You will find below public documents and products related to strategic foresight, warning, risk analysis and intelligence, published by countries, international organisations and private actors. Interesting documents are added progressively.

Latest, we added the video just published (28 April 2021) by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence to advertise their recently released (8 April) Global Trends 2040.

In the video, the Director of the NIC’s Strategic Futures Group, Maria Langan-Riekhof speaks briefly about the report: Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World, featuring five scenarios to 2050.

Note that usually the report is released around December besides the classified version for the President elect. Meanwhile, pre-release presentations used to take place around the world, as part of the strategy of influence of the U.S.. The pandemic situation plus tension around the elections probably disrupted the usual approach.

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Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the rise of China, the COVID-19 Pandemic, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

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2 Comments

  1. I found you via a Google search ect ..
    I would like to ask as
    I thought to investigate weather the following has been applied
    “ a i neural net geopolitical modelling “ that was my Google search

    But the results were all “ inverted “ in that , risk assessments of a.i. , neural nets ect

    What I am considering is a simple and old idea that of using the latest technology to model world scenarios

    Eg opec’s oil and other geopolitical stresses during the transition to green energy

    Is this application something mundane ? and already being used to help steer a path for policy makers ect

    1. Hello Alex,
      In short, the answer I can give you is, that yes, I have heard of such endeavours. If you want a more informed and detailed answer, we would be delighted to carry out a commissioned study answering your question, however you should also know that probably the information available will only be partly accessible, because of proprietary knowledge, and because of classified one.
      An interesting question would be which type of deep learning is best adapted to international relations and geopolitical modeling, and are those carrying out this modeling constituting proper teams to get good results.
      Best
      Dr Helene Lavoix

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