(Credit Image: ESO/B. Tafreshi – twanight.org)
The Red Team Analysis Society helps you embracing the future and uncertainty.
We live today in a highly volatile world. Uncertainties for tomorrow abound. The world we knew is already gone. Yet, the future emerges only slowly. It is the theatre of tensions. Changes appear to be very quick, yet sometimes they surprise us with a pace that is not so fast.
How can we make sense of this emerging world? How can we take decisions for the future? How can we mitigate the risks we face?
With us you find answers to these questions.
Our philosophy is to help you meet the need for foresight.
French translations: Only recent articles are human translations. We are gradually review the automatic translation (DeepL) of the other 600 plus articles…
Sense-making for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management
Our latest articles
- The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 22 July 2021This is the 22 July 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they …
- From Seer to King – Success with Strategic Foresight and Warning(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Have you ever heard about Cassandra’s brother, who shared his sister’s gift of prophecy but not her curse? Could this legend, as other ancient myths, facts and histories, give us some clues to make our delivery and communication of strategic foresight and early warning products more efficient? Could it tell us …
- Antarctic China (2) – China’s Planetary Game(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) A planetary Go game: Most Western geopolitical observers seem to be unable to see the planetary scale strategy that China deploys in the Antarctic (Alexander B. Gray, “China’s Next Geopolitical Goal: Dominate Antarctica”, The National Interest, 20 March 2021). The roots of this “very Great Game” run deep in Chinese history and …
- The Ultimate Key Technologies of the Future (3) – Extreme EnvironmentsThis third article is the last part of our “equation” to identify the key technologies of the future. We started, with the first article, in establishing that solely making laundry lists of new technologies was insufficient to identify the key technologies of the future. We needed more: a system explaining the logic behind the success …
- The Key Technologies of the Future (2) – EvolutionIn the first part of this series we found that solely making laundry lists of new technologies was insufficient to identify the key technologies of the future. Use of inadequate classifications made matters worse. We needed more: a system explaining the logic behind the success of technologies. Thus, we developed a schematic model depicting the …
- The Key Technologies of the Future (1)We live in a world of increasingly abundant new technologies, seen as crucial for our future. Those are not only new, but also meant to revolutionise our lives for the better. Progress cannot be imagined without technology. Technology is meant to save us all. The speed with which bio-tech contributed to develop efficient vaccines against …
- Antarctic China (1): Strategies for a Very Cold PlaceGoing South While being under the increasing pressure of climate change, the Antarctic is attracting the strategic attention of China. Since 1983, China is a member of the 1959 international Antarctic treaty. This international treaty defines Antarctica as a scientific preserve and bans all military activity on the continent (The Antarctic Treaty). …
- From Cassandra’s Curse to the Pythia’s Success(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) When delivering warnings, are we doomed to never be believed, sharing the same fate as Cassandra, the tragic character of Greek mythology? Or, on the contrary, can we hope to become as successful as the Pythia, the oracle priestess of Apollo at Delphi? Her gift of prophecy becoming a curse, Cassandra …
- Strategic Foresight, Warning and Intelligence Products and DocumentsYou will find below public documents and products related to strategic foresight, warning, risk analysis and intelligence, published by countries, international organisations and private actors. Interesting documents are added progressively. Latest, we added the video just published (28 April 2021) by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence to advertise their recently released …
We gathered a couple of tips to help you speed reading and make sure what you read is not fake news (our contribution to fight against fake news): How to Read a Large Amount of Information and Fight against Fake News.
Browse further all our featured articles
Understand, Monitor, Foresee and Plan Ahead
to Survive and Reconstruct
Access the COVID-19 Section for a list of all articles and resources
- COVID-19 Vaccinations, Hope or Mirage?(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: torstensimon) The world has started a race for immunisation against the COVID-19. Vaccines are now perceived as the universal panacea, the miracle that will save us all from the pandemic. We shall, finally, be able to find back our old life. Are we right to hope? Or are we likely to …
- How China Could Win the War against the Covid-19 Pandemic(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) As 2021 starts, Europe struggles again against a COVID-19 new wave and the spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Japan strengthens its state of emergency against the COVID-19. The U.S. reports 4.462 deaths on 12 January 2021, i.e. almost precisely 1,5 time 9/11. Meanwhile, China also fights a rise in new symptomatic …
- France and 3 Scenarios for the COVID-19 Second WaveDesign: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Eleven months into the COVID-19 pandemic the second wave spreads. More than 50 million people were contaminated globally by 9 November 2020 (COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University). More than 1.25 million people had died by then (ibid.). On 10 November, Europe crossed …
- Scenarios to Navigate the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Possible Futures (1)This article presents nested scenarios to handle the uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim is to provide an organised framework to foresee the future of our world as it lives through the pandemic, while easing understanding. Such a comprehension, which brings together the past, the present and possible futures is necessary to allow …
- Scenarios for the Covid-19 and Post-Covid-19 Worlds – a BibliographyThe COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 worlds are fraught with uncertainties. We still have to face many unknown regarding the disease and thus the pandemics (e.g. Julie Steenhuysen, “Scientists just beginning to understand the many health problems caused by COVID-19“, Reuters, 26 June 2020). Yet, we must take decisions and act when the fog clouds our horizon. …
- The emergence of a COVID-19 international orderThe COVID-19 seems to plunge the world further into a deep confusion. Messages are most of the time contradictory. They vary according to countries and actors, from “the epidemic is behind us”, “let us all go back to business as usual and work towards recovery” to worries of possible starting new pandemic wave. This confusion …
We are striving to offer as many as possible of our articles for free.
