对问题和不确定性的影响

临界不确定性 ➚ 在当前的人工智能力量竞赛中,私人和公共行为者都可能面临挑战--德国进行反击,但未来的道路充满竞争。对人工智能可能产生的量子干扰可能是德国以及法国的一个富有成效的战略选择 和英国(从欧洲的地理和历史角度来看)。

➚➚  人工智能的加速扩张

➚➚  人工智能世界的加速兴起

➚➚ 看到量子技术影响人工智能的几率增加(反之亦然)。
➚➚  
全球人工智能力量的竞赛不断升级
➚➚  世界其他地区追赶的挑战不断上升

 欧洲、美国以及中国之间的紧张局势有可能升级。

Featured Image: German Flag Pixabay and Mike MacKenzie 关于 Flickr – Image via www.vpnsrus.com – (CC BY 2.0).

Facts and Analysis

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Militarizing Artificial Intelligence – China part 1part 2 (open access/free)

On 14 November 2018, the German Government launched its new Digital Strategy (see below in sources). Within it, we find the Strategie Künstliche Intelligenz, “KI als Markenzeichen für Deutschland” /”KI made in Germany”.

“The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Strategy is to bring research and development, and application of AI in Germany, to a leading level worldwide…”

According to this strategy, 3 billion euros ($3.93 billion)  should be invested by 2025, going especially in research for the Federal funds, while an equivalent amount is expected to be provided by the private sector. If we count that the plan lasts over seven years, this translates into an expected €428 million per year for public funding ($560 million), and as much coming from German companies.

On the bright side, this underlines the creation of a framework considering a public-private research-industry complex for AI, as exists in the U.S. in a way that is quite similar – but broader – to Eisenhower’s military-industrial complex (Military-Industrial Complex Speech, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961). Indeed, considering the characteristics of the AI (actually at the moment narrow AI, focusing on deep learning) development at this end of the second decade of the 21st century, it would be meaningless to only look at public funding for AI, without also considering private actors.

Yet, we should remember that just the U.S. Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)  invested $2 billion for a program campaign for the next generation AI ($20亿用于美国国防的下一代人工智能 - 信号). The most recent study by the U.S. Congressional Research Service “Artificial Intelligence and National Security” (26 April 2018) estimated that U.S. technology companies invested approximately $20-$30 billion in 2016, while “DOD’s unclassified investment in AI for FY2016 totaled just over $600 million” (using respectively McKinsey Global Institute, Artificial Intelligence, The Next Digital Frontier?, June 2017, pp. 4-6. and Govini, Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and Cloud Taxonomy, December 3, 2017).

China, for its part plans to invest $150 billion in government funding for AI by 2030 (CRS, Ibid.). Meanwhile the Chinese BATX among other Chinese companies are making massive investments in AI and are very active indeed.

Hence, the amount planned by Germany remains very small indeed compared with the leaders of the race, China and the U.S. It is nonetheless higher than what is planned by France, i.e. to  invest €1.5 billion over five years (€300 million a year).

Meanwhile, Germany succeeded in taking the eighth place in the supercomputer world Top500 list for November 2018, which is crucial should one wants to be a serious actor on the world stage in AI (see 人工智能、计算能力和地缘政治 (2) – free/open access). Germany has 17 High Performance Computing (HPC) systems, and France can use 18 such systems. Furthermore, both, through the EU are well placed in the race to exascale (Winning the Race to Exascale Computing – Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics (4)).

Finally, if funding and investments are crucial indeed, smartness does not depend upon quantity. Furthermore, the quantum technologies are a very disruptive factor in terms of AI, as we showed previously (Winning the Race to Exascale Computing… and 即将到来的量子计算的破坏,人工智能和地缘政治 (1) – free/open access. And there, Germany is emerging as the top public investor (forthcoming article), with public funding reaching €262,5 million per year ($301,24 million) in Quantum Information Systems (“Quantentechnologien – von den Grundlagen zum Markt“, August 2018). Private investments still remain to be assessed.

As a result, the race for Germany, as well as France if we take a more European outlook – to which we should add the UK despite Brexit, as historical and geographical ties will remain – will most probably be a challenging one, but all is not lost, far from it, considering the highly shifting and fluid environment. Surprises are certainly possible.

来源和信号

The Digital Strategy of the German government

The German government intends to shape the digital revolution and prepare the country as well as possible for the future. To this end the government has put together a package of measures which is summed up in an implementation strategy.

KI als Markenzeichen für Deutschland

“KI made in Germany” soll zu einem internationalen Markenzeichen für moderne, sichere und gemeinwohlorientierte KI-Anwendungen auf Basis des europäischen Wertekanons werden. Damit das gelingt, hat das Kabinett die von BMWi–Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie, BMBF und BMAS gemeinsam vorgelegte Strategie Künstliche Intelligenz beschlossen.

Germany launches digital strategy to become artificial intelligence leader | DW | 15.11.2018

“The internet is new territory,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said back in 2013. It was a comment that prompted ridicule, but at the same time indicated Germany’s lackluster approach to digitalization. Five years on, Germany has finally joined the party.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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