对问题和不确定性的影响

➚ ➃  Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt
  Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts

  Survival of the Islamic State
  Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya
  Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region

  Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and theatre of operations in Africa

It would seem according to the array of indications included within the Reuters article below, that we are facing further spill over of the Islamic State conflict, as expected considering the Islamist Jihadist worldview.

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地平线扫描板

The likely spill over would be taking place in the western part of Egypt, and would originate geographically mainly from Libya and Mesopotamia.

We could have a possible strengthening of al-Qaeda affiliated groups and attacks, as fighters switch allegiance from the Islamic State, because of the latter current disarray in Mesopotamia. However, the Islamic State would also be showing some resurgence in Libya.

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利比亚战略前瞻和预警分析门户网站 (Scenarios, likelihoods, indicators, state of play)

The War against the Islamic State

We could witness both a competition for allegiance between the two nexus of jihadist groups and, on the ground, operational “temporary” alliances, as has already happened in the past in Libya.

Linkages with other jihadist groups and theatre of operations in Africa could also come to the fore.

Egypt Western Desert attack exposes front outside Sinai

A deadly attack on the police in Egypt’s Western Desert claimed by a new militant group risks opening up another front for security forces far beyond the remote northern Sinai, where they have battled a stubborn Islamic State insurgency since 2014.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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