量子技术的竞赛已经开始。

Among those who are aware of Quantum Information Science (QIS), some call for caution, decrying a potential hype or even denying the possibility to ever see a fully multi-purpose quantum computer – a Universal Quantum Computer.

相关的

人工智能--力量、驱动力和赌注

即将到来的量子计算的破坏,人工智能和地缘政治 (1)

量子计算的战场和未来--量子、人工智能和地缘政治 (2)

然而,正如我们在前面所显示的 文章, even though the time when a Universal Quantum Computer will exist may be relatively far away, even though there is indeed no absolute certainty such a computer will ever be created and then industrialised, the very existence of this possibility – even if it is remote – has already changed the world. It has triggered discoveries and evolution in other sub-fields of QIS – namely Quantum sensing and Metrology, Quantum Communication and Quantum simulations – and related usage that can be neither denied nor ignored. We are in the case of a possibly low probability high impact scenario that no one, and especially not security related actors be they public or private, can overlook.

想象中的未来量子-人工智能世界和相关的量子竞赛都为竞赛本身提供了动力,通过研究和设想的潜在和实际用途,加速和加强了它。

This is also one of the conclusions reached by the consensual, conservative and very cautious latest report by the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, 量子计算。Progress and Prospects, 于2018年12月发表。由国家情报局局长办公室主办,该报告的结论是

关键结论7:…Although the feasibility of a large-scale quantum computer is not yet certain…. Quantum computing research has clear implications for national security. Even if the probability of creating a working quantum computer was low, given the interest and progress in this area, it seems likely this technology will be developed further by some nation-states. Thus, all nations must plan for a future of increased QC capability. The threat to current asymmetric cryptography is obvious and is driving efforts toward transitioning to post-quantum cryptography… But the national security implications transcend these issues. A larger, strategic question is about future economic and technological leadership….” National Academies of Sciences, 量子计算。进展与前景 – p. 7-20.

由于量子竞赛完全是新兴的量子人工智能世界和竞赛本身的一个组成部分,因此我们必须了解它的动态,它的特点,以及它的参与者。

The purpose of this article is thus to define the framework within which the Race to Quantum can be understood, to present an adequate tool to handle the multiple characteristics of this race, namely dynamic mapping – for mathematicians dynamic graphs –  and to uncover parts of the dynamic map thus achieved as example of what is happening and what can be done to understand.

还请阅读后续的文章,以增加绘图的内容。

英国国家量子技术计划

量子计算竞赛中的中国BATX:从研究到风险投资到药物和金融技术

绘制中国私人行为者的量子竞赛图

Considering the scope of the race, this is work in progress. The research furthermore needs to be permanently updated. It thus necessitates sponsorship for open publication, and/or commission for specific and private use, according to actors’ strategy. Do not hesitate to 联系我们.

在这里,作为描述量子竞赛的动态地图的具体例子,我们将介绍第一个系列的视频,展示1997年至2028年之间的竞赛如何展开,考虑到本文第一部分中确定的一些特征,作为理解量子竞赛的必要条件。每段视频都伴随着对比赛相应部分的经典描述,并附有所用的详细资料。

每段视频都明显显示了增加一个新演员是如何改变比赛的前景的。同时,所使用的绘图工具强调了使用适当的可视化的重要性,以便我们对比赛的看法尽可能充分地反映正在发生的事情,从而做出明智的决定。

从英国到新加坡,再到澳大利亚、加拿大、法国、日本或以色列,更不用说从谷歌到阿里巴巴的其他私营公司了,许多其他的行为者也是这场竞赛的一部分,在得出结论性的分析之前,我们需要将其纳入这场竞赛的映射中。然而,正如读者将发现的那样,下面介绍的六个动态图谱已经提供了理解的关键要素。

理解量子化的竞赛

The first way to look at the Race for Quantum is to try using what we could call a classical framework: identifying public funding. This is the approach that was taken by Freeke Heijman-te Paske, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Netherlands, “全球发展量子技术“, 8 May 2015 (then presented at the EU Flagship Launch in May 2016), as well as by a 2015 McKinsey document estimating annual spending on nonclassified quantum technology (the two show similar results, and it is impossible to know whom used the research of whom).

