Investment
€ 2.500
excl. VAT — applied at checkout
according to status & location (€ 3.000 incl. VAT)
Includes 6 months online access, course materials, and one live one-to-one hour with Dr Lavoix.
Also included: certificate of completion · access to premium articles (course readings & Methodology section) · 10% off Course 2 – Anticipate the Future: Build Your Scenarios for Geopolitical Risk and Crisis · 10% off Platinum Membership.
Group enrolment? Contact us for team pricing.
Online Course · Analytical Model
Anticipate the Future:
Build Your Strategic Model
for Geopolitical Risk and Crisis
A rigorous, step-by-step course in strategic foresight and early warning — from foundational process to a working causal model you build yourself, applied to a real issue of your choice.
With this course you will enhance your practical skills to anticipate global risks, geopolitical risk and crisis, instability, war, international and national political and security threats, including energy and resource security, as well as opportunities, in a rapidly evolving world environment.
“It might be said that the most serious danger in foresight is not a lack of knowledge, but an illusion of understanding. A core component of the RTAS methodology is to build an explicit structural claim of causation to help overcome human cognition’s fundamental unsuitability for understanding or predicting outcomes in complex systems. […] The gap between what I thought I knew and what I now know after personalised training is significant. I can highly recommend individual or group training and model auditing by Dr Hélène Lavoix.” B. Butler, Professional Investor — Read full testimonial
On this page
Overview & Benefits For Whom Programme Content Testimonial FAQDocumentation
Course Brochure (PDF)See the Bundle →
Why this course matters now
Why Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis
Is Not Automatable — And Why That Matters
This course is designed around thinking — not outsourcing. While AI and automation can speed up simple tasks, they cannot replicate the depth of understanding that comes from building a strategic causal graph by hand. The process forces you to make sense of complexity, to test assumptions, and to see dynamics emerge.
Models generated automatically may look impressive, but without the human reasoning behind each node and edge, they are likely to miss critical causal links — and worse, mislead the decision-maker who relies on them.
Causal inference and causal knowledge graphs have been part of the RTAS methodology for almost twenty years. They are now also at the frontier of the most advanced research in artificial intelligence. That is why this course focuses on equipping you — not replacing you.
Regularly updated to integrate the latest tools and research, including the May 2026 Gephi update, this course keeps pace with a rapidly evolving field.
The course in a few words
From Process to Model:
A Step-by-Step Course in Strategic Foresight and Early Warning
The Course — Analytical Model — is focused on analysis. You will practically develop, step by step, your anticipatory analytical skills to tackle complex geopolitical, political and global issues. You will then be able to use this practice with most strategic foresight and warning, risk management and anticipatory methodologies. You will notably learn to properly map an issue for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management.
Including many practical examples and exercises from the real world, the course is designed and taught specifically for general managers of small and medium-sized companies, senior managers and officers, and analysts, to help them overcome the many challenges they face and develop further analytical excellence.
With the new skills and understanding you will have mastered you will be able to improve existing products or even create new ones for decision-makers regarding risk management and surprise avoidance — early warnings reports and notifications, threat assessments and horizon scanning boards. You will also be able to set up and facilitate workshops infusing them with the tools and capabilities learned during the course.
Media Presentation
Video and Podcast summaries
What you will gain
Key Benefits
- Review the fundamentals of anticipation – why foreseeing the future matters, which elements must be included, and what the overall process entails.
- Identify biases of all types — one of the major enemies of analysts — and learn how to mitigate them.
- Demystify analytical models and become an expert at modelling through a progressive, accessible use of graphs (or map) and networks.
- Master dynamic political analysis and enhance your ability to read evolving situations.
- Map any international or national security issue properly for anticipation analysis — making sure you are not preparing to fight the last war.
- Use your graph to enhance your analysis, carry out early warning and be fully prepared for scenario-building (Course 2).
- Improve or create products and documents for decision-makers — early warning briefs and notifications, threat assessments, horizon scanning boards — using the skills and tools from the course.
- Design and facilitate workshops by infusing them with the tools and capabilities mastered in this course.
“This course is one of the few that are actually useful, putting theory into practice. I learned so much in the way of foresight and warning that I began to consider a viable career in risk analysis and crisis management.”
Nicole Stroner — Alumni Master student, Sciences-Po PSIA – Analyst at The Asia Group, United States
“I was fortunate enough to take Dr. Lavoix’s first on-line course on Risk and Anticipation. I strongly recommend this clever and useful teaching and learning experience — not only to those in the safety and security field, but to anyone in an applied social science domain.”
