每周我们的扫描都会收集微弱-和不太微弱-的信号...

编辑部:

Although the G7 summit is drawing near (starting 8 June 2018), it does not generate an overwhelming interest in terms of crowdsourced signals. Yet, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for Europe to “Step Up in `World Being Reorganized’“, while the “EU College of Commissioners decided on Wednesday to adopt a tit-for-tat duties strategy” to answer the U.S. tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium, as some wonder if we could not be heading towards a G6 (see Economic diplomacy brief).

Could these, including the lack of interest, be indeed strong signals that the world is obviously being reorganised and that older institutions such as the G7 are increasingly becoming obsolete? In such an emerging new world, the place of Europe and the EU remains a critical uncertainty.

As for the “tit for tat” answer to American tariffs, the 6 June 2018 official EU press release states that

“The EU will therefore exercise its rights immediately on US products valued at up to €2.8 billion of trade. The remaining rebalancing on trade valued at €3.6 billion will take place at a later stage – in three years’ time or after a positive finding in WTO dispute settlement if that should come sooner.”

Thus, the EU – and consequently Europe – answers on 43,75% of the blow it received from the U.S…. well, not sure this is a very strong answer that may be taken as retaliation, not sure it can be preemptive of another blow.

Meanwhile, so far, it would seem that Chancellor Merkel “called for joint action on security and migration”. Considering deep divisions on migration, while NATO and willingness to pay for security and defence may continue standing in the way of a true European defence, the road ahead could be long.

Thus, behind the uncertainty regarding the place of Europe in the world and thus its power, we could have two fundamental questions that Europeans need to ponder – and solve – sooner rather than later:  is there the will power and is there the capabilities to rise to the challenge? At the end of the day, could Europe be also fighting not to be forgotten or being made obsolete ?

对于其他弱(和强)的信号,请阅读下面我们最新的免费的每周地平线扫描...

扫描的每个部分都集中在与特定主题有关的信号上:世界(国际政治和地缘政治);经济;科学;分析、战略和未来;人工智能、技术和武器;能源和环境。然而,在一个复杂的世界里,当事实和事件跨越边界相互影响时,分类只是呈现信息的一种方便方式。

Read the 7 June 2018 scan

随着两极分化的加剧,不仅在国际上,而且在许多国家的国内,微弱的信号不仅是 "直接 "的,描述事实的,而且越来越多的是 "间接 "的,即对现实的看法,提供了更多关于行为者的定位、不断上升的紧张局势和不确定性的迹象,而不是关于事实。本周刊还旨在监测这种不断上升的紧张局势,以评估未来公开危机的可能性,以及潜在的相应动态。

该周刊是红色(团队)分析协会的免费扫描。它关注政治和地缘政治的不确定性,关注国家和国际安全问题。

收集的信息(众包)并不意味着认可,而是指向新的、正在出现的、升级的或稳定的问题和议题。

如果你想在本周结束后查阅扫描结果,请直接使用《周刊》上的 "档案"。

特色图片。阿塔卡马大型毫米/亚毫米阵列(ALMA)的天线,位于智利安第斯山脉的Chajnantor高原上。大麦哲伦云和小麦哲伦云是我们银河系的两个伴生星系,在照片的中心可以看到夜空中明亮的污点。这张照片 照片 是由欧洲南方天文台(ESO)制作的,ESO/C.马林[CC BY 4.0] ,通过维基共享资源。

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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