The articles in this section focus directly on real world issues with geopolitical stakes.
Here you will find in-depth analyses.They are sorted out by issues presented below. You can also access our scans, i.e. information collected to identify signals, presented without analysis.
Then, we explain how we select issues and finally you can access the latest articles published.
French translations: Only recent articles are human translations. We gradually review the automatic translation (DeepL) of the remaining 600 plus articles…
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Geopolitics by Issues
Access the articles in this section by chapters.
Our new initiative Climate Change, Planetary Boundaries and Geopolitical Stakes – incl. Water security, Energy security and Extreme environments (Arctic, Antarctica, Space, Deep Sea, etc.) besides Environmental Geostrategy
Pandemics – incl. the COVID-19 Pandemic
War – incl. Ukraine, The Islamic State, Syria, Libya
Photos and Art Design by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli (images 1,3,6), Pixabay (2,5), various public domain (4).
Monitoring and Scanning
Our scanning and monitoring is grounded in years of practice and in-depth knowledge and experience of research for political and geopolitical issues.
Our complimentary scans are discontinued. We only provide scans on a commissioned basis.
The Sigils: a series of daily, raw (non edited) scans. Each focuses on a specific issue.
The Red Team Analysis Weekly scanned the horizon every week for weak – and less weak – signals regarding all political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties, as well as national and global changes and instability, using crowdsourcing.
Horizon Scanning Board
(demonstration sample only) – The system provides selected open source intelligence – OSINT – signals that are particularly interesting, among all the signals identified. The collection of signals provided here are a demonstration sample only.
Photos from ESO Photo Ambassadors
How we select geopolitical issues
In this section, we address the major issues our contemporary world faces. These issues may obviously be part of geopolitics, for example the crisis and conflict in Ukraine or the Islamic State and terrorism. They may also surprise you because they are not usually think about as related to geopolitics, as with the COVID-19 pandemic.
What determines if an issue must be put under watch and analysed is the impact it has on the security of polities and societies, hence the larger field of “international security”, which is more adequate as a category than geopolitics.
The issues we address may be mainstream and correspond to acute crises at one stage, or, on the contrary ignored by the media and larger public.
It is absolutely crucial to consider the issues belonging to the second category. Indeed the deeper processes run in the background, often below collective perception level, but fundamentally influence and constrain our choices. They must thus be known and explored. Furthermore, they will often lead to apparently sudden crises. If we make an analogy with volcanoes, you can imagine these deeper dynamics and issues as the earth mantle and plates, slowly changing and reorganising themselves, while this very reorganisation leads to pressure and volcanic eruption. A perfect example for this type of issues is climate change and all environmental problems.
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Our latest articles
- AI at War (2) – Preparing for the US-China War?(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Darkening clouds (of drones) On 28 August 2023, on the Island of Guam, Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Secretary of Defense, gave a speech at a military and media crowd about the need for the U.S. to mass produce drones in order to outsize the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (Deputy Secretary …
Continue reading “AI at War (2) – Preparing for the US-China War?”
- Niger: a New Severe Threat for the Future of France’s Nuclear Energy?(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 19 June 2024, Niger has revoked French nuclear state company Orano’s mining permit for the Imouraren mine. This means that Orano – and thus France – loses 47% of its uranium reserves, when an era of renewal for nuclear energy starts globally and when France plans to add …
Continue reading “Niger: a New Severe Threat for the Future of France’s Nuclear Energy?”
- Revisiting Uranium Supply Security (1)(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) In December 2023, twenty two governments and the nuclear industry decided to treble nuclear energy by 2050. If we are to meet this objective, then the corresponding uranium supply must be adequate. Globally, there is enough uranium to see the aims met (see Uranium and the Renewal of Nuclear …
- The Future of Uranium Demand – China’s Surge(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The world is poised to make the effort to treble its nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Even though uranium reserves are meant to be abundant and widespread worldwide, the necessity of producing uranium from mines, with long timelines from exploration to extraction and milling, added to the fate of …
Continue reading “The Future of Uranium Demand – China’s Surge”
- Uranium and the Renewal of Nuclear Energy(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) A new era starts for nuclear energy. The December 2023 “Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy by 2050”, signed by 22 states, officially cemented the beginning of the renewal of nuclear energy (see Helene Lavoix, “The Return of Nuclear Energy“, The Red Team Analysis Society, 26 March 2024). Then, on …
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- AI at War (1) – Ukraine(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Combat robots, AI targeted air strikes, new generation cyber and information warfare, AI generated deep-fakes, unmanned air and sea military vehicles, and smart artillery are being currently massively projected on the theatres of operations of Ukraine, Gaza and the Red Sea. As it happens, those new weapons systems are different iterations …
- Anticipate and Get Ready for the Future – PodcastStrategic Foresight or How Not to Be Surprised. Listen to Dr Helene Lavoix’s interview by Julien Devaureix for Sismique, “the channel with over 4 million listeners.“ “In today’s highly volatile and rapidly changing environment, it is imperative for our contemporary societies and for all players, whether private or public, to reduce the uncertainty associated with …
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- The Return of Nuclear Energy(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 21 March 2024, thirty two heads of states and governments and special envoys met in Brussels for a summit that received little media attention, despite a very high level attendance. This meeting was the first ever Nuclear Energy Summit, jointly hosted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) …
- Climate Change, Planetary Boundaries and Geopolitical StakesAdapting and Making the World Sustainable Again Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Geopolitics Serve the Future Planetary boundaries* are being overstepped. These changes are fundamentally upsetting our world. These mutations are here to last, spread and increase. We must act now. We must prepare to adapt to the myriad of alterations taking place in all …
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