从那时起,同样的数字被许多人反复使用,包括上面引用的NAS报告:如英国政府科学办公室。 "量子时代:技术机会",2016年;Patrick Gill,"在这里,在那里,在任何地方",《技术季刊》。 经济学家》杂志, 1 March 2017; Crane et al., 量子信息科学的未来经济影响评估, IDA, 2017年8月。

然而,Heijman-te Paske/麦肯锡数字的第一个问题是,我们无法追踪来源。虽然我们认为他们的数字在2015年是准确的,但是,当我们现在已经过了几年之后,就不可能更新这些估计了。因此,我们很难对量子资金的演变有一个动态的概念,而这是比赛的一个关键因素。 

Second, considering mainly public funding is fraught with difficulties as far as the quantum race is concerned. Indeed, any more in-depth inquiry in the Quantum World shows how much public and private efforts are intertwined. Thus, considering only one or the other effort may, at best, only provide a partial picture. Furthermore, the positive feedbacks between both cannot be depicted and highlighted by lump sums attributed to one country. To illustrate this point, let us take the example of the Netherlands’ Research Centre 瞿达.

瞿达  在荷兰的量子技术领域占据主导地位,尤其是在量子计算和量子互联网方面。它由代尔夫特理工大学(TU Delft)和荷兰应用科学研究组织于2013年成立。2015年,它从政府那里获得了为期10年的1.46亿欧元($168,600万),通过可以被视为一个全面的量子研究框架(2015年年度报告 p. 7, 35). It was thus designed as a a public-private centre. Its main private and industrial partners are Intel and Microsoft. Intel announced a 10 years collaborative partnership in 2015 with a $50 million funding (Ibid.). Microsoft co-financed QuTech projects regularly (e.g. annual report 2015). In 2018, the American firm established its own quantum research laboratory at TU Delft, Station Q Delft, and Microsoft and TU Delft’s quantum institute, QuTech, will be collaborating intensively on the development of topological qubits (QuTech新闻, 2018年6月1日)。 

Thus, should we keep a classical public funding framework, how would we classify QuTech? If we were looking at the Netherlands as a unit of analysis, should we consider only the $168,6 million over ten years, plus “usual” yearly funding in quantum research across the country? But then, how should we regard the private industrial involvement in QuTech, which is not only important in terms of funding, but also access to facilities, cross-fertilization of research and possibly practical output?

Furthermore, other grants, awards and projects also contribute to fund QuTech’s research. For example, in late 2015, QuTech secured a five years funding from the American Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) “to develop an error-corrected 17-qubit superconducting circuit and the electronics and software to control it”, a project called 洛克菲勒公司(LogiQ). This new activity, “launched in April 2016, is a partnership of QuTech with Zurich Instruments and ETH Zurich” (annual report 2015).

因此,我们是将这笔资金算作美国的,还是在荷兰和瑞士之间分享?但如果我们选择第二种方案,那么我们是不是会失去一些信息,因为在项目结束时,美国也将从资助的研究中受益?

利用QuTech案例以及其他案例,一方面,在优秀的 量子计算国际会议(ICoCQ) 2018年11月底在巴黎举行的会议,会上提交的论文,以及与科学家的讨论,另一方面,我们确定了量子竞赛的关键特征。 

我们必须考虑量子竞赛的主要特点如下。

  1. 某一国家是否存在公共综合战略框架(或没有)。
  2. 某一行为者的年度通常公共研究经费。
  3. 公共-私人、工业-研究、金融-工业-研究的联系(特别是通过各阶段的风险资本)。
  4. 跨越主权边界的联系(这意味着届时能够考虑工业风险,以及主权国家安全风险)。
  5. 努力的开始(什么时候开始的?),因为时间和积累的资金、研究和声望很重要。
  6. 如果资金很重要,那么人才也很重要。两者都必须被抓住。
  7. 考虑到人才的短缺,摸底工作必须允许尽可能多地捕捉明天的人才。
  8. Communication matters too (capturing imagination – see 上一篇文章),因此我们必须能够解释这个维度。
  9. 我们目前正在开发的其他内容。
  10. 所有这些因素都必须以动态的眼光来看待,以便进行分析,即需要长期收集数据。

