对问题的影响

/ ➄ Hindrance to effective peace talks / Continued war in Libya

Recent statements by the elders of the Warfalla tribe highlight an underlying challenge to Libyan peace talks—tribalism. Under the umbrellas of the rival Libyan governments lie a host of tribes that are simultaneously competing for influence and power.

The Warfalla are considered Libya’s largest tribe with an estimated 1 to 1.5 million of the total population of 6 million people. The tribe’s elders recently iterated that any UN solution for Libya’s civil war would require the inclusiveness of the Warfalla—considering it comprises a large portion of the population.

“We are represented in all regions. If the U.N. wants a solution for Libya you need to talk (to us) the tribes.”

They claim that the UN has not asked them to be involved in the dialogue, to which a UN official pointed out that at least two Warfalla delegates participated in the latest peace talks in Tunisia. The elders dismissed this claim by noting that they “did not feel represented by them.”

The Warfalla leaders say they do not support the rival governments and would like to see peace talks take place within Libya and led by Libyans.

Considering the size and influence of the Warfalla’s confederation of tribes, we may wonder if the United Nations and other external actors will better recognize the role of tribalism in a political solution. However, more inclusivity may also cause fallout as rival tribes vie for political influence (as we’ve seen occur historically). For example, the Warfalla and Misrata tribes have a historical hostility towards each other, which could flare up if one sees the other as gaining more influence in a peace solution.

As external actors attempt to bring about a unified peace agreement, it will be interesting to see how they will measure success—will an agreement simply between the rival governments constitute success, or will an agreement supported by the rival governments and the majority of Libyan tribes define the peace solution?

Hilltop tribe’s bitterness a challenge for Libya peace effort

BANI WALID, Libya (Reuters) – Elders of a powerful tribe that defended the regime of former leader Muammar Gaddafi have a message for the United Nations as it tries to broker peace in Libya – talk to us or you will fail. The U.N.

由Jon Mitchell (Ma)发布

他是一名独立的研究人员和作家,在美国自由大学攻读公共政策-国际事务硕士学位。他曾为一个非营利性国际组织撰写政治经济分析报告,为美国国会委员会编撰关于博科圣地的非官方分析报告,并为《外交政策杂志》撰写文章。在哈德逊研究所实习期间,他研究了关键的区域安全问题,并在其政治-军事分析中心分析了复杂的国际挑战。

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