据报道,谷歌已经实现了著名的量子至上,因为 金融时报 首次报告 on 20 September 2019. Indeed, the NASA/Google claim “that our processor takes about 200 seconds to sample one instance of the quantum circuit 1 million times, a state-of-the-art supercomputer would require approximately 10,000 years to perform the equivalent task.” This would mean indeed quantum supremacy, i.e. out-powering even the most powerful classical computer with a quantum computer for a computing task (for more explanations, see 即将到来的量子计算的破坏,人工智能和地缘政治 (1)).

然而,描述这一成就的论文随后被从最初的出版商NASA网站上删除。当然,我们可以找到该论文的缓存版本,例如 这里 (Bing cache)和 这里 (pdf on a google drive). Furthermore, Bing specified it cached the page in … 2006, possibly deepening the mystery. As a result, the web is abuzz with discussions regarding the validity of the claim (e.g. 黑客新闻).

无论如何,这提醒我们,一个拥有量子计算机的世界即将诞生。所有行为者都需要考虑到这个新的未来,在所有方面。对于那些关心国际安全的人来说,这一点甚至更加真实。

这篇文章是一个新系列的第一篇,重点是了解即将到来的量子-AI世界。这个未来的世界会是什么样子?对地缘政治和国际安全会有什么影响?这些变化将于何时发生?

以前的, we highlighted how crucial it is to foresee the future quantum-AI world. First, imagining this world of tomorrow drives forward investments in quantum, thus the position in the race for quantum technologies. Second, and relatedly, displaying the right vision of the world of tomorrow will allow for readiness. In turn, that readiness will impact states’ relative power in the international system.

因此,那些落后的国家很可能在独立、经济发展和财富、安全和保护自己及其公民免受外国侵略的能力等方面付出非常高的代价。那些没有预见到即将到来的量子-人工智能世界和没有充分拥抱它的公司同样可能不得不面对非常高的成本,变得过时,失败和消失。

Foreseeing the future quantum-AI world is thus a geopolitical and security imperative. Yet foreseeing the future quantum-AI world is also particularly difficult. We explain why in the first part of this article. We then present a framework to move forward with foresight in the case of the future quantum-AI, security and geopolitics. In the second part, we highlight another danger, the inability to think and imagine the world beyond its current structure. We suggest ways to avoid this “failure of imagination”. Finally, we present the building blocks upon which the future quantum-AI world is likely to be built. These blocks will be the starting point that will allow us to sketch the future quantum-AI world throughout the series.

一层层的变化

想象一个由量子-人工智能驱动的世界的困难在于需要理解和预见不同层次的变化。

我们需要预见的不是一种演变,或几个动态和过程,而是无数个动态和过程,以及它们之间的相互作用。此外,这些反馈将在不同类型的领域内和之间发生,并以不同方式传播。事实上,量子技术,特别是量子计算和模拟,与人工智能(AI),或者说深度学习混合在一起,将首先被其他科学所使用。因此,新的发现和创新将在各个领域出现。此外,一门科学中产生的变化可以成为另一个科学领域中整个系列创新的起点。反过来,这些演变中的每一个都会以许多方式影响科学之外的世界。同时,这些后果将相互影响。

换句话说,我们必须预见基于量子-人工智能的许多不同科学的变化,然后是这些创新带来的跨领域和不同发展顺序的变化。

此外,就国际安全、战争、地缘政治和治理而言,我们不能止于此。我们还需要设想这些变化将如何影响所有与安全有关的领域,以及治理和国际关系。

We thus need to use a foresight approach that could look like a “layer-cake” model – funnily enough a metaphor already used in international relations (George Modelski, 世界政治的原则, 1972; Paul James, “采访 with George Modelski”, 2017).

超越当前的线性延伸

量子应用满足当前需求

量子技术和科学的应用和用途已经被确定。

然而,通常情况下,这些主要是已经存在的使用方式的投影。

例如,一些行为者需要超级计算机或高性能计算(HPC)系统(对人工智能/深度学习的这种需求的分析,见 ★高性能计算竞赛和权力--人工智能、计算能力和地缘政治(3)。).因此,这些行为者从他们的HPC需求出发,将其扩展到新的、现有的或未来的量子计算能力。例如,空中客车公司就在使用这种方法。

这的确是开始想象量子技术在未来如何使用的一个非常重要的方法。开始准备使用新的计算语言,新类型的算法,开始熟悉一种全新的技术,这绝对是至关重要的。

然而,这还不够。

The danger is to fail to envision surprises, be they totally novel possibilities or unexpected consequences. If we were solely extending or linearly projecting the present, we could merely foresee a world that is quite similar to what it is nowadays. The “new” quantum-powered world could be faster, with some important improvements, but yet, it would be similar to what we know currently. In that case, the new quantum-AI world may well fall short of the paradigmatic revolution that is expected.