我们将需要在一个游戏状态中尽可能多地整合这些特殊性,使其在竞赛方面具有意义。然后,这将使我们能够正确地监测比赛。 

然而,应该强调的是,科学发现和工程创造并不一定是可用资金的数量或发表的学术论文数量的结果。如果后两个因素是衡量参与者对QIS的承诺程度的有用标准,并有可能增加最有承诺的人在竞争中脱颖而出的机会,那么这里也不存在致命的问题。QIS的革命性进展很可能来自一个小实验室和/或一个未被纳入竞赛或作为小角色的天才。 

该工具。动态图表可视化软件

由于我们需要考虑项目以及它们之间的联系,那么这就意味着我们可以用一个图来表示我们的行动者和他们的互动关系的映射问题。

"A 网络[或图形] is a set of items,… 顶点 或者有时 结点,它们之间的联系称为 边缘" 或领带。 (Mark Newman, “复杂网络的结构和功能“, SIAM评论 56, 2003, 167-256, pp.168-169)。

As a result, we shall be able to benefit from graph theory – should it be needed – as well as from related tools. 

在我们的案例中,我们将使用开放源代码和免费的 Gephi, which is a “visualization and exploration software for all kinds of graphs and networks”, as indeed it also allows for dynamic graph analysis, which is necessary for our purpose. This is the same software we use to map issues and for influence analysis for scenarios, as well as to identify indicators for warning.

在绘制量子竞赛图时,衡量行为者重要性的一个标准将通过节点的大小来表达,根据收到的资金进行排序。 换句话说,一个演员或一个框架收到的资金越多,节点就越大。 所有其他节点都会相应调整大小。 对于精通数学的读者来说,这意味着节点的大小是根据加权的内径来排列的。

Similarly, the thickness of the edge (the arrow linking nodes) represents  the yearly amount of funding and varies relatively according to all the yearly amounts of funding of the mapping. 

绘制量子竞赛的演员图

考虑到地图的范围和广度,我们在这里只关注几个行动者,这也是为了证明使用动态图和整合上述特征的兴趣。

我们将首先详细介绍荷兰、QuTech和QuSoft的地图,在此基础上,我们再加上欧盟的资助才算完整。

We shall then add a partial mapping for Germany, focusing exclusively on the latest government’s decision regarding a comprehensive framework, but not fully detailing all German actors. We shall then add similarly the U.S., again focusing on the American Government effort at launching a Quantum Comprehensive Framework, thus including neither unknown military and classified efforts, nor private involvement. Then, again for the sake of comparison, we shall add as exhaustively as possible China, using mainly the excellent report made by Elsa B. Kania and John K. Costello for CNAS. 这些数据最好能进行修订,以包括其他一些缺失的元素,这些元素要么与我们的框架有关,要么与CNAS报告发布后发生的演变有关。

然后,为了至少举出一个私人高科技研究的重要性的例子,我们应包括美国的IBM。

最后,因为我们在这里有一个潜在的破坏者,特别是当竞争将处于后期阶段时,我们将添加日本软银发起的巨型高科技基金愿景基金。

量子在荷兰。QuTech和QuSoft

我们的第一张地图将集中在荷兰的QuTech,使用上面详述的数据和来源,以及后来的努力,这次是在通过专门的研究中心开发量子软件方面 QuSoft.