All Covid-19-related articles are open-access
Please consider becoming a member of the Red Team Analysis Society to support independent and in-depth analysis
Or donate and contribute to fund analysis and increase the number of open-access articles
Our research articles and reports focus on a large range of issues, risks and uncertainties shaping our political and geopolitical future.
Global Thematic Issues
Main Current Focus
Besides researching and writing articles, providing training and consulting services, we also deliver keynote speeches, including for top-level executives.
Other issues on the watch
You can also read our articles according to geographical location.
As time goes by, the unfolding future becomes the present then the past.
Articles and reports progressively build an analytical trove to make sense of the world, to understand the dynamics at work out of which the future emerges.
Articles and reports are essential elements for the state of the art/literature review of the methodology of strategic foresight and warning and risk management.
How to Foresee and Warn – Methodology
The methodological aspects of strategic foresight and warning, risk management, or horizon scanning are addressed in a large collection of in-depth articles.
The articles of this section are aimed at practitioners, as well as students, who want to understand better how anticipation is done, from scanning the horizon to scenario-building through indicators and delivery to decision-makers.
All the articles address the various challenges that we can face at each step of the strategic foresight and warning process for political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties: analyse, scan and monitor, evaluate, and deliver.
The largest part of our research articles are now premium content. Usually a summary, abstract, the introduction, or the first lines of the premium access articles remain free, so you can decide if you want to read or not the premium articles.
We nonetheless strive to still provide some of our most fundamental articles and research as open access (free for readers) publications. Give it a try and start reading our open access articles.
Monitoring and Scanning (open access – without analysis)
Our scanning and monitoring is grounded in years of practice and in-depth knowledge and experience of research for political and geopolitical issues. The Red Team Analysis Weekly scans the horizon every week for weak – and less weak – signals regarding all political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties, as well as national and global changes and instability, using crowdsourcing.
The Sigils are a series of daily, raw (non edited) scans. Each focuses on a specific issue and are provided through the platform Paper.Li.
The Horizon Scanning Board provides selected open source intelligence – OSINT – signals that are particularly interesting, among all those signals we identify, analyse and use. A collection of signals are provided here as a demonstration sample only.
A short FAQ
Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for surprise in an actionable way. It is crucial for preparedness.
Strategic Foresight and Warning is an organized and systematic process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future that aims at allowing policy-makers and decision-makers to take decisions with sufficient lead time to see those decisions implemented at best.
It is now very similar to risk management.
SF&W analysis is an analysis that will use all valid methodologies to develop an understanding, grounded in reality, of the future, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission. The objective is to avoid surprise, and thus to be prepared.
Foresight analysis is an analysis that seeks to anticipate the future. Stricto sensu, foresight is used for issues that are technical, for R&D, and for technical innovation. It is a part of the larger strategic foresight family of anticipatory activities.
Forecasting refers to the use of quantitative techniques, notably statistics, to anticipate the future.
Foresight is crucial to avoid surprises, as these may have catastrophic impacts on objectives. Foresight allows us to anticipate threats and dangers. As a result we can take timely adequate actions to mitigate the impact of these dangers. Foresight is the only tool that allows for preparedness, especially when uncertainty abounds. Foresight, finally, allows turning uncertainty and the future into opportunities. Foresight is crucial for survival and for success.
Risk management is the management of “The effect of uncertainty on objectives”, according to the definition of the International Standard Organisation (ISO 31000:2018). It notably includes the steps of contextualising the risk, assessing the risk and treating the risk.
Horizon scanning is the same as strategic foresight, and similar to risk management. It is a process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future for decision-makers and policy-makers. It is a label that is especially used in the U.K., as well as in Singapore.
Red team analysis, red teaming or red teaming activity was used initially in the U.S. Army to simulate the activity of opponents in war-gaming and strategic simulations
By extension, Red Team Analysis aims at promoting a strategic foresight analysis grounded in science that struggles against our many cognitive, normative and emotional biases through various tools and methodologies, including not being limited by “politically correct” approaches.
Interestingly in the Soviet Union, during the Cold War, similar activities were called Blue or Green Team activity.
Political risks are all events that are linked to the political system of a country and may impact the objectives of an actor notably through uncertainty and change.
Most consultancy and experts take a narrow approach to political risks and focus exclusively on elections, political parties, elite politics and legal system. This is a very partial approach as much is missed, thus increasing the risks for the actors. Check our video explaining in detail what is political risk.
Geopolitical risks is a term used to cover all risks related to the impact of international politics and international relations on the objectives of actors, notably through change and uncertainty. For example, we have risks related to interstate wars, diplomatic raws, sanctions, as well as competition for international influence, competition for power among international actors. More broadly, from the point of view of an actor, every event external to the society (country) of this actor can be seen as potentially generating a “geopolitical” or external risk. Global risks, such as those linked to pandemic and epidemic, energy security, water security, climate change etc. can be seen as having geopolitical dimensions.
Some customers and references
We strive to build a relationship of trust with every client. We do not publicize our work for our clients. We do not mention the name of our private clients, nor of our public clients when the work is confidential. Here are some of customers and references we can mention.
More About Us…
The Red Team Analysis Society, it is also work “behind-the-scenes” in fora, workshops, conferences and networks.
Credit Featured images:
Top Image: ESO/B. Tafreshi – twanight.org
Consulting Image: ALMA antennas under the Milky Way, ESO/José Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)
Sense-making (Think Tank) Image: TRAPPIST–South robotic telescope, ESO’s La Silla Observatory – ESO/E.Jehin.