the question of “declaration of Independence or not” and was written with a style that shows, most probably willingly, refusal to bow to Madrid. Indeed, Puigdemont asked as gesture of good will, a reversal of the policy of repression against Catalan People, notably the release of the two separatist leaders.

This was unlikely to satisfy Madrid and Prime Minister Rajoy’s government. A few hours later, Spain High Curt jailed, pending investigation and without bail, the two said leaders, which may be seen as a first answer from Madrid to Barcelona.

Catalonia now has until Thursday to stress it does not declare independence, and short of that Madrid will use art. 155 of the Spanish constitution to take control of the Catalan government.

Escalation is thus at work, both sides having irreconcilable positions. We are progressively but surely moving towards “civil unrest”, to use words that are less frightening than civil war.

The two major questions and uncertainties are now the willingness of the Catalans to fight – i.e. to use violence – to obtain their independence, and the capacity of Spain to deter and stop any use of violence by Catalans.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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