荷兰位于欧盟,我们也需要,以获得一个适当的映射,与欧盟在量子的投资有关的数据,详见下文。

在有数据的情况下,边缘根据每年的资金(以百万美元为单位)进行加权,(在撰写本文时进行了转换)。如果没有,则加权为1,以显示关系的存在。只有承诺的项目资金被考虑在内,这就解释了为什么一些边缘会随着时间而消失。

在2010年至2028年期间,荷兰、QuTech和Qusoft的量子竞赛,考虑到上述1至5的特点,以及9(动态)看起来像下面的视频。

The Race to Quantum: The EU and the Netherlands – Video 1

欧盟。量子旗舰

据Freeke Heijman-te Paske(同上,幻灯片8)介绍,在启动协调战略之前,欧盟通过欧盟委员会的各种计划,在量子技术方面的支出为:1997年至2002年,1750万欧元($19.9);2002年至2007年,3050万欧元($34.7);2007至2014年,4560万欧元($51.8);2014至2018年,3180万欧元($36.2)。 

2018年10月29日,欧盟推出了其 量子旗舰店, which is a €1 billion ($1.1476 billion) and 10 years initiative. However, the EU funds only half of the overall amount and the home country of the labs applying for funding will have to finance the other half (Davide Castelvecchi, “欧洲在10亿欧元的量子赌注中亮出第一张牌“, 自然界, 2018年10月29日。 欧盟关于量子旗舰的官方网页).因此,纯粹的欧盟资金确实只相当于10年内的5亿欧元。

The EU Quantum Flagship is built around five dimensions: “Quantum Communication (QComm), Quantum Computing (QComp), Quantum Simulation (QSim), Quantum Metrology and Sensing (QMS), and finally, Basic Science (BSci)”, which slightly differs from the U.S. approach, but where we, nonetheless, find the same fundamental areas (White House, 量子信息科学的国家战略概述, 2018). For the “ramp-up” phase, which should last three years, i.e. until September 2021, 20 projects were selected with an overall budget of €132 million, across all quantum technologies (press release).

在10年内每年1亿欧元,或者说5000万欧元的资金中,前3年的1.32亿欧元($1.504亿)资金意味着1.68亿欧元(欧盟和成员国各84)尚未投入。人们可能想知道为什么会有这样的差异,以及未来的方向是什么。

这有可能开始凸显两个相关的问题,这些问题可能会不平等地打击地区、国家和公司:首先是人才的相对缺乏,其次是缺乏一个足够繁荣的生态系统,以利于该领域的适当研究和创新,以及应用和使用。在欧盟资金的具体案例中,众所周知的申请资金的繁重、复杂、昂贵和特殊的程序,甚至在旗舰项目的情况下,如果它必须与成员国的类似程序并行,也可能发挥其作用。

As far as talents are concerned, the Quantum Flagship aims at involving “the quantum community at large, with over 5000 European researchers in academia and industry, searching to place Europe at the forefront of Quantum innovation” (新闻发布会).  We note here an interesting discrepancy in terms of figures. Indeed, Cade Metz, of the New York Times,  pointed out that “By some accounts, fewer than a thousand people in the world can claim to be doing leading research in the field” (“下一个科技人才短缺。量子计算研究人员“, 21 October 2018).  Meanwhile, Todd Holmdahl, Corporate Vice President, Quantum, Microsoft Corporation estimates in his 书面证言 美国参议院能源和自然资源委员会(审查能源部在量子信息领域的努力的听证会)。
Science, September 25, 2018),即。

“Today, fewer than one in 10,000 scientists, and even fewer engineers, have the education and training necessary to leverage quantum tools”.

因此,教育科学家、工程师以及更广泛的量子技术的潜在用户完全是量子竞赛的一部分,如果不加以考虑,可能会使最佳努力脱轨。

德国

In August 2018, Germany announced a €650 million quantum initiative ($ 745,9 million – rate 7 Nov 2018), the framework program “数量技术--从基础到市场” (Quantum technologies – from basics to markets – see the Official 48 pages pdf), which covers the years 2018-2022, i.e. four years (see also Andreas Thoss, “6.5亿欧元用于德国的量子研究“, 激光聚焦世界, 28 September 2018). This program is a combined effort of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research BMBF,  the Ministry of Economics, the Ministry of the Interior, and the Ministry of Defence (Thoss, Ibid.).

