Massive geopolitical changes are occurring in the Arctic, because of the rapid warming of this region due to climate change. These geopolitical shifts are particularly important in the Russian Arctic Exclusive Economic Zone, which spans from the Bering Strait to Norway, along the Siberian coast. This is where Russia develops the North East passage known as the “Northern Sea Route”. As we shall see in this article, the warming of this zone is turning this Northern Sea Route into the backbone of a massive Russia – Asia – Northern Europe – Northern Atlantic economic and digital integration process, with massive geopolitical consequences.

It combines the reinforcement of maritime cooperation between Russia and China through “conventional” maritime transport infrastructures with the deeply transformative project of a trans-artic fibre optic cable that could, maybe as soon as 2020, connect China and Japan to Russia and Norway.

Map of the Arctic region showing the Northeast Passage, the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage, and bathymetry

In other terms, the Russian zone of the warming arctic is becoming the support of a continental geopolitical and economic shift. Given the fact that the accelerating warming trend is thus “harnessed” to the Asia and Russia development trend, it is necessary to understand what is at stake in this region for Asia, Russia and the North Atlantic region: the encounter between a rapidly, digitally developing China, Russia as a “climate change great power” and the North Atlantic.

In a first part, we shall see how the Northern Sea Route is being developed as a strategic asset by Russia in a time of climate change. Then we shall look at the way the Northern Sea Route is becoming increasingly important for the development of the Arctic’s and Northern Europe’s dimension of the Chinese “Belt and Road”. Finally, we shall anticipate the transformation brought about by the project of data fiber cable, which could be laid down along the Northern Sea route, to Asia, Russia and Northern Europe, in a time of growing interconnection in a warming world.

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Full article 1920 words – approx. 5 页数


关于作者Jean-Michel Valantin (巴黎博士)领导红色(团队)分析协会的环境和地缘政治部。他的专业是战略研究和国防社会学,重点是环境地缘战略。

特色图片。 A Snapshot of Sea Ice – This image was compiled using data gathered by NASA’s Aqua satellite on Sept. 3, 2010. Credit: NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio.

由Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)发布

Jean-Michel Valantin博士(巴黎博士)领导Red Team Analysis Society的环境与安全部。他的专业是战略研究和国防社会学,重点是环境地缘战略。他是《气候对世界秩序的威胁》(Menace climatique sur l'ordre mondial)、《生态学与世界治理》(Ecologie et gouvernance mondiale)、《战争与自然,美国准备气候战争》(War and nature: America gets ready for climate war)和《好莱坞、五角大楼和华盛顿》的作者。