Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Fighting rages in Yemen, as the strategic battle for control over Bab el-Mandeb, the West Coast, and its mountainous defense line intensifies. Whatever the current battlefield dynamics, a profound shift occurred in September 2026. On 10 September, the Houthis seized the port city of Mocha, …
Continue reading “The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport”
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) When exploring how geopolitics and critical mineral supply chains — here, Lithium — may interact and impact each other, the first thing to do is to find out where the deposits of a critical mineral are located, how much resource is estimated within those deposits …
Continue reading “The Strange Mystery of Bolivia’s Lithium Reserves”
What:
Saudi Arabia is a key actor in the US-Israel vs Iran war thanks to its strategy and geographical location. As a result of the conflict, Saudi Arabia could see its place as major regional actor enhanced. On the short term, much hinges on future Houthis’ actions…
(Art direction:Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: The White House, Public Domain) The Golden Dome rising The Golden Dome, heavily promoted by the Trump administration, is a technostrategy/industrial strategy that is already mobilizing major players in the space and AI sectors, including SpaceX, Starlink, Palantir, and Anduril. In this new landscape shaping the relationship between industry and defense …
Continue reading “SIGNAL – The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Following the 2026 summit in Davos, the American threat on Greenland has taken a less dramatic turn. However, the issue has not disappeared. Meanwhile, the impacts of the crisis are wide-ranging and will be long-lasting. As a result, we must continue monitoring how events unfold. Critically, we also need …
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-CarliImage: USS Abraham Lincoln, Public Domain) Iran crisis While the mullahs’ regime is carrying out appallingly violent repression against its own population, American political and military authorities are pre-positioning a maritime, air, and land military force of historic proportions in the Persian Gulf. Thus, the confrontation between the American military and Iran …
Continue reading “Signal – Mini-Chronicles (11): Iran, Trump, and China”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 23 December 25, Trump declared again he wanted to take over Greenland.1James Landale and Rachel Hagan, “Trump says US ‘has to have’ Greenland after naming special envoy”, BBC, 23 December 2025. By December 25, tensions over the issue were already high, especially between the U.S. and the Kingdom of Denmark.2See …
Continue reading “The American Threat against Greenland: When Should It Have Triggered a Watch?”
(Art design – featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) During a meeting with senior leaders and decision-makers, one participant remarked how difficult it is to warn about impending or future danger. Doing so entails the risk of being labelled negative or unpleasant, and ultimately pushed aside. In such conditions, how can we carry out proper strategic foresight …
Continue reading “Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot — And What You Can Do About It – Video”
(Art design – featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The tension between the U.S. and China, marked by constant ups and downs between the two giants, has become a permanent feature of the 21st-century international order. It impacts us all. It must be mainstreamed into our analyses, into the way we anticipate and foresee the future. What …
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli – Photo: The USS Gerald R. Ford US DVIDS) Thunder in the Caribbean Since 17 August 2025, the US Southern Command has dramatically scaled up its presence and activity in the Caribbean. For example, the Command has deployed 4,000 Marines against narco-terrorist cartels. There is also a massive naval …