加上每年1亿欧元($114,700,000)的政府研究资金用于量子研究(同上),因此德国每年投资2.625亿欧元($301,24000)于QIS。

除此之外,还应该加上欧盟量子旗舰计划提供的资金(见上文)。

有趣的是,与我们关于理解和想象未来量子世界的重要性以及培养受过量子教育的劳动力的必要性相一致,德国的框架包括一个与向人们解释QIS有关的层面(同上)。

因此,量子的竞争现在看来是这样的。

The Race to Quantum: The EU, the Netherlands and Germany – Video 2

美国

The U.S. has been supporting quantum research over the last 20 years (Interagency Working Group in QIS, “推进量子信息科学。国家的挑战和机遇“, 22 July 2016). More recently and progressively, it started building its support into a more concerted effort.

In 2009, the U.S. developed a  “量子信息科学的联邦愿景”. Then, a federal inter-agency coordination on quantum research, the Interagency Working Group in QIS,  was chartered in October 2014 (Olivier Ezratty, “Qui gagnera la bataille de l’ordinateur quantique ?“, La Tribune, 25 July 2018). It aimed at developing and coordinating policies, programs, and budgets for QIS research and included “participants from the Departments of Commerce, Defense, and Energy; the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; and the National Science Foundation” (要求提供关于量子信息科学和美国工业需求的信息, 2015). As a result of these and other programs, in 2016, “federally-funded basic and applied research in QIS” was “on the order of $200 million a year” (Interagency Working Group in QIS, “推进量子信息科学。…). Note that Freeke Heijman-te Paske (Ibid.) estimates the American yearly funding in 2015 to €360 million (approx $409 million), which is twice as much as what the American Interagency Working Group estimates.  We shall use the American figure, considering the absence of sources in the Netherlands’ document.

最后,在2018年秋季,质量信息系统真正开始受益于不仅是联邦机构而且是行业的国家战略,我们在这里称之为综合框架。极有可能的是,与中国的关系日益紧张,以及中国在该领域和其他新兴关键高科技领域(如人工智能)的努力和成功,在美国的关注中发挥了作用。

On 24 September 2018, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) conveyed a meeting for “advancing American leadership in quantum information science” (QIS), which gathered “administration officials”, including “officials from the Pentagon, National Security Agency, White House National Security Council, NASA and the federal departments of energy, agriculture, homeland security, state and interior, “academic experts in the field of quantum information science and leading companies including Google and IBM”, as well as “JPMorgan Chase & Co”, “Honeywell International Inc, Lockheed Martin Corp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, AT&T Inc, Intel Corp, Northop Grumman Corp” (Nick Whigham, “建造量子计算机的国际竞赛随着白宫峰会的召开而升温“, news.com.au, 25 September 2018; David Shepardson, “Key companies to attend White House quantum computing meeting”, 路透社, 2018年9月24日)。

当天,白宫公布了 量子信息科学的国家战略概述, which aims to “maintaining and expanding American leadership in QIS to enable future long-term benefits from, and protection of, the science and technology created through this research…“.

几天前,即9月13日,众议院 批准 的"。H.R. 6227: 国家量子倡议法” to “provide for a coordinated Federal program to accelerate quantum research and development for the economic and national security of the United States”, and “authorize three agencies—the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and the National Science Foundation (NSF)—to together spend $1.275 billion from 2019 to 2023 on quantum research”, i.e. during the first five years of the 10 years initiative (Gabriel Popkin, “更新。量子物理学在国会得到关注--更光明的资助前景“, 科学, 27 June 2018). Meanwhile, the Department of Defence (DoD) also plays a role in promoting and developing QIS under its own budget (Will Thomas, “Trump Signs National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019″, 美国物理学会, 2018年8月17日)。

在不计算五角大楼的情况下,我们的年支出为$2.55亿,即与2016年QIS总体估计的年支出相比,增加了27.5%。 

Besides or rather with this Federal program, the U.S. is home to a large number of the biggest companies working on QIS – Alphabet (Google), Intel, IBM, Honeywell, Hewlett Packard, Microsoft, AWS (Amazon), as well as successful and promising startups such as Rigetti, and IonQ.

