From Process to Creating your Analytical Model
For Strategic Foresight and Early Warning, Risk Management,
Crisis Anticipation and Scenario-Building
Overview
Course 1
Expected length to completion: 12 weeks
Online Resources available for 6 months
1.585 € (excl. VAT) for businesses
1.320,84 € (excl. VAT) for individuals (1.585 € incl. VAT)
Register for course 1 + course 2 special price
Download brochure Strategic Foresight and Early Warning Training and Online Courses
Contact us for further information.
With this course you will enhance your practical skills to anticipate global risks, geostrategic and geopolitical risk and crisis, instability, war, international and national political and security threats, including pandemics, and opportunities, in a rapidly evolving world environment.
You will learn to estimate impacts, even cascading and complex consequences. Meanwhile, you will be able to create best response strategies. And you will understand these issues even better.
With the new skills and understanding you will have mastered you will be able to improve existing products or even create new ones for decision-makers regarding risk management and surprise avoidance, for example early warnings reports and notifications, threat assessments and horizon scanning boards (see concrete example documents below). You will also be able to set up and facilitate workshops infusing them with the tools and capabilities learned during the course.
The course in a few words
The Course Analytical Model is focused on analysis. You will practically develop, step by step, your anticipatory analytical skills to tackle complex geopolitical , political and global issues. You will then be able to use this practice with most strategic foresight and warning, risk management and anticipatory methodologies. You will notably learn to properly map an issue for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management.
Including many practical examples and exercises from the real world, the course is designed and taught specifically for general managers of small and medium-sized companies, senior managers and officers, and analysts, to help them overcome the many challenges they face and develop further analytical excellence (see Teaching and Training Quality below).
The course will be of interest to all those who desire to acquire fundamental practical abilities to anticipate strategically global, international and domestic political risks, threats and also opportunities.
Key Benefits
“This course is one of the few that are actually useful, putting theory into practice. I learned so much in the way of foresight and warning that I began to consider a viable career in risk analysis and crisis management.” Nicole Stroner (U.S. – Master student Sciences-Po-PSIA Master).
- Review the fundamentals of “anticipation”: why foreseeing the future matters; which elements must be included; what is the overall process used;
- Identify many biases of various types – one of the major enemies of analysts and anticipation – and learn how to mitigate them;
- De-dramatise the idea of “models”, on the contrary, become an expert at modeling through a progressive, easy to follow, use of graphs (maps);
- Enhance your mastery in making dynamic political analysis;
- Learn to map properly any international and national security issue for anticipation analysis, making sure you are not getting ready “to fight the last war”.
- Use the mapping and the map to enhance your analyses as well as your early warning and be ready for scenario-building.
- Improve existing products or create new ones for decision-makers regarding risk management and surprise avoidance thanks to the skills and tools learned. For people unfamiliar with such products, here are a couple of examples: early warnings briefs and notifications (e.g. warning notifications from Europol: ex 1 and ex 2), threat assessments (e.g. Foreign Threats to the 2020 U.S. Federal Elections, U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment 2021; Global Water Security, a U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment 2012) and horizon scanning boards (e.g. signal in a horizon scanning board). Of course, the content and the form of the products changes according to the organisation. Note that designing proper products depends notably on one’s organisation and decision-makers. The design of these products is not the topic of this course.
- Infuse workshops with the tools and capabilities learned during the course.
“I was fortunate enough to take Dr. Lavoix’s first on-line course on Risk and Anticipation. I strongly recommend this clever and useful teaching and learning experience — not only to those who are in the safety and security field, but truly to anyone in an otherwise applied social science domain. The scenario building tools she provides are applicable to any arena where decision analysis applies. Indeed, as the Director of a language Institute in Casablanca, I’ve had cause to refer back to this course several times. For those already working within a geopolitical arena, or simply students of political science itself, the bibliography she provides is a treasure. Being able to pace yourself through the course, coupled with Dr. Lavoix’s accessibility, makes for a deep learning experience. Certainly, when my own schedule permits I shall embark on the second course in the series.”
