Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Fighting rages in Yemen, as the strategic battle for control over Bab el-Mandeb, the West Coast, and its mountainous defense line intensifies. Whatever the current battlefield dynamics, a profound shift occurred in September 2026. On 10 September, the Houthis seized the port city of Mocha, …
Continue reading “The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport”
What:
Saudi Arabia is a key actor in the US-Israel vs Iran war thanks to its strategy and geographical location. As a result of the conflict, Saudi Arabia could see its place as major regional actor enhanced. On the short term, much hinges on future Houthis’ actions…
Gulf power dynamics and Red Sea security – Structural shifts in regional leadership
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-CarliImage: USS Abraham Lincoln, Public Domain) Iran crisis While the mullahs’ regime is carrying out appallingly violent repression against its own population, American political and military authorities are pre-positioning a maritime, air, and land military force of historic proportions in the Persian Gulf. Thus, the confrontation between the American military and Iran …
Continue reading “Signal – Mini-Chronicles (11): Iran, Trump, and China”
Starlink and the Iran shutdown I. Starlink vs. Russia, Iran II. The Iranian Strategic Rupture III. On the Future of Starlink and Hyperwarfare Why is this important for French and European companies?
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Aramco, the Saudi state-owned giant oil company has developed “Metabrain”, an extremely powerful Large Language Model (LLM), with 250 billion parameters, and a trillion parameters version planned for launch by the end of 2025. Metabrain is trained with the oil and geological data that the …
Continue reading “Petrodollars for AI – Is AI the Future of the Oil and Gas Industry ? “
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Given the extreme density of the strategic situations involved, the main focus of this article is the technological dimension of the “12 days war” between Israel and Iran, and the strategic meaning of those technological advances. A new way of war in the Middle East …
Continue reading “AI at War (5) – Israel, Iran and the New (AI) Way of War”
(Image: UK MOD, OGL v1.0OGL v1.0, via Wikimedia Commons ) AI is everywhere in the current Middle East wars. In the Gaza war, triggered by the monstruous massacre inflicted by the Hamas militia on 7 October 2023, the Israel military is using machine learning in order to produce targets in Gaza ( “Octobre 7: How …
Continue reading “AI at War (3) – Hyperwar in the Middle east”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Given the speed and political density of the historic sequence opened by the war in Gaza, this third article only covers the period from 20 October 2023 to 10 February 2024. In December 2023, the Pentagon launched Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea. The operation is the U.S. …
Continue reading “Apocalypse in the Red Sea – Anthropocene Wars (9)”
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli – design with DALL-E 2) Given the speed and political density of the historic sequence opened by the war in Gaza, the second article in this new RTAS series only covers the period from 27 October to 20 November 2023. In the first part of this series, we saw how the …
Continue reading “From the War in Gaza to the Great U.S.-China War (2)?”