Focusing on the Federal Program – thus keeping in mind that this does not accurately represent the reality of the U.S. effort in the Quantum Race, as the private sector cannot fundamentally be excluded as will show the video 5 below, our mapping now looks as follows (note that in the absence of figure on quantum research post first five years of the comprehensive framework, we did not add any, when funding will likely exist):

The Race to Quantum: The EU, the Netherlands, Germany and the U.S. – Video 3

中国

中国的数据取自Elsa B. Kania和John K. Costello的优秀报告。 量子霸权?中国的野心和对美国创新领导地位的挑战, CNAS, 2018年9月。

To these, we added the estimate of Freeke Heijman-te Paske for 2015 that we tentatively evaluated to last, besides other newer funding, considering China’s declared intention to become a leader in new technologies, including QIS.

For the most recent funding, we should particularly note that, according to an introduction by Pan Jianwei (the scientist behind the Chinese Quantum effort) at the Hefei Municipal Committee Central Group Theory Study Conference on Quantum Communication (as also quoted by Kania & Costello, fn 83):

“It is planned to invest 100 billion yuan in five years [$14.39 billion over 5 years, i.e. $2.878 billion per year] for the National Laboratory of Quantum Information In Hefei”  Pan Jianwei Introduction. Reporter Zhang Pei, 安徽商报, 2017年5月24日。

除了这些国家和公共资金,中国的高科技巨头也在致力于QIS,特别是阿里巴巴和百度(Kania & Costello, Ibid.)(这些在现阶段没有包括在地图中)。

Meanwhile, efforts to develop applications for QIS are promoted from the provinces’ administrations to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including through the civil-military fusion’s approach, and through the very large military consortiums (Kania & Costello, Ibid.).

As a result the race for Quantum, focusing on what we know of China’s public funding, now looks as follows:

The Race to Quantum: The EU, the Netherlands, Germany, the U.S. and China – Video 4

As we see with each of the actor we added to our mapping, the outlook of the race changes considerably. What is particularly interesting with the use of a dynamic graph to visually map actors is that what by and large remain very large amounts of money we have  some difficulty to truly comprehend, now become immediately comparable and understandable. Indeed the use of weighted edges and weighted in-degrees for the size of the actors implies that comparisons are automatically embedded in the visual outlook of the map.

同时,节点的数量,这里主要是研究实验室和政府项目,帮助我们更好地掌握生态系统的概念。

量子IBM

为了更好地了解竞争和合作行为者的类型以及所涉及的利益,尽管我们的地图仍然非常不完整,我们将增加一个私人IT行为者。

我们选择了IBM,主要是因为它在QIS方面是一个非常先进的参与者。 

IBM, an American company, started researching quantum computing around 1996 (“IBM解锁量子计算能力,解除创新的限制“, 4 May 2016).

2016年5月4日,它推出了 IBM Quantum Experience (新闻发布). Through this cloud platform, it made available to the public and clients its quantum computers, thus allowing for their use, which is fundamental in the race to quantum as we saw. In 2017, IBM quantum computing research became IBM Q, a new division.  In December 2018, two 5 Qubits and one 14 Qubits computers are available for public usage, and one 20 Qubits computer is reserved for clients, while a 32 Qubits simulator is also online (IBM Q). 

According to IBM annual report (published April 2018),  “more than 75,000 users have run more than 2.5 million quantum experiments. A dozen clients, including partners JPMorgan Chase, Daimler AG, Samsung and JSR, are now exploring practical applications”. In November 2018, according to IBM data, as shown on the screenshot below, 572,945 experiments were run by various users on their machines (IBM Q体验). 

According to Harriet Green, chairman and CEO of IBM Asia Pacific, “Just in the last five years, IBM has invested over $38 billion in these new capabilities” (Jessa Tan, “IBM认为量子计算将在五年内成为主流“,  CNBC, 30 March 2018).

现在,"量子竞赛 "看起来就像下面视频中显示的那样。

The Race to Quantum: The EU, the Netherlands, Germany, the U.S., China and IBM – Video 5

该视频显示了美国目前的主导地位,这要归功于其巨大的IT产业。再加上中国同样巨大的数字公司,特别是考虑到他们在云平台上提供量子计算的努力(如 Alibaba-CAS Superconducting Quantum Computer – SQC), thus competing directly against IBM, as well as  accounting for other elements and characteristics of the race, could again change the outlook of the race.

