Which Country has the most Influence in the World?

(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Given the escalating geopolitical tensions at the beginning of 2024, it is crucial to understand the evolution of the international influence of players on the world stage and its trends. In this article, we offer a vision of this international influence and how it changed over time, since the …

Using Videos for Scenarios: The Future Operational Environment 2035-2050

(Screenshot from the video FOE 2035-2050 Army Futures Command) Once valid scenarios for the future are built, we still need to deliver them to policy-makers and decision-makers. We need to understand the various challenges implied by the communication of strategic foresight products, and among them all the biases and traps that may hinder this communication, …

Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat

Starting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …

The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the other. This confrontation takes place at different levels and through all forms and dimensions of power. The escalation towards war is at work. War is not inevitable, it is however …

The American National Interest

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Do the United States still consider France to be their ally? We have to ponder this question because of the submarine contract signed between France and Australia, and broken in September 2021, to the benefit of the U.S.. If a country takes 35 billion euros from you, possibly revalued to 55 …

The Fifth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Lethality

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) As the global fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has now started, should we be worried about it? How lethal will it be? This article and the next will focus on direct health-related impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic fifth wave. Indeed, these effects are those that determine all others. Here, we …

The Military and the “Climate Blowback” – Summer 2021 (1)

The impacts of climate change are intensifying. Some of these are the multiplying extreme weather events, such as mega wildfires and giant floods. The intensity and the scale of these events are now so important threatening for infrastructures, ecosystems and human life, that they entail a growing mobilisation of military forces. Thus, we need to …

China’s Perception of U.S. International Politics

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The relationships between the two superpowers, the U.S. and China, dominate the international world. Here, we look at the way China perceives American foreign relations. How the U.S. perceives China and how much the former sees the latter as a threat, what this will entail in terms of future American actions …

When Seas and Maps Impact Geostrategy and the Future

Sovereign territory is key for power and for activities. This principle will most probably remain more or less so in the foreseeable future. Thus, what is the territory over which each state is sovereign? What is the size of each of these territories? And where are these territories located? How does the geographical international world …

Losing Texas to Climate Change and the COVID-19?

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) From Texas with Cold In February 2021, a “polar vortex ” swept through the U.S. and triggered a “perfect (winter) storm” that ravaged Texas (Johny Diaz, Guilia Mc Donnell, Nieto del Rio, Richar Faussett, “ Texas extreme cold snap has killed residents in their homes, cars and backyards”, SBS News, 20 …

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