The articles in this section focus directly on real world issues with geopolitical stakes.
Here you will find in-depth analyses.They are sorted out by issues presented below. You can also access our scans, i.e. information collected to identify signals, presented without analysis.
Then, we explain how we select issues and finally you can access the latest articles published.
French translations: Only recent articles are human translations. We gradually review the automatic translation (DeepL) of the remaining 600 plus articles…
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Geopolitics by Issues
Access the articles in this section by chapters.
Our new initiative Climate Change, Planetary Boundaries and Geopolitical Stakes – incl. Water security, Energy security and Extreme environments (Arctic, Antarctica, Space, Deep Sea, etc.) besides Environmental Geostrategy
Pandemics – incl. the COVID-19 Pandemic
War – incl. Ukraine, The Islamic State, Syria, Libya
Photos and Art Design by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli (images 1,3,6), Pixabay (2,5), various public domain (4).
Monitoring and Scanning
Our scanning and monitoring is grounded in years of practice and in-depth knowledge and experience of research for political and geopolitical issues.
The Sigils are a series of daily, raw (non edited) scans. Each focuses on a specific issue. They are provided through the platform Paper.Li.
The Red Team Analysis Weekly scans the horizon every week for weak – and less weak – signals regarding all political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties, as well as national and global changes and instability, using crowdsourcing.
Horizon Scanning Board
(demonstration sample only) – The system provides selected open source intelligence – OSINT – signals that are particularly interesting, among all the signals identified. The collection of signals provided here are a demonstration sample only.
Photos from ESO Photo Ambassadors
How we select geopolitical issues
In this section, we address the major issues our contemporary world faces. These issues may obviously be part of geopolitics, for example the crisis and conflict in Ukraine or the Islamic State and terrorism. They may also surprise you because they are not usually think about as related to geopolitics, as with the COVID-19 pandemic.
What determines if an issue must be put under watch and analysed is the impact it has on the security of polities and societies, hence the larger field of “international security”, which is more adequate as a category than geopolitics.
The issues we address may be mainstream and correspond to acute crises at one stage, or, on the contrary ignored by the media and larger public.
It is absolutely crucial to consider the issues belonging to the second category. Indeed the deeper processes run in the background, often below collective perception level, but fundamentally influence and constrain our choices. They must thus be known and explored. Furthermore, they will often lead to apparently sudden crises. If we make an analogy with volcanoes, you can imagine these deeper dynamics and issues as the earth mantle and plates, slowly changing and reorganising themselves, while this very reorganisation leads to pressure and volcanic eruption. A perfect example for this type of issues is climate change and all environmental problems.
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Our latest articles
- The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 2 February 2023
(The photo was taken by Stefan Seip, one of the ESO Photo Ambassadors This is the 2 February 2023 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan. Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak …Continue reading “The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 2 February 2023”
- China, Saudi Arabia and the Arab AI Rise
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 7 December 2022, China’s president Xi Jinping received a royal welcome at his arrival in Saudi Arabia for a three days state visit. State visits between China and Saudi Arabia heads of state have taken place since 2016. In 2022, President Xi received a royal and considerably warmer welcome than … - Early Warning for Individuals and Small Businesses – Overcoming Energy Insecurity
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) How can individuals and small business leaders protect themselves against the crises and upheavals that seem to be imposed on them? Can they take advantage of tools that are generally reserved for state actors, especially security forces, and sometimes for large companies? Can such a tool, early warning, be useful for …Continue reading “Early Warning for Individuals and Small Businesses – Overcoming Energy Insecurity”
- The ENA of Tunis – Training in Early Warning
In early December 2022, the Ecole Nationale d’Administration (National School of Administration -ENA) de Tunis and its Institute of Leadership Administratif invited the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their incarceration in Tunisia – READ of the Civipol expertise programme for the European Commission to provide a first initiation in Early …Continue reading “The ENA of Tunis – Training in Early Warning”
- For the ESFSI and the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia – Trainings in Early Warning
This Autumn 2022, from mid-November to early December, we were honoured to deliver various training programs in Early Warning and Indicators in Tunisia. This cooperation takes place within the framework of the support given to the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia by the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their … - War in Ukraine, Europe, and the Weaponization of Winter – Anthropocene Wars (7)
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli, Photo: durik1980, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons, colorised and cropped by RTAS) Since October 2022, the Russian military has regularly launched waves of missiles and drones strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructures. (Greg Myre, “Russia strikes, Ukraine repairs, in a battle to survive the winter”, NPR, 25 November 2022). As a …Continue reading “War in Ukraine, Europe, and the Weaponization of Winter – Anthropocene Wars (7)”
- Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat
Starting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …Continue reading “Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat”
- An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6)
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) From 1 September to 16 September 22, Vladimir Putin, President of the Federation of Russia, presided the Russian military exercises Vostok 2022. Besides the Russian military, the exercise gathered troops from 14 countries, including India and China (Arang Shidore, “Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated”, Responsible Statecraft, …Continue reading “An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6)”
- An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, …Continue reading “An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia”
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