然而,也很有可能,最终出现的东西将是极其新颖和非常不同的。

如果我们想实现可操作的预见性,那么我们也必须允许非常不同的情况发生。

审视过去科学和技术变革的后果

过去的历史可以帮助我们思考我们可能即将面临的变化类型。

经度、地图和多重影响

我们是否可以看到像过去一样,对海上经度测定的逐步改进的关键变化(如
伽利略项目
海上的经度)?然后,随着我们用各种仪器和方法在海上确定经度的能力的进步,社会从只参照陆地航行转为跨洋航行。发展了新的航海能力的社会,从一个受限制的世界走向了扩张的能力。

同时,地图从根本上发生了变化和改进,对现代国家制度和国际关系产生了巨大的影响(Thongchai Winichakul, Siam Mapped: A History of the Geo-Body of a Nation, 1994; Helene Lavoix, “地图的力量“, 2012).

蒸汽船、炮艇外交和中国

Shall we see a revolution as potent as what the use and spread of steamboats created in the past, notably the era known as gunboat diplomacy in the 19th century (e.g. Matthew McLin, “建立蒸汽。19世纪东亚殖民战争中的蒸汽船技术“, 2012)?

That time, for example, meant the imposition by “the West” upon China of the (unequal) Treaty Port system (e.g. Albert Feuerwerker, “外国在中国的存在,” 1983, 128-207). It triggered an immense cascade of consequences through time and space, which still impacts us today (for a cursory summary and a first bibliography, see Helene Lavoix, “来自钓鱼岛的警告“, 2012). Indeed, for China, this time is known as the “century of shame and humiliation” and is part and parcel of its historically constructed worldview. It thus infuses its current decisions, including regarding the race for quantum technologies (for the theoretical underpinnings, see Helene Lavoix, 民族主义 "和 "种族灭绝).

如果我们想对量子世界的政治和地缘政治实现可操作的预见性,那么我们必须考虑这类非常真实和关键的问题。

设想未来世界的新结构

In the approach to the quantum future where we “merely” extend the present to integrate quantum technologies, the structure of the world does not change. For example, manufacturing planes could be done more quickly, at a lower cost, and the planes produced could be of better quality, maybe flying more quickly, maybe flying autonomously. But, fundamentally, planes will still be planes and not much will have changed. For a plane manufacturer, not developing quantum capabilities would most likely still be catastrophic compared to competition. Nonetheless, the likely changes on the world may not be fundamentally disruptive.

我们往往被锁在我们所知道的世界里,只能向前推进,想象现有的趋势和它们已知的和主要的驱动力。

What the former past examples show is that we must think beyond our current world. We must be able to think today’s and tomorrow’s version of crossing vast expanses of water, without seeing the land, of new representations of the world on new devices that will fundamentally alter polities and the international system. We need to be able to imagine future events similar to steamboats and consequent gunboat diplomacy, furthermore ran by “barbarians”, that will fundamentally disrupt our world.

In other words, we must make sure that we do not fall prey to a “failure of imagination”. Indeed, that error was identified as one of the major causes for 9/11 warning failure (9/11委员会的报告,第339-348页)。

相反,我们必须赞成想象力。我们需要成功地走出或超越我们已知世界的结构进行思考。

为了能够做到这一点,我们将首先确定目前正在建立的量子革命的基石。然后,我们将调查每一个模块,并看看计划中的经典用法。然而,我们不应停留在一阶效应上,还应该尝试设想二阶和三阶影响,包括在安全、政治和地缘政治方面。

As we move through our building blocks we shall progress towards increasing levels of complexity. We shall try to imagine how some of these blocks are or could be combined. Finally, to try moving beyond the current structure of our world, we shall ask “what if” questions. We shall there suspend disbelief and favour imagination. These questions could lay the ground for future multi-disciplinary foresight work.

未来量子-人工智能世界的构件

来自量子企业界的量子应用

企业界和值得注意的初创公司已经开始研究如何创造和销售量子计算的应用。与此同时,他们还采用了分类法或分类法。

比如说。 D-WAVE (一家专注于一种叫做 "量子计算 "的公司)。 量子退火 – whilst most other develop 基于门的量子计算机),确定了其应用的四个主要领域:优化、机器学习、材料科学和蒙特卡洛模拟。

启动 萨帕塔计算该公司专门从事创建量子算法和开发跨量子计算平台的软件,其应用分为三个领域:量子化学、优化和量子机器学习,如下表所示。

萨帕塔计算类别的量子算法应用和实例
时间丘比特的数量量子化学量子优化量子机器学习
近期50电池材料金融组合优化图像/音频生成
燃料电池的催化剂制造工艺优化供应链优化
材料的耐用性车辆路线优化预测性维护
较长期的 500药物发现生物信息学信用/欺诈检测

另一家创业公司 QCware, identifies five types of “use cases”: chemistry simulations, optimization, machine learning, differential equations and Monte Carlo Methods.