Charles Lord Jr., MSW, PhD, Assistant Director International Student Services, Penn State University, Harrisburg.
Participant Profile
These course are more particularly of interest to
General managers of small and medium-sized companies
Senior managers and leaders in public sector and third sector organisations facing disruptive geopolitical and global changes in their environment
Analysts from all sectors, including diplomacy, defense and the military, handling geopolitical threats from war and terrorism to climate change through pandemics.
Students interested in geopolitics and the future
Photos of the pieces of the Lewis Chess – British Museum – by Paul Hudson, CC BY 2.0
Teaching and Training Quality
This course is designed to benefit from the online learning environment while remaining grounded in proper classical high-level teaching academic credentials, executive course training, as well as practical experience, including in analysis of international relations issues (check the website for many various examples of analyses).
Trainer
Our training is designed and developed by Dr Lavoix, who has a PhD in International Politics (Lond SOAS), a MSc in International Politics of Asia (distinction – Lond SOAS) as well as a Master in Finance (ISC Paris – Valedictorian). Furthermore she has specialised in strategic foresight and early warning over the last 16 years. She is also an experienced trainer and lecturer (bio).
The programmes are thus grounded in scientific and academic knowledge and understanding, as well as practical experience of international relations, political and geopolitical analysis and strategic foresight and early warning analysis and processes.
Programme Content – The Course Syllabus
Module 1 – The mission of the SF&W analyst and officer
This module is made of two units.
It explains first what is involved in the anticipation of national and international security issues or political and geopolitical problems. It stresses why it matters for public, corporate and third sector actors.
Then, it underlines the main aims that analysts and officers seek to attain, and spells out major challenges. It presents the overall process and methodology for strategic foresight and warning or risk analysis.
Module 2 – The fundamentals of an analysis
This module is composed of 5 units focusing on the fundamentals of an analysis.
It will first deal with biases, which are so challenging for analysis. Biases are unconscious mental errors, which, most of the time, hinder analysis. It is thus crucial to understand them before to begin tackling the practice of analysis, if we want to mitigate biases-related errors. The module will not only deal with the well-known cognitive biases but address all types of biases. Each time a bias will be explained, ways to mitigate it or cope with it will be suggested.
The module will then explain and “de-dramatize” models and underline their importance for analysis. It will introduce progressively the use of graphs and networks for analytical modeling.
Module 3 – Software for Analysis
This module will introduce you to two open source and free software products. Those are the software that you will use throughout the rest of the course.
The module will first underline the advantages of using these software for anticipatory analysis. Then two tutorials will allow you becoming familiar with each software product.
Module 4 – Building your graph: From Factors, Actors and Variables to the Construction of the Model
This module includes 4/5 units, the last one being a double unit also incorporating a software tutorial.
Here, you will build upon what you saw previously. You will use the knowledge acquired to learn progressively to build a full graph or network for a national or international security issue, or risk, optimised for strategic foresight and warning, risk analysis, or more generally all anticipatory analysis.
You will improve your skills at identifying those actors and factors crucial for analysing geopolitical, global and national/domestic security issues. You will become familiar with transforming them in a way that allows for proper future-oriented analysis.
Finally, this module will explain how to put everything together to obtain a model that is usable across needs.
Learning Experience and FAQ
Learning Experience
Your learning journey
How much time should I plan to spend on the course each week?
The programme should take approximately 7 to 8 hours a week. You should also add a couple of additional hours per week, especially for module 4 as you apply what you learned to your own issue of concern or project.
You can expect to spend 1 hour per week watching video lectures, 1 to 2 hours per week on practicing and thinking about what you learned through exercices, quizzes and reflections, 3-4 hours in reading and 2-3 hours per week in applying the learning content in your project to understand their relevance to your everyday work.
What is the weekly learning pace during the course?
This course is delivered through 14 units in 4 modules (the last unit includes one unit and one tutorial). The course is planned to take 12 weeks to complete (the tutorials of module 3 count for one week).
The programme is designed to provide enough flexibility within each week for the participants to study at their own pace.
