主权领土是权力和活动的关键。在可预见的未来,这一原则很可能会或多或少地保持下去。因此,每个国家拥有主权的领土是什么?每块领土的面积是多少?这些领土又位于何处?地理上的国际世界是什么样子的?

我们认为,我们当然知道这些问题的答案。当然,例如,最大的国家一定是俄罗斯、美国、加拿大和中国。当然,欧洲国家只有在地理上的欧洲才是强大的。但如果这些答案是错误的呢?如果我们生活的和将要生活的真正的国际和全球世界看起来与我们最经常使用的表述完全不同呢?

Using maps, this article focuses on a representation of the world that is coherent with reality. It insists on the importance to consider the seas and sovereignty over maritime territories globally rather than to look solely at outdated representations centred on landmass. It highlights geo-strategic consequences of this “revised” territorial representation of the world and underlines a few recommendations.

对世界的经典表述

世界的表述、地图和战略

体现为地图的世界表征决定了我们如何思考、提前计划和行动。

表征影响着我们的战略思维方式。如果我们想设计和实施成功的战略,那么我们需要确保我们的心理表征与现实足够接近。

我们对自己所处的地理空间的概念将制约和促成我们认为可能的事情,我们的愿景和目标,我们如何设计和执行战略以实现我们的目标,规划和实施政策。

They are keys in terms of envisioning global power interplay, which country we think has most chances to win or lose, to be a superpower or not, to be part significantly of the international order or not. They are keys in terms of defense and security, from classical defence and war to planning ahead for threats stemming from climate change, biodiversity loss and more generally ecosystems’ changes. The are key in economic terms. They are key in terms of deciding where to locate factories and offices. They are key in terms of logistics.

改变我们对空间的表述可能会改变我们所做的事情和我们对自己的概念化,以及我们与他人的关系。

For example, modern geography and especially mapping has been critical in the development of nation-ness and the idea of a nation. It has been no less critical in allowing for the imposition of the principles of the modern nation-state worldwide – i.e. sovereignty, territoriality and independence (see with a related bibliography Hélène Lavoix, “地图的力量“, The Red Team Analysis Society, 2012).

对土地面积的经典关注

世界上最古老的地图之一,是一张 Mappa Mundi,是指 犹太法典》(Tabula Peutingeriana)。这可能是1250年左右制作的罗马地图(约250)的中世纪副本(Ulrich Harsch Bibliotheca Augustana).它看起来就像下面的图片所示。

犹太法典》(Tabula Peutingeriana)。, 1-4th century CE. Facsimile edition by Konrad Miller, 1887/1888, Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons – Click on image to access on ZoomViewer.

重点是主要的陆地,显示道路网络、城市、一些地理特征,如河流和山脉,以及已知的海洋和岛屿,如这里显示的科西嘉和撒丁岛(第一张图片)。罗马的政治中心地位也得到了强调(第二张图片)。

目前,21世纪的 Mappa Mundi 我们使用的是下面的表格。

世界政治地图来自于 中央情报局‘s 世界概况 2015年,公共领域。

这是一幅典型的世界政治地图. 该地图的来源,即美国中央情报局 世界概况这告诉我们,在国际安全、国际关系和地缘政治以及经济活动方面,这的确是对世界最普遍和最广泛的认识。

通过这种类型的地图,我们把重点放在已知的土地面积上,小的和微小的岛屿在大洋上供电。我们还关注主权国家、独立国家和领土国家之间的距离。我们对边界,特别是有争议的边界感兴趣。

如果是关于边界的争端,那么我们就把重点放在更精确和详细的地图上,比如下面这张关于东海和南海潜在冲突的地图。

Chinese Territorial Claims and Disputes, the U.S. view – 2020 China Military Power Report to Congress – Department of Defense

类似的地图是根据领域和利益绘制的,从能源到采矿,到军事指挥和军队。

无论前景如何,代表的框架首先是陆地,附属的、不幸的或甚至不重要的是在海洋中间,通过港口和运输通道处理。

看海和下海

更新地图

现在,这种对主要大陆地块的关注让我们对现实有了错误的认识。缺少两个基本要素:专属经济区(EEZ)和大陆架,这导致了对扩展大陆架(ECS)的要求。

Maybe the easiest way to understand what the EEZ and the continental shelf represent in geopolitical terms is first to imagine the earth without the oceans. Emerged lands (the current landmasses) would then appear as the top of more or less large mountains and plateaux. What we perceive usually as a state’s territory would be located starting from the top of these mountains or plateaux to the coast line (or land boundary as agreed with neighbours). Another slice of territory would be located around the country and spread over 12 nautical miles (the territorial sea). Then another much larger territory would be located within the next “boundary” line, at 200 nautical miles (the EEZ) from the coastline. Finally, a last slice of territory would spread, if it exists, over 360 nautical miles of the continental shelf to which the mountain or plateau belongs, starting from the coast line, or if the continental shelf is smaller than 350 nautical miles, then its end.*

