对问题和不确定性的影响

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临界不确定性➚➚➚ 扰乱了目前私人和公共行为者的人工智能力量竞赛--美国在竞赛中取得了非常严重的领先。
➚➚  人工智能的加速扩张
➚➚  人工智能世界的加速兴起
➚➚ 看到美国在人工智能力量竞赛中巩固其领先地位的几率增加。
➚➚ 不断升级的人工智能力量竞赛,特别是在美国和中国之间。
➚➚ 世界其他地区追赶的挑战不断上升
紧张局势升级的可能性 美中之间,包括人工智能行为者之间的关系

Facts and Analysis

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On 7 September 2018, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the Department of Defense (DoD) launched a multi-year investment of more than $2 billion in new and existing programs to favour and let emerge “the third wave” of Artificial Intelligence (AI). According to DARPA, this next generation AI should notably improve and focus upon “contextual adaptation,” i.e. “machines that understand and reason in context”.

The goal is to enable the creation of machines that “function more as colleagues than as tools” and thus to allow for “partner[ing] with machines”. As a result, the DARPA wants to create “powerful capabilities for the DoD”, i.e.:

“Military systems that collaborate with warfighters will
– facilitate better decisions in complex, time-critical, battlefield environments;
– enable a shared understanding of massive, incomplete, and contradictory information;
– and empower unmanned systems to perform critical missions safely and with high degrees of autonomy.”

The last point is highly likely to include notably the famously feared Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) aka killer robots.

Even though the USD 2 billion announcement includes existing programs, DARPA’s new campaign indicates the importance of AI for the American Defence. The U.S. shows here again its willingness to remain at the top of the race for AI-power, by breaking new ground in terms of “algorithms” as well as “needs and usage”, to use our five drivers and stakes’ terminology. It also thereby adopts a distinctively disruptive  strategy as it intends to go beyond the current Deep Learning wave.

Disruption would impact both public and private actors, states and companies alike.

In terms of power struggle, we may also see the launch of the DARPA campaign as an answer to the call by Alphabet (Google), Tesla and 116 international experts to  ban autonomous weapons.  With such an amount of funding available, it is likely that more than one expert and laboratory will see their initial reluctance circumvented.

Should the U.S. succeed, then it would take a very serious lead in the current race for AI power, notably with China, as it would deeply shape the very path on which the race takes place.

来源和信号

Darpa: AI Next Campaign

DARPA Announces $2 Billion Campaign to Develop Next Wave of AI Technologies

Over its 60-year history, DARPA has played a leading role in the creation and advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies that have produced game-changing capabilities for the Department of Defense. Starting in the 1960s, DARPA research shaped the first wave of AI technologies, which focused on handcrafted knowledge, or rule-based systems capable of narrowly defined tasks.

Elon Musk leads 116 experts calling for outright ban of killer robots

Some of the world’s leading robotics and artificial intelligence pioneers are calling on the United Nations to ban the development and use of killer robots. Tesla’s Elon Musk and Alphabet’s Mustafa Suleyman are leading a group of 116 specialists from across 26 countries who are calling for the ban on autonomous weapons.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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