Flag_of_Syria_(2011_combined)Keeping in mind the complex and fluid character of the situation in Syria, we present below entry points to the state of play and the various categories of actors fighting in and over Syria.

Scenarios for the future (built in 2013) are available. The scenarios evolve, notably in terms of likelihood, out of changes on the battleground and interactions between all actors.

The evolution which is more specifically focused on the Islamic State is addressed in the corresponding section as it is broader in scope than war in Syria (see notably: At War against the Islamic State – From Syria to the Region by H Lavoix, 2 November 2015).

The latest phase of the war in Syria, starting end of 2016 beginning of 2017 is then tackled. See also the corresponding signals (open access) in the Horizon Scanning Board.

Sections relative to methodology and bibliography can be found at the bottom of the page.

Open Access



Scenarios (2013)

(A full report in pdf – Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War, published on 15 July 2013 is also available).

State of Play (up until 2014)



Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the rise of China, the COVID-19 Pandemic, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

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