现在,让我们转向另一种类型的行为者,即金融,更具体地说就是基金。

Vision Fund – Kickstarting Japan, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. into quantum technologies

Over 2016 and 2017, the controversial Japanese Softbank created the mega high tech $100 billion “愿景基金” (Jonathan Guthrie and Sujeet Indap, “Lex深入了解。软银的可信度问题“, 金融时报, 17 December 2018). Notably, Softbank is the major shareholder of nothing else than Chinese Ali Baba, and held 29.11% of the giant Chinese company on 2 November 2018 (Kristina Zucchi, “阿里巴巴的五大股东(BABA)“, Investopedia). 

2016年10月14日宣布,愿景基金‘s first major close occurred in May 2017, and its final close in May 2018 (Arash Massoudi, Leo Lewis, and Patrick McGee, “戴姆勒带领新投资者完成$1000亿的愿景基金“, 金融时报, 2018年5月10日)。

At the origin of Vision Fund was the meeting of Masayoshi Son, the billionaire Japanese technology investor, founder, Chairman and CEO of Softbank and Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, also known as MBS (Arash Massoudi, Kana Inagaki, and Simeon Kerr, “$1000亿的婚姻。软银之子如何追求一位沙特王子“, 金融时报》。 2016年10月19日)。 

As major investors, we thus find not only the Saudi Kingdom but also the U.A.E., two major Gulf countries that must diversify from oil. The fund is “backed by a $45bn commitment from the [Saudi] kingdom’s Public Investment Fund”, which represents 45% of the total ($17 bn in equity and $28 bn in debt), and by a $15 billion commitment from the U.A.E. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company, i.e. 15%  of the total ($9.3 bn in debt and $5.7bn in equity) (Andrew Zhan & Adam Augusiak-Boro, “SoftBank: Vision or Delusion”, 股权-Zen, August 2018, using 2017  FT research data). The linkages between Softbank and Saudi Arabia are strong enough to have been reaffirmed on 5 November 2018, despite the Khashoggi affair (Kana Inagaki, Ibid.).

Other investors range from Apple to Daimler through Taiwanese Foxconn (Massoudi et al., “Daimler…”, Ibid.).

Vision Fund is the “world’s largest technology” fund (Kana Inagaki, “SoftBank reaffirms investment ties with Saudi Arabia”金融时报,2018年11月5日)。它已经持有25个%的 ARM, the UK chip maker, as an in-kind contribution of Softbank. Incidentally, note that ARM is one of the candidates to be chosen by the European Processor Initiative (EPI) in the race to exascale computing (Leslie Versweyveld, “欧洲处理器计划(EPI)开发的处理器将成为欧洲超大规模超级计算机工作的核心。“, e-IRG, 10 April 2018; Helene Lavoix,  “赢得超大规模计算的竞赛 - 人工智能、计算能力和地缘政治 (4)“, 红色(团队)分析会, 2018年9月24日)。

Although Vision Fund is interested in all technologies that could “accelerate the information revolution” and not specifically quantum ones (website), considering its size, and the amount of the minimum investment it makes (Andrew Zhan & Adam Augusiak-Boro, “SoftBank: Vision or Delusion”, 股权-Zen但它仍可能对QIS产生巨大的影响。

事实上,如果量子技术没有被提及到 Vision Fund’s website, specialised media reported in 2017 the Fund’s interest in quantum tech. According to Bloomberg Quint “Shu Nyatta, who helps invest money for the fund, said the group wanted to find and back the company whose quantum computing hardware or software that runs atop it would become the “de facto industry standard” (Jeremy Kahn, “SoftBank’s Vision Fund Eyes Investment in Quantum Computing,” Bloomberg Quint,2017年6月26日)。

“We are happy to invest enough to create that standard around which the whole industry can coalesce,” Shu Nyatta, Vision Fund, reported by 彭博社,同上。

The impact could be all the more important that a second fund for another $100 billion seems to be planned, where Saudi Arabia would again equally invest (Riad Hamade马修-马丁,以及 Archana Narayanan, “沙特以$45亿美元的额外资金加倍支持软银的赌注“, 彭博社, 2018年10月5日)。 