Jean-Benoît Bouron在" "中提供了一个非常清晰的图形,显示了这些不同的区域。 测量专属经济区的情况 ", Géoconfluences, 2017年3月

在最近一次重审的ECS边界内的所有地面都在国家的主权管辖之下,或多或少都是通常出现的陆地*,其中包括所有的开采权。

然后你可以用海洋的水再次填入深度。200海里内的所有水域都在国家的主权管辖之下。

以欧盟为例,带有专属经济区的右图看起来就像下面的图片(通过以下链接访问)。 欧洲海洋观测和数据网络(EMODnet)门户网站).

EMODnet Map of the EU countries plus the UK and their EEZ – 13 November 2020 – Click on image to access interactive map

Yet, even this much better map is not completely correct. We must add to it the extended continental shelf (ECS) claims each country had to submit by 13 May 2009 (for more details, Helene Lavoix, “深海资源简介“, updated 5 January 2018). We can see what these claims cover on the picture below.

Map – One Stop Datashop (OSDS) – Continental Shelf Programme – 13 Sept. 2021 – Click on image to access interactive map.

如果你点击一个区域,在互动的 制图网站 通过GRID Arendal,你会看到哪个国家对这个地区提出了权利要求,以及权利要求的状况。

现在,如果我们把所有的地图结合起来,就会得到一个确实与我们所习惯的非常不同的世界表述(注意,这些地图中仍然缺少南极洲的领土**)。

哪些国际行为体是真正的全球大国?

The only truly geographically global power is the European Union, as long as it remains united. The loss of Great Britain was a serious blow in geopolitical terms, with the loss of South Atlantic supremacy. Comparatively, the U.S. is a Pacific power. Furthermore, the EU’s total EEZs represent 20,07 million km2, while the next power, the U.S., only totals 12,17 million km2 (Jean-Benoît Bouron, “测量专属经济区的情况“, Géoconfluences, 23 Mars 2017)。

第一张图片。 EMODnet Map of the EU countries plus the UK and their EEZ – 13 November 2020.
Second image: NOAA’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the United States and affiliated islands (dark blue). 

中国专属经济区和争端由 ASDFGHJCC BY-SA 3.0,通过维基共享资源

China remains within its traditional boundaries, to which the disputed South and East China Sea zones must be added. The absence of maritime and continental shelf possessions for China contributes strongly to explain its extremely active multinational and international vision as well as its related efforts with the International Seabed Authority (ISA), regarding the Arctic and Antarctica (see Helene Lavoix,"未来的终极关键技术(3)--极端环境“, The Red Team Analysis Society, June 2021; Jean-Michel Valantin, “南极中国(2)--中国的行星游戏"和"南极中国(1)。极寒之地的策略“, 31 May & 28 June 2021, as well as Jean Michel Valantin articles on the 北极, The Red Team Analysis Society). If China wants to be a global power with a corresponding geographical basis, it has no other choice. China’s space strategy may also be seen within this framework as, by completely displacing the “theatre of operations”, and making it planetary and not only earthly, then China could make partly obsolete its worldwide lack of presence on the globe.

改变权力的一个组成部分:相对于领土的不同排名

随着新的全球地图的重新审视,增加了专属经济区和经济区,国家的实际规模和潜在力量发生了变化。

每个国际行为体的全球领土(以百万平方公里计)--按专属经济区和经济区排名,按总领土排名--来源:主要是 Bouron, "测量专属经济区的情况",同上;USGS和NOAA。 国家海洋边界的港口;维基百科。  

俄罗斯是最大的国际行为体,紧随其后的是欧盟。美国接下来到达。中国远在其后。印度就更远了。不过,澳大利亚和加拿大紧随美国之后。然而,加拿大的专属经济区完全位于其陆地周围,但却使其成为北极大国。由于海洋和专属经济区的存在,澳大利亚在印度洋有很大的影响力。

In terms of states, despite small initial landmasses, France becomes the 7th largest country in the world – on a par with China – while New Zealand and the UK respectively become the 9th and 10th largest countries. Germany ranks far below and was added only for the sake of comparison.

