Sense-Making for Geopolitics and the Future: Strategic Foresight and Early Warning, Risk Management
As you understood, our concerns, research and publications are located at the intersection of geopolitics and international security on the one hand, anticipation of the future and uncertainty on the other. Furthermore we aim at being practical, i.e. create actionable strategic foresight and early warning.
To try to make it easier for you to meet your objectives in a complex environment, we offer here an introduction and then two orientations to navigate the website.
As an introduction, we suggest three of our publications:
We briefly present the field, its evolution and some of the challenges faced in the need for strategic foresight and early warning. This article also lays the foundation for our philosophy.
Because we realised over the years and with experience that our field is sometime poorly understood, we tried to find ways to make it easier to understand. We thus offer you a concise FAQ on the topic.
You can also watch our video on “What is political risk” that will bring light to what we do compared with a general approach to “political risk”.
You can read articles from each section, of course!
Practice and Learn Methodology and Tools
If you are interested in learning more about how to do strategic foresight and early warning then you can read our articles from our section on methodology.
Dive in Geopolitical Issues and Stakes
If you are rather interested in geopolitics and international security, in understanding the most pressing issues and what lies ahead, then head to our section focused on geopolitical issues and stakes.
There, you will find all our articles, publications and research grouped by main themes and issues. You will find in-depth analyses, different perceptions on various topics. We also tell you what we currently focus upon, what is on our watch. We deliver warnings, etc.
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Our latest articles
- The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 16 March 2023(The photo was taken by Stefan Seip, one of the ESO Photo Ambassadors This is the 16 March 2023 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan. Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak …
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- China, Saudi Arabia and the Arab AI Rise(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 7 December 2022, China’s president Xi Jinping received a royal welcome at his arrival in Saudi Arabia for a three days state visit. State visits between China and Saudi Arabia heads of state have taken place since 2016. In 2022, President Xi received a royal and considerably warmer welcome than …
- Early Warning for Individuals and Small Businesses – Overcoming Energy Insecurity(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) How can individuals and small business leaders protect themselves against the crises and upheavals that seem to be imposed on them? Can they take advantage of tools that are generally reserved for state actors, especially security forces, and sometimes for large companies? Can such a tool, early warning, be useful for …
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- The ENA of Tunis – Training in Early WarningIn early December 2022, the Ecole Nationale d’Administration (National School of Administration -ENA) de Tunis and its Institute of Leadership Administratif invited the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their incarceration in Tunisia – READ of the Civipol expertise programme for the European Commission to provide a first initiation in Early …
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- For the ESFSI and the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia – Trainings in Early WarningThis Autumn 2022, from mid-November to early December, we were honoured to deliver various training programs in Early Warning and Indicators in Tunisia. This cooperation takes place within the framework of the support given to the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia by the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their …
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- War in Ukraine, Europe, and the Weaponization of Winter – Anthropocene Wars (7)(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli, Photo: durik1980, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons, colorised and cropped by RTAS) Since October 2022, the Russian military has regularly launched waves of missiles and drones strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructures. (Greg Myre, “Russia strikes, Ukraine repairs, in a battle to survive the winter”, NPR, 25 November 2022). As a …
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- Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear ThreatStarting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …
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- An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6)(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) From 1 September to 16 September 22, Vladimir Putin, President of the Federation of Russia, presided the Russian military exercises Vostok 2022. Besides the Russian military, the exercise gathered troops from 14 countries, including India and China (Arang Shidore, “Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated”, Responsible Statecraft, …
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- An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, …
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