From the Diaoyu Islands, with Warning

Some keys to understand Chinese perceptions on the Diaoyu Islands, and to assess the potential evolution of its position in the future.

A FAQ on Geopolitics, Strategic Foresight, Early Warning… and more

What is strategic foresight?Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for …
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The Water Sigils

The Water Sigils is an unedited daily scan. It focuses on water security. It has run since May 2012. Come back everyday for an updated scan, with new signals. The scan You can access each original article by clicking on its title. Alternatively read The Water Sigils on Paper.li. The Sigils are a series of …

Assessing the “Strategic” in Strategic Surprise

Strategic foresight and early warning are grounded in the idea of preventing surprise and more specifically strategic surprise. However, if we move away from the general idea of “strategic surprise” and try to be specific, i.e. if we try to apply the concept to a specific threat or issue we try to anticipate, then the …

Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning

A warning does not exist if it is not delivered. This is a key lesson highlighted by the famous expert in warning Cynthia Grabo, who worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980 (Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, Editor’s Preface). Similarly, a foresight product such as scenarios, for example, …

What is an Issue in terms of Strategic Foresight & Warning and Horizon Scanning?

An issue, in terms of warning and by extension SF&W, is “a situation, an objective, an opportunity, a danger, a threat or a risk, which is specific and defined.” (Grabo, 2004) For example, SF&W issues can be interstate and civil wars, fragile states, instability, energy security, oil, economic crisis, global water security, epidemics and pandemics such …

How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War

This article focuses on scenarios for war. It explains first why scenarios need to be mutually exclusive. Then it provides logical templates for building scenarios dealing with war. Finally it offers an updated bibliography of scenarios for Syria over time. Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) Methodology to …

Mapping the Race to Quantum Computing: The UK National Quantum Technologies Programme

Quantum computing and more generally Quantum Information Science (QIS) are more than ever on the global agenda. We focus here on the UK National Quantum Technologies Programme and policy, and how the UK fares in the race to quantum technologies. This article is part of our ongoing research on the issue. With the first item …

Creating Everstate

Everstate is an imaginary state in our contemporary world of the beginning of the 21st century, created to identify and imagine various futures. It will be used to represent all states and each state. Everstate is thus an ideal-type state. It is also a shorthand for the model that was constructed to represent the dynamics …

Creating Evertime

Time in strategic foresight and warning is a crucial problem, as underlined in “Time in Strategic Foresight and Risk Management” and pointed out in “Everstate’s characteristics“. We shall still need much effort and research before to obtain detailed, proper and actionable timelines – and this without even considering timeliness. For the Chronicles of Everstate, we …

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