事实上,法国拥有仅次于美国的第二大海洋领土,这些领土主要分布在太平洋和印度洋上。美国不在印度洋上。尽管在地图上看不到,但美国是一个北极大国,而不是一个南极大国,而法国是一个南极大国,而不是一个北极大国。同样具有全球影响力的英国在南大西洋尤其强大。

美国专属经济区领土(左)和法国2014年专属经济区和ECS领土(右)。
Left: NOAA’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the United States and affiliated islands (dark blue). Right: SHOM map 2014 – used on the “表的表面积"网页, 海事局 

盘点领土和权力的海洋层面

因此,从战略上讲,法国、英国和欧盟将其权力概念化为领土,特别是海洋领土,是符合逻辑的。考虑到英国的历史,这对它来说可能很容易,但对欧盟和法国来说可能要难得多。

On the contrary, China, and in a lesser way Russia, are fundamentally land-based powers, which, of course, is far from stopping them to develop maritime power (Valantin, Arctic articles, Ibid.). Yet, in the case of China, it has to do so without “points d’appuis”, hence the critical importance of the maritime part of the Chinese Belt and Road, that supplements China’s lack of substantial maritime territory (Valantin, “海上新丝绸之路的军事化“, Red Team Analysis Society。 2017年4月3日)。

The importance of this maritime territory seems to start being considered at the EU level, as, for example, the “欧盟将贸易保护规则扩展至成员国的大陆架和专属经济区” on 3rd July 2019. Yet trade is only a part of the instruments of power. Further detailed research and assessment would be needed here.

艰难的适应:法国的复杂情况?

如果我们再看看,作为另一个例子,2019年法国军队的官方文件。 法国与印度-太平洋地区的安全但很明显的是,旧的表征是很难持久的。正如下面画廊的第一张地图所示,似乎很难完全开始从全球领土性的角度来思考。

这并不意味着所有的法国行动者都有一个过时的观点,例如,从以下方面可以看出 伊夫雷默, the report of the French Economic Social and Environmental Council (CESE) mentioned below, or the more recent 国家海岸线港口(Portail national des limites maritimes,只用他们提供的地图作为弱信号(下面画廊中的第二、第三和第四张地图)。

第一张图片。法国军队。 法国与印度-太平洋地区的安全, 2019 p.3 – Second Image: 伊夫雷默
第三张图片。SHOM的互动地图,可从 国家海岸线港口(Portail national des limites maritimes – Fourth Image:  Gérard Grignon, “将大陆架延伸至200海里以外:法国的资产“, Economic Social and Environmental Council, 2013, p.74

Yet, be it for lack of understanding, vision or something else, for unknown reasons, in 2009, France withdrew the filing of the preliminary information regarding the ECS of Clipperton, thus abandoning or postponing the assertion of sovereign rights. This was done under President Sarkozy, of the Republican Party (right, LR). This abandon was denounced, for example, by the special report of the French Economic Social and Environmental Council (CESE), which is only consultative (Gérard Grignon, “将大陆架延伸至200海里以外:法国的资产“, 2013, pp. 25 & 33, 125-129), as:

“an unacceptable abandoning of the sovereignty of France over its legitimate pretentions.”

Grignon, “将大陆架延伸至200海里以外:法国的资产“, p.33

显然,没有采取任何措施来纠正这一令人难以置信的行动,并按照建议提交索赔,因为国家海事局的官方网站没有列出克利珀顿的任何ECS(国家海岸线港口(Portail national des limites maritimes, “tableau des superficies”, access 15 sept 2021), despite French rights, the existence of resources such as hydrothermal sulfur (Grignon, ibid. p.141 using Ifremer, note N°3 Ocean Mineral Resources, September 21, 2012), and possibly polymetallic nodules.

In general, considering the overall French territory, it looks like the French ECS are particularly small. Indeed, for example, apart from Clipperton, other territories were not followed up and no preliminary information was filed for them during the Sarkozy and then Holland Presidency (Grignon, Ibid., p.61, 125-133). As a whole, it would seem that 725.297 km2 of ECS have been recognised (“tableau des superficies”), when the CESE calculates that 2.510.544 km2 could be claimed (Grignon, pp. 134-135). 2.5 million km2 correspond to 3,7 times the French emerged territory.