Can I learn ahead of the planned schedule?
The course is designed to allow you to truly assimilate and learn the methodology and tools so that you can apply them on a concrete geopolitical case of interest to you.
You can decide to study more and to be ahead of time, but this should not be made at the expenses of reading and practice.
Study at your own pace
Do I need to be online at specific times during the course?
The programme is fully online and consists of asynchronous learning (through videos, tests, exercises, etc).
If you wish to add live seminar sessions and coaching for your project, see Online Courses with Live Seminars. In that case, a schedule will be organised ahead of the programme, with the group leader of your organisation. You will only need to be online at particular time according to this schedule.
Can I continue to access the programme content even after the end of the 12 weeks?
You can benefit from access to all the online resources of the course for up to 6 months after the start of the programme. You can go back to each unit and use it fully how often you want and need.
Requirements to successfully complete the programme?
Requirements
This course is delivered through 14 units in 4 modules (the last unit includes one classical unit and one tutorial unit). The course is planned to take 12 weeks to complete with 1 week for the two tutorials of module 3. This means that you must take the time to do most of the readings and to complete the exercises and quizzes. However you should have enough time to do that peacefully.
To successfully complete the online programme and earn certification, you are required to meet all of the following criteria:
- Complete all in-platform learning activities
- Earn a minimum of 50% to all tests.
To successfully complete the online programme plus live seminars and earn certification, you are required to meet all of the following criteria:
- Complete all in-platform learning activities
- Earn a minimum of 50% to all tests.
- Complete in a satisfactory manner your project and obtain a minimum of 60% for it.
Certification
What do I receive upon the successful completion of the online programme?
Upon successful completion of the course combined with satisfactory grades, participants are awarded with an official Certificate of Completion from the Red Team Analysis Society, which they can also showcase on their LinkedIn profile.
What do I receive upon the successful completion of the online programme plus live seminar?
In addition, if you have taken the Online Courses with Live Seminars and completed your project in a satisfactory manner and with a minimum grade of 60%, your final grade for the project will be highlighted in a corresponding reference letter from your trainer.
Technical Questions
What type of technical equipment do I need?
Our online courses can be accessed on desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones.
Supported browsers are (usually based on support of latest two browser versions):
- Chrome: version 31+
- Safari: version 7+
- Firefox: version 26+I
- E: version 10+
The course is designed to function responsively across desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones without the need of players or add-ons.
Do I need to have an Internet connection to access the course content? Can I download and save videos to watch offline?
Yes, you need an Internet connection. We do not support offline access of content so you will need to have access to the Internet whenever you want to access the course.
You can however download part of the content such as slides or some exercises.
How do I access the course content
The course, your progress and the units will be accessible from the item “my account >> courses” (right below the login, in the menu) and from the item “my online courses” (in the same menu).
Bundle, groups and budget constraints
Programme and Bundle
This course is the first of our training programme on strategic foresight and warning and risk management. The second online course focuses on scenario-building.
If you wish to enroll at once for the two courses (see bundle) you will get a 20,5% discount (on prices ex VAT) on the two courses and enjoy them over one year, instead of the six months planned for each course. Alternatively, if you prefer to register for the second course later, you will benefit of a 10% discount.
Individuals and students discounts
Enroll for the two courses (see bundle), you get a 33,75% discount (compared to the BtoB regular price for the two courses) on the two courses and enjoy them over one year, instead of the six months planned for each course. The discount is already included in the price displayed.
Individual budgetary constraints
If you are on a budget, you can take the course through instalment payment (for enrolment and for the detailed schedule see here).
Groups
If you want to register a group of participants, you can contact us. We encourage group participation as interactions between participants foster learning.
To have a group of the same organisation or of organisations wishing to mutualise their strategic foresight and early warning facilities is key for Online Courses with Live Seminars.
Indeed, considering the confidential and sensitive nature of the issues of concern for organisations we cannot mix participants from various nationalities and organisations.
If you wish to obtain further details and have more questions on our online course, do not hesitate to contact us.