As Vision Fund does not seem to have yet invested into QIS, it is included in the mapping only as a “ready to enter the race” actor. It should not be ignored, however, because it is a potentially very disruptive player considering its weight and its investors. Indeed, we may wonder about the potential political, strategic, financial and industrial consequences to see Vision Fund entering massively into the capital of a security sensitive company, or not entering in its capital but favouring a competitor, for example from an adversary country. The potential and changing clout of Saudi Arabia and of the U.A.E. should also be highlighted and deserves a fully detailed strategic analysis (forthcoming).

Here is thus our mapping including the mega Vision Fund. Note that Vision Fund’s edges correspond to capital investments and not yearly investments or fundings as for the rest of the mapping. We nonetheless, for the fund, kept it this way as capital investment also represents continuous influence and future profits.

The Race to Quantum: The EU, the Netherlands, Germany, the U.S., China, IBM  and Vision Fund – Video 6

通过这些映射,我们显示了量子技术竞赛的复杂性,强调了用适当的工具进行映射的重要性。进一步的分析和结论将要求完成映射,以及完全包括竞赛的所有特征。考虑到利害关系,这是一个每个参与者在做出战略决策前应该使用的工具。

Featured Image: “Majoranas on Honeycomb” by Jill Hemman – ORNL的科学艺术图片以可视化效果、中子研究为特色 – 2018 Director’s Choice -This visualization illustrates neutrons (blue line) scattering off a graphene-like honeycomb material, producing an excitation that behaves like a Majorana fermion—a mysterious particle that is also its own antiparticle (green wave). The visualization supports research by Arnab Banerjee, Mark Lumsden, Alan Tennant, Craig Bridges, Jiaqiang Yan, Matthew Stone, Barry Winn, Paula Kelley, Christian Balz, and Stephen Nagler. Public Domain.

书目选编

"中科院院士做客合肥市委中心组理论研究会量子通信专场" [中科院院士做客合肥市委中心组理论学习会讲量子通信] ,《安徽商报》,2017年5月24日。

Crane等人。 量子信息科学的未来经济影响评估, IDA, 2017年8月。

国会研究处。 联邦量子信息科学。概述, 2018年7月2日。

Kania, Elsa B. & John K. Costello, 量子霸权?中国的野心和对美国创新领导地位的挑战, CNAS, 2018年9月。

美国国家科学、工程和医学研究院。2018. 量子计算。进展与前景.Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25196.

Newman,  Mark, “复杂网络的结构和功能“. SIAM评论 56, 2003,167-256, pp.168-169

英国政府科学办公室,"量子时代:技术机会", 2016

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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3条评论

  1. How do you account for black-budget money for covert QC programs that have surely been in place for many years? To ignore covert programs that have virtually unlimited budgets seems rather more than an oversight on the author’s part. I saw the same problem in Kai-Fu Lee’s recent book on AI. He treats AI as happening in a complete vacuum of covert programs.

    1. 你好。

      谢谢你的评论。隐蔽项目从本质上讲是隐蔽的,它们不属于可以用开放源码的公共数据和公共分析来考虑的部分。然而,由于对每个行为者都给予同样的对待,这就重新建立了一种公平的措施。这是一个研究的事实,人们永远无法获得所有的元素和数据。例如,许多资料和文件几十年来仍然是保密的。重要的是获得一个尽可能代表现实的框架,并且足够好,以便于理解,足够好的评估,然后,作为一个结果,做出适当的反应。

  2. Thank you Helene for a thought provoking article. The opening remark whether the QC can ever be built is crucial in further discussion in my opinion. The question is HOW MUCH impossible is to build a useful QC. No doubt that we are witnessing the “quest for the stone” scenario which gave us a lot of Alchemists and Scientists later. But the question is, whether the actors you mapped (in case QC is really hard to build) are not inflating the biggest financial bubble ever. And if it is a bubble whether we will manage to utilise collateral discoveries / technologies before it all will end up in teras.

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