Assessing the “Strategic” in Strategic Surprise

Strategic foresight and early warning are grounded in the idea of preventing surprise and more specifically strategic surprise. However, if we move away from the general idea of “strategic surprise” and try to be specific, i.e. if we try to apply the concept to a specific threat or issue we try to anticipate, then the …

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No94, 4 April 2013

Frailties and Contagion: A bug is creating strange phenomena with the editing process this week, but there is still a lot to read, even if it is not always on the front page. The focus for the week is, besides the East Asian rising tensions, on the Middle East and the Syrian conflict increasingly impacting …

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No74, 15 November 2012

No74 – 15 November 2012 Patterns, battles and conflicts, ongoing, escalating or to come, emerge as articles are read in clusters, as a system: e.g. US as top oil producer with Peak oil theorists disagreeing, the battle for the Arctic, Chinese Energy thinking and 6C increase in temperatures. Click on image to read on Paper.li …

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No69, 11 October 2012

No69 – 11 October 2012 Potential stabilisation in the East China Sea, with a move from Japan, still uncertain improvement considering Japanese domestic tensions. Meanwhile the situation in the Middle East and in Europe deteriorates. Most notably, the participation of reservists to the demonstrations yesterday in Greece could be a weak signal of potential escalation. …

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No56, 13 July 2012

No56 – 13 July 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets) As we are testing new ways to gather weak signals, and as the results obtained yesterday were not satisfying, this week, exceptionally, The Weekly is published on Friday. It will resume being published on Thursdays …

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No43, 12 April 2012

No43 – 12 April 2012 Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)

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