Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Fighting rages in Yemen, as the strategic battle for control over Bab el-Mandeb, the West Coast, and its mountainous defense line intensifies. Whatever the current battlefield dynamics, a profound shift occurred in September 2026. On 10 September, the Houthis seized the port city of Mocha, …
Continue reading “The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport”
As energy markets destabilize and old alliances fracture, we look back at our foundational analysis on how civilizations respond to tectonic pressure.
What:
Saudi Arabia is a key actor in the US-Israel vs Iran war thanks to its strategy and geographical location. As a result of the conflict, Saudi Arabia could see its place as major regional actor enhanced. On the short term, much hinges on future Houthis’ actions…
(Art direction:Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: The White House, Public Domain) The Golden Dome rising The Golden Dome, heavily promoted by the Trump administration, is a technostrategy/industrial strategy that is already mobilizing major players in the space and AI sectors, including SpaceX, Starlink, Palantir, and Anduril. In this new landscape shaping the relationship between industry and defense …
Continue reading “SIGNAL – The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier”
Gulf power dynamics and Red Sea security – Structural shifts in regional leadership
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 23 December 25, Trump declared again he wanted to take over Greenland.1James Landale and Rachel Hagan, “Trump says US ‘has to have’ Greenland after naming special envoy”, BBC, 23 December 2025. By December 25, tensions over the issue were already high, especially between the U.S. and the Kingdom of Denmark.2See …
Continue reading “The American Threat against Greenland: When Should It Have Triggered a Watch?”
(Art design – featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The tension between the U.S. and China, marked by constant ups and downs between the two giants, has become a permanent feature of the 21st-century international order. It impacts us all. It must be mainstreamed into our analyses, into the way we anticipate and foresee the future. What …
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Given the extreme density of the strategic situations involved, the main focus of this article is the technological dimension of the “12 days war” between Israel and Iran, and the strategic meaning of those technological advances. A new way of war in the Middle East …
Continue reading “AI at War (5) – Israel, Iran and the New (AI) Way of War”
(U.S. Army’s MQ-1C Warrior UAV Photo Courtesy of U.S. Army – Public Domain) In December 2024, the Chinese government ordered one million kamikaze drones for the People’s liberation Army (Dylan Malyasov, “China places massive order for kamikaze drones”, The Defence Blog, 22 December 2024). During the same period, OpenAI, the U.S. giant of generative AI …
Continue reading “AI at War (4): The US-China Drone and Robot Race”
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Combat robots, AI targeted air strikes, new generation cyber and information warfare, AI generated deep-fakes, unmanned air and sea military vehicles, and smart artillery are being currently massively projected on the theatres of operations of Ukraine, Gaza and the Red Sea. As it happens, those new weapons systems are different iterations …