Charles Lord Jr., MSW, PhD — Director, International Student Services and Outreach, Center for Global Engagement, Longwood UniversityWho is this course for?
Participant Profile
This course is particularly suited to professionals who need to anticipate complex, fast-moving geopolitical and global issues — and who must do so rigorously.
General Managers
of small and medium-sized companies navigating geopolitical disruption
Senior Leaders
in public sector and third sector organisations facing disruptive geopolitical change
Analysts
from diplomacy, defence, the military, and the private sector handling geopolitical and political threats
Students
interested in geopolitics, international security, and the future — at postgraduate level
Lewis Chess pieces — British Museum — photos by Paul Hudson, CC BY 2.0
Standards and credentials
Teaching and Training Quality
This course benefits from the online learning environment while remaining grounded in classical high-level academic teaching credentials, executive training experience, and deep practical expertise in international relations and geopolitical analysis.
Course designer and trainer
Dr Hélène Lavoix holds a PhD in International Politics (SOAS, University of London), a MSc in International Politics of Asia (Distinction, SOAS), and a Master in Finance (ISC Paris — Valedictorian). She has specialised in strategic foresight and early warning for over 20 years and is an experienced trainer and lecturer across international institutions.
The course is entirely created by Dr Lavoix from her knowledge and experience. It includes one hour one-to-one live with Dr Lavoix, comprised in the course enrolment.
The programmes are grounded in scientific and academic knowledge as well as practical experience of international relations, political and geopolitical analysis, and strategic foresight and early warning.
Audio recording
The course audio was first recorded by Dr Lavoix herself. She then revised and checked the full transcript. For reasons of audio quality and consistency, she subsequently used her cloned voice to produce the final audio from the revised transcript, and reviewed the recording a final time.
Course updates
Course content is reviewed and updated to reflect changes in tools and methodology. The Gephi tutorials were updated in May 2026 following the release of a new version of the software. Current enrolments access the most recent version.
What you will study
Programme Content — The Course Syllabus
The course runs across 14 units in 4 modules, planned for completion over 12 weeks. It includes video lectures, exercises, examples from the real geopolitical world, quizzes, readings, and hands-on software tutorials. Throughout the course you are guided to progressively apply what you learn to a real issue of your own choosing.
Module 1 · 2 units
The Mission of the Strategic Foresight and Warning Analyst
What is involved in anticipating national and international security issues or political and geopolitical problems. Why it matters for public, corporate, and third-sector actors. This modules stresses the main aims analysts seek to attain, the major challenges they face, and the overall process and methodology for strategic foresight and warning.
Module 2 · 5 units
The Fundamentals of an Analysis
The module first focuses on a rigorous treatment of biases — cognitive, emotional, normative — as the primary enemies of sound analysis, with mitigation strategies for each. It then demystifies models and progressively introduces the use of graphs and networks for analytical modelling.
Module 3 · tutorials
Software for Analysis
Introduction to two free or open-source tools used throughout the rest of the course. Step-by-step tutorials allow you to become fully operational before moving into applied analysis. (Updated May 2026 to incorporate the latest version of Gephi.)
Module 4 · 4–5 units + tutorials
Building Your Graph: From Factors to Variables to the Full Model
Building progressively on all previous modules, you learn to construct a full causal graph for a national or international security issue, optimised for strategic foresight, early warning, and risk analysis. You will improve your skills at identifying those actors and factors crucial for analysing geopolitical, global and national/domestic security issues. You will become familiar with transforming them in a way that allows for proper future-oriented analysis. Finally, this module explains how to put everything together to obtain a model that is usable across needs. .
What participants say
Testimonials
“It might be said that the most serious danger in foresight is not a lack of knowledge, but an illusion of understanding. A core component of the RTAS methodology is to build an explicit structural claim of causation to help overcome human cognition’s fundamental unsuitability for understanding or predicting outcomes in complex systems. […] The gap between what I thought I knew and what I now know after personalised training is significant. I can highly recommend individual or group training and model auditing by Dr Hélène Lavoix.”
B. Butler, Professional Investor — Read full testimonial“I was fortunate enough to take Dr. Lavoix’s first on-line course on Risk and Anticipation. I strongly recommend this clever and useful teaching and learning experience — not only to those who are in the safety and security field, but truly to anyone in an otherwise applied social science domain. The scenario building tools she provides are applicable to any arena where decision analysis applies. Indeed, as the Director of a language Institute in Casablanca, I’ve had cause to refer back to this course several times. For those already working within a geopolitical arena, or simply students of political science itself, the bibliography she provides is a treasure. Being able to pace yourself through the course, coupled with Dr. Lavoix’s accessibility, makes for a deep learning experience. Certainly, when my own schedule permits I shall embark on the second course in the series.”
