Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Fighting rages in Yemen, as the strategic battle for control over Bab el-Mandeb, the West Coast, and its mountainous defense line intensifies. Whatever the current battlefield dynamics, a profound shift occurred in September 2026. On 10 September, the Houthis seized the port city of Mocha, …
Continue reading “The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport”
As energy markets destabilize and old alliances fracture, we look back at our foundational analysis on how civilizations respond to tectonic pressure.
What:
Saudi Arabia is a key actor in the US-Israel vs Iran war thanks to its strategy and geographical location. As a result of the conflict, Saudi Arabia could see its place as major regional actor enhanced. On the short term, much hinges on future Houthis’ actions…
(Art direction and design incl. AI :Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Power for AI Power In both the United States and China, the exponential growth of the AI sector is putting immense pressure on the energy systems of both major powers. This demand for electricity affects the entire AI production and usage chain. The increase in usage by …
Continue reading “Chronicles of the Hyperwar – AI: AI, the New Energy Frontier (1)”
(Art direction:Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: The White House, Public Domain) The Golden Dome rising The Golden Dome, heavily promoted by the Trump administration, is a technostrategy/industrial strategy that is already mobilizing major players in the space and AI sectors, including SpaceX, Starlink, Palantir, and Anduril. In this new landscape shaping the relationship between industry and defense …
Continue reading “SIGNAL – The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier”
Gulf power dynamics and Red Sea security – Structural shifts in regional leadership
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Following the 2026 summit in Davos, the American threat on Greenland has taken a less dramatic turn. However, the issue has not disappeared. Meanwhile, the impacts of the crisis are wide-ranging and will be long-lasting. As a result, we must continue monitoring how events unfold. Critically, we also need …
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-CarliImage: USS Abraham Lincoln, Public Domain) Iran crisis While the mullahs’ regime is carrying out appallingly violent repression against its own population, American political and military authorities are pre-positioning a maritime, air, and land military force of historic proportions in the Persian Gulf. Thus, the confrontation between the American military and Iran …
Continue reading “Signal – Mini-Chronicles (11): Iran, Trump, and China”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 23 December 25, Trump declared again he wanted to take over Greenland.1James Landale and Rachel Hagan, “Trump says US ‘has to have’ Greenland after naming special envoy”, BBC, 23 December 2025. By December 25, tensions over the issue were already high, especially between the U.S. and the Kingdom of Denmark.2See …
Continue reading “The American Threat against Greenland: When Should It Have Triggered a Watch?”
(Art design – featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) During a meeting with senior leaders and decision-makers, one participant remarked how difficult it is to warn about impending or future danger. Doing so entails the risk of being labelled negative or unpleasant, and ultimately pushed aside. In such conditions, how can we carry out proper strategic foresight …
Continue reading “Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot — And What You Can Do About It – Video”
