The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 26 May 2022

This is the 26 May 2022 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan. The signals of this issue are neither edited nor sorted out. They are the raw result of the algorithmic process and …

Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli on a photo by Francesco Ungaro) The war(*) in Ukraine is hastening changes in international politics in many different ways. The possibility to see the conflict morphing into World War III acts as a convincing spur for continuing efforts at understanding and adapting. Concerned and informed actors are thus trying to …

War in Ukraine, Megadrought and the Coming Global Food Crisis – Anthropocene Wars (3)

The War in Ukraine as a Perfect Storm The war in Ukraine triggers a global whirlwind involving energy and food crisis. The latter is quite singular, because it combines the consequences of the war on the global agricultural system with massive extreme weather events, such as the U.S. midwestern megadrought. War as global disruption Indeed, …

Advanced Training in Early Warning Systems & Indicators – ESFSI in Tunisia

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) At the end of March 2022, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia organised its fourth intensive training on early warning systems & indicators. It is part of its programme on the “management of social conflict.” This time, we set up with the management …

Nuclear Battlefields in Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (2)

A nuclear theatre of operations (Art Direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: Recognize Productions via Pexels). On 24 February 2022, at the very start of Russian offensive against Ukraine, after a two days battle, the Russian forces took over the Chernobyl power plant, where the historic nuclear accident occurred in 1986 (Mary Kekatos, “Seizure of Chernobyl plant …

The East Seas Security Sigils

The East Seas Security Sigils is an unedited daily scan. It focuses on security in the East Seas. It has run since May 2012. Access it below. Come back everyday for an updated scan, with new signals. A brief presentation The East Seas Security Sigils aims to allow monitoring easily with open source what is happening …

From the Diaoyu Islands, with Warning

Some keys to understand Chinese perceptions on the Diaoyu Islands, and to assess the potential evolution of its position in the future.

A FAQ on Geopolitics, Strategic Foresight, Early Warning… and more

What is strategic foresight?Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for …
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The Water Sigils

The Water Sigils is an unedited daily scan. It focuses on water security. It has run since May 2012. Come back everyday for an updated scan, with new signals. The scan You can access each original article by clicking on its title. Alternatively read The Water Sigils on Paper.li. The Sigils are a series of …

Climate Change, Planetary Boundaries and Geopolitical Stakes

Adapting and Making the World Sustainable Again Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Geopolitics Serve the Future Planetary boundaries* are being overstepped. These changes are fundamentally upsetting our world. These mutations are here to last, spread and increase. We must act now. We must prepare to adapt to the myriad of alterations taking place in all …

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