Charles Lord Jr., MSW, PhD — Director, International Student Services and Outreach, Center for Global Engagement, Longwood University“This course is one of the few that are actually useful, putting theory into practice. I learned so much in the way of foresight and warning that I began to consider a viable career in risk analysis and crisis management.”
Nicole Stroner — Alumni Master student, Sciences-Po PSIA – Analyst at The Asia Group, United StatesPractical information
Learning Experience and FAQ
Learning Experience
How much time should I plan each week?
Plan approximately 7 to 8 hours per week, plus a couple of additional hours — especially for Module 4 — as you apply what you have learned to your own issue of concern. Expect roughly 1 hour of video lectures, 1–2 hours of exercises and quizzes, 3–4 hours of reading, and 2–3 hours applying the learning to your project.
What is the weekly learning pace?
The course comprises 14 units across 4 modules, planned for 12 weeks (the tutorials of Module 3 count as one week). The programme is designed with sufficient flexibility for you to study at your own pace within each week.
Can I work ahead of the planned schedule?
You can study ahead, but this should not come at the expense of reading and practice. The methodology requires genuine assimilation — moving too fast without applying what you have learned reduces the value of the course significantly.
Do I need to be online at specific times?
The programme is fully asynchronous — video lectures, tests, exercises — so you can study at any time. The one exception is the included one-to-one live hour with Dr Lavoix, which is arranged by email at a time convenient for both of you. We recommend taking this hour towards the end of your training, when you are best placed to ask questions.
Can I access the content after the 12 weeks?
Yes — you have access to all online resources for up to 6 months from the start date. You can return to any unit as many times as you need throughout that period.
When and how do I book my one-to-one hour with Dr Lavoix?
Simply send us an email once you approximately know when you would like this hour to take place. We will arrange a time convenient for both you and Dr Lavoix. Please plan at least two weeks in advance.
Requirements and Certification
What do I need to do to complete the course?
To successfully complete the online programme and earn certification you must:
- Complete all in-platform learning activities
- Earn a minimum of 50% on all tests
If you have also taken the tutoring programme and submitted a project, you additionally need a minimum grade of 60% on the project.
What do I receive upon completion?
Participants who meet the requirements receive an official Certificate of Completion from the Red Team Analysis Society, which can also be showcased on LinkedIn. If you have completed the tutoring programme with a satisfactory project grade, your final project grade will be noted in a reference letter from your trainer.
Technical Questions
What equipment do I need?
The course runs on desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones. It requires an Internet connection — offline access is not supported, though some content such as slides and exercises can be downloaded. Supported browsers: Chrome 31+, Safari 7+, Firefox 26+.
How do I access the course once enrolled?
After enrolment, your course, progress, and all units are accessible from My Account → Courses and from My Online Courses in the navigation menu.
Bundle and Groups
What is the relationship between Course 1 and Course 2?
This course (Analytical Model) is the first of a two-course programme on strategic foresight and warning. Course 2 – Anticipate the Future: Build Your Scenarios for Geopolitical Risk and Crisis focuses on scenario-building, and is designed to be taken after Course 1. The analytical model you build in Course 1 becomes the foundation for the scenarios you develop in Course 2.
Is there an advantage to taking both courses together?
Yes. The bundle (Course 1 + Course 2) is available at € 3.750 excl. VAT — a saving of 25% versus the two courses purchased separately. You also benefit from extended access: one year instead of the six months for each individual course.
Can I register a group?
Yes — contact us for group pricing. We encourage group participation, as interaction between participants fosters learning. For organisations wishing to combine enrolment with live tutoring, note that for reasons of confidentiality we do not mix participants from different organisations in the same tutoring group.
Is live tutoring available in addition to the course?
Yes. In addition to the included one-to-one hour, you can add further live tutoring sessions or a full executive tutoring programme. See the Live Tutoring for Online Courses and Executive Tutoring & Advisory pages for details and pricing.
Register for Course 1 — Analytical Model
€ 2.500
excl. VAT — VAT applied at checkout according to status and location (€ 3.000 incl. VAT)
Questions? Contact us — or download the Training Portfolio (PDF).