Consulting companies, such as the Boston Consulting Group, focus on applications, but already segment them according to the sectors they use for their consulting business (Philipp Gerbert and Frank Rueß, “量子计算的下一个十年--以及如何玩耍“, BCG, 15 November 2018). We thus have as users’ categories: High Tech, Industrial Goods, Chemistry and Pharma, Finance and Energy (see notably exhibit 9). This early categorisation, however, makes it also difficult to imagine other usages in other areas. Meanwhile, it does hardly consider feedbacks across industries and larger impacts on society, which will, in turn, have consequences for all actors, including businesses.

未来量子-人工智能世界的构件

If we synthesise these approaches, as well as others, finding out future – and current – application and use for quantum computing, as well as more generally quantum science, tends to follow two paths, that may then be combined.

首先,从逻辑上讲,因为我们处理的是新的计算设施,所以演员们用算法的类型作为出发点和类别来设想未来的量子计算应用。因此,我们主要有量子优化算法和量子机器学习。我们还发现模拟,特别是蒙特卡洛模拟/方法,以及微分方程。

Because of Shor’s algorithm, quantum computing and cryptography should belong here (see The Coming Quantum Computing Disruption, Artificial Intelligence and Geopolitics – 1).然而,我们也将考虑这一部分,以及相关的量子通信领域,特别是由于它们对情报和反情报的影响,作为一个完整的层,影响到所有其他(见 ★ Quantum, AI, and Geopolitics (2): The Quantum Computing Battlefield and the Future).

其次,各种科学学科试图在他们的领域中发展量子方法,并调查量子力学是否可以改善他们的科学理解。在这种情况下,他们会从新的量子计算方法中受益,包括开发量子算法。

We notably identified quantum chemistry and quantum new materials, quantum biology, as well as quantum physics, including quantum optics. Quantum biology, surprisingly dismissed sometimes as “humbug”, actually appears to be a potentially interesting scientific field, according, for example, to the very serious and scientifically recognised journal, the 英国皇家学会出版 介面 (Adriana Marais et al., “量子生物学的未来“, J R Soc界面, 2018年11月)。量子传感和计量学是量子信息科学(QIS)的一部分,可以看作是属于这里。

在接下来的文章中,我们将开始研究这些未来量子人工智能世界的构建块。


特色图片。图片由 alan9187淘宝网


更多参考资料和书目

Fairbank, John K., ed. 1983. 剑桥中国史》第12卷:民国中国1912-1949,第1部分.剑桥:剑桥大学出版社。

Feuerwerker, Albert, "外国在中国的存在,"在费尔班克,编辑,1983年。

Gerbert, Philipp and Frank Rueß, “量子计算的下一个十年--以及如何玩耍“, BCG, 15 November 2018.

James, Paul, “采访 with George Modelski”, in Manfred B. Steger, Paul James, 全球化。一个概念的职业生涯, Routledge, Oct 2, 2017.

Lavoix, Helene, "地图的力量“, 红色(团队)分析会, 2012.

Lavoix, Helene, "来自钓鱼岛的警告“, 红色(团队)分析会, 2012.

Lavoix, Helene, ‘Nationalism’ and ‘genocide’: the construction of nation-ness, authority, and opposition – the case of Cambodia (1861-1979) – PhD Thesis – School of Oriental and African Studies (University of London), 2005. Access and download through 大英图书馆的宗旨.

Marais, Adriana, Betony Adams, Andrew K. Ringsmuth, Marco Ferretti, J. Michael Gruber, Ruud Hendrikx, Maria Schuld,1 Samuel L. Smith, Ilya Sinayskiy, Tjaart P. J. Krüger, Francesco Petruccione, and Rienk van Grondelle, “The future of quantum biology”, J R Soc界面, 2018 Nov; 15(148): 20180640.Published online 2018 Nov 14, doi: 10.1098/rsif.2018.0640 pmcid: pmc6283985 pmid: 30429265.

McLin, Matthew, “建立蒸汽。19世纪东亚殖民战争中的蒸汽船技术“, Master’s Thesis, Florida University, 2012.

Modelski, George, 世界政治的原则,自由出版社,1972年。

9/11委员会的报告.

Winichakul, Thongchai, Siam Mapped: A History of the Geo-Body of a Nation,清迈。Silkworm Books, 1994.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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