We live today in a highly volatile world. Uncertainties for tomorrow abound. The world we knew is already gone. Yet, the future emerges both quickly and slowly. Changes appear to be very rapid, yet sometimes they surprise us with a pace that is not so fast.
The world is the theatre of heightening tensions. Threats abound. Insecurity spreads. War has come back. The impacts of human activity on the planet and beyond create immense challenges and completely novel geopolitical stakes.
How can we make sense of this changing world that could also become inhospitable? How can we take good decisions for the future? How can we anticipate, repair, adapt?
Our philosophy is to help you meet the need for strategic foresight and early warning in a world of complex uncertainties.
An understanding of geopolitics grounded in knowledge and experience, spearheaded by PhDs
A strong methodology developed by scientists and adapted to complex issues
Imagination, system-thinking and thinking out of the box
Think-Tank and Publications
More than a website, a path to handle geopolitics and uncertainty
To understand this changing world and foresee what could happen, we have a twin approach. We mix methodology as well as research and analysis on real world issues with geopolitical and international security stakes.
We publish these articles here on the website to help you discover strategic foresight, early warning besides geopolitical issues and their stakes.
If you are new to geopolitics and strategic foresight and warning, the video we created as a trailer for our training will give you some first introductory insight.
Our latest articles
- The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 30 March 2023(The photo was taken by Stefan Seip, one of the ESO Photo Ambassadors This is the 30 March 2023 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan. As paper.li, the platform we use to create …
Continue reading “The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 30 March 2023”
- China, Saudi Arabia and the Arab AI Rise(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 7 December 2022, China’s president Xi Jinping received a royal welcome at his arrival in Saudi Arabia for a three days state visit. State visits between China and Saudi Arabia heads of state have taken place since 2016. In 2022, President Xi received a royal and considerably warmer welcome than …
- Early Warning for Individuals and Small Businesses – Overcoming Energy Insecurity(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) How can individuals and small business leaders protect themselves against the crises and upheavals that seem to be imposed on them? Can they take advantage of tools that are generally reserved for state actors, especially security forces, and sometimes for large companies? Can such a tool, early warning, be useful for …
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- The ENA of Tunis – Training in Early WarningIn early December 2022, the Ecole Nationale d’Administration (National School of Administration -ENA) de Tunis and its Institute of Leadership Administratif invited the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their incarceration in Tunisia – READ of the Civipol expertise programme for the European Commission to provide a first initiation in Early …
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- For the ESFSI and the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia – Trainings in Early WarningThis Autumn 2022, from mid-November to early December, we were honoured to deliver various training programs in Early Warning and Indicators in Tunisia. This cooperation takes place within the framework of the support given to the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia by the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their …
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- War in Ukraine, Europe, and the Weaponization of Winter – Anthropocene Wars (7)(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli, Photo: durik1980, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons, colorised and cropped by RTAS) Since October 2022, the Russian military has regularly launched waves of missiles and drones strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructures. (Greg Myre, “Russia strikes, Ukraine repairs, in a battle to survive the winter”, NPR, 25 November 2022). As a …
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- Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear ThreatStarting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …
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- An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6)(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) From 1 September to 16 September 22, Vladimir Putin, President of the Federation of Russia, presided the Russian military exercises Vostok 2022. Besides the Russian military, the exercise gathered troops from 14 countries, including India and China (Arang Shidore, “Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated”, Responsible Statecraft, …
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- An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, …
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Some customers and references
We strive to build a relationship of trust with every client. We do not publicize our work for our clients. We do not mention the name of our private and public clients when the work is confidential.
Here are some of customers and references we can mention:
EESTI MALU INSTITUUT ･ ALTERRE BOURGOGNE-FRANCHE-COMTE ･ ESFSI ･ CIVIPOL ･ EUROPEAN COMMISSION (PROGRAMS COUNTER-TERRORISM AND PREVENTION OF RADICALISATION) ･ AXA ･ RESOCLUB ･ PJ – SCRC – ONSTS ･ BPI FRANCE ･ NATO INNOVATION CENTER ･ OECD – SWISS CHANCELLERY ･ ARF ･ EEAS ･ TUIC ･ EUROPEAN COMMISSION – LEAGUE OF ARAB STATE LIAISON OFFICE (EC-LASLO) ･ LIFE DEFENSE NATURE ･ SCPO-PSIA ･ ANSSI ･ WEF ･ NORDIS ･ GCSP ･ AXA FUND FOR RESEARCH AND IFRI ･ LUTHER COLLEGE ･