The diversity of visions – and actions – of the various French actors should not be a surprise and has long presided over the destiny of the country, notably when exploration and overseas territory are concerned (from Jacques Cartier and the Nouvelle France, to the “Loss of India” – actually trade posts – under Louis XV, through settlements in the French American territories, support of the Americans in the War of Independence, the necessity to go against Napoleon III for a global vision, or the refusal to rely on and completely consider Protectorates and Colonies during World War II, despite demands by the people of these territories – e.g. among others, Raoul Girardet, 法国的 "殖民主义思想"(L'Idée Coloniale en France, (Paris, Hachette/Pluriel, [1972], 1978); Catherine Coquery-Vidrovitch, « La colonisation française 1931-1939;» in Histoire de La France Coloniale : III. Le Déclin读者可以通过以下方式了解到:"我的作品"。Vol.3 (Paris: Armand Colin, Agora, 1991); Helene Lavoix, 民族主义 "和 "种族灭绝":民族性、权威和反对的构建--柬埔寨的案例(1861-1979)。 - 博士论文--伦敦大学东方和非洲研究学院,2005)。

然而,法国是 事实上 是印度洋上的第一大国。它在太平洋地区也是一个非常强大的大国,可能与美国相提并论(南部地区)。

Interestingly, if we think about the old 19th century idea of François Guizot, the policy of “points d’appuis” across the globe allowing for force’s projection (and initially coal and other supplies for steamboats in the then competition with the UK, see Lavoix, Nationalism and Genocide, Ibid.), then the French Caribbean Islands and Clipperton are important locations to reach French areas in the Pacific.

不可能的邻居

Another consequence of looking globally at the territory of international actors is to become fully aware of the existence of “improbable” neighbours. For example, Australia and France are neighbours, around the Kerguelen islands and New Caledonia. Australia and Norway similarly are neighbours (North of Antarctica). These relationships exist also considering neighbourhood on Antarctica**.

这就需要对联盟或至少是强有力的合作进行不同的思考。

为什么这很重要,建议

Among the crucial factors that will shape our future, we find climate change and biodiversity loss, or more largely ecosystems’ changes, and ressources (including energy) rarefaction, all leading us to increasingly use new, more extreme, territories.

深海就是这样一个极端的领域,这涉及到了解它、保护它和使用它。因此,能够以真正可持续的方式开发深海,然后将获得的资源运送到需要的地方,并对相关区域进行监控和保护,将是最重要的。

对这些领土拥有主权,它们是 事实上 maritime, will be a factor of wealth and survival. Being able to use these territories strategically is no less important, as shown by the Chinese efforts and successes in this field (e.g. Lavoix, “最终的关键技术…”, Ibid.).

全球海洋领域和空间之间的联系既不应被遗忘,也不应被低估,因为例如空间是导航和通信的关键。

当然,不应忘记治疗资源和它们的保护。

有兴趣的团体,无论是公共的、私人的还是混合的,都应该向前迈进,以投资和发展可持续的能力和管理专属经济区和ECS的流动,特别是在深海。他们应该包括初创企业,并确保创新和多学科研究被充分纳入。他们可能必须对国家施加游说压力。当或如果官方统治者和行政部门愉快地实行忽视,以至于违约时,这一战略可能特别有用。

公司应该重新思考他们的战略,考虑世界的真实面貌,以及相关的联盟和紧张关系可能如何演变并影响他们的活动。

国家、外交官和军队应确保他们拥有并将拥有确保其主权下领土安全的手段,特别是考虑到日益紧张的环境和未来不断上升的挑战。


注意事项

*我们在这里采用的是地缘政治的方法,而不是国际法争端的观点。我们的目的不是讨论与领海、专属经济区、海洋法优先权等有关的主权和边界之间的差异,也不是讨论权力、武力、国际关系、国际法、国际制度等之间的关系。

**”As the Washington Treaty of 1 December 1959 froze all claims to the Antarctic continent, possessor states, such as France, cannot exercise sovereignty or jurisdiction over the waters beyond the Antarctic territory they claim. Requests to extend the continental shelf are also suspended. As a result, the maritime spaces relating to Adelie Land are not included in the maritime spaces currently in force for France.” (Limites maritimes, 表的表面积, 2021).

特色图片。图片由 多罗特 形式 凤凰网 – Public Domain


由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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