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Using Videos for Scenarios: The Future Operational Environment 2035-2050

(Screenshot from the video FOE 2035-2050 Army Futures Command) Once valid scenarios for the future are built, we still need to deliver them to policy-makers and decision-makers. We need to understand the various challenges implied by the communication of strategic foresight products, and among them all the biases and traps that may hinder this communication, …

Exploring cascading impacts with AI

Strategic foresight, early warning and risk management require evaluating possible impacts beyond direct effects. Explore cascading effects with Pithia’s AI-powered form. Discover what could be the cascading impacts of a very rapid adoption of generative AI across actors in the Western world… as identified by our AI.

Foreseeing the Future with ChatGPT?

Discover how AI, particularly GPT-like models, can help anticipate the future, and why it matters in the fields of geopolitics and security. In this series of articles, we explore how to ensure technology remains a tool to serve us rather than becoming a slave to it. The first article looks at what GPT models are, why they matter in terms of jobs and occupations, and tests ChatGPT on a specific foresight question.

Get Strategic Foresight and Warning Scenarios with GPT-based AI – Initiation

Discover how AI ChatGPT can help you with actionable strategic foresight and warning by generating possible scenarios for your future concerns. Specify your concern, actor, area, and timeframe to get a precise strategic foresight and warning question and receive sample scenarios. Upgrade your scenarios with AI assistants Kai and Calvin, or learn more with AI assistant Regina or training solutions. Start planning ahead and transforming your concerns into proactive anticipation and prevention.

Early Warning for Individuals and Small Businesses – Overcoming Energy Insecurity

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) How can individuals and small business leaders protect themselves against the crises and upheavals that seem to be imposed on them? Can they take advantage of tools that are generally reserved for state actors, especially security forces, and sometimes for large companies? Can such a tool, early warning, be useful for …

Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat

Starting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …

A FAQ on Geopolitics, Strategic Foresight, Early Warning… and more

What is strategic foresight?Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for …
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A Short FAQ on Scenarios for Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Risk Management

Question: “What is a scenario for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management?”
Answer: For strategic foresight, early warning, risk management or any anticipatory methodology, a scenario is a fictionalized narrative set at a specific time in the future.
It answers a question about the future.
It is grounded in a detailed analysis of this question….

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Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?

(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli using a photograph created by Pete Linforth) Over the last decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded. They continue to do so. Most actors, from governments and international organisations to businesses through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which …

Russia vs the U.S. – The OSCE Istanbul Document

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Within the context of the heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S., Russia, on 1st February 2022, through its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov invokes an article of a 1999 agreement (Reuters, 1 February 2022). What is is this agreement and which article does Lavrov use? The 1999 agreement is actually the …