(Screenshot from the video FOE 2035-2050
Army Futures Command)

Once valid scenarios for the future are built, we still need to deliver them to policy-makers and decision-makers.

We need to understand the various challenges implied by the communication of strategic foresight products, and among them all the biases and traps that may hinder this communication, as seen in previous articles.

More prosaically, we also need to find concrete means to communicate our perfectly crafted efforts. Creating a video, assuming resources are available, may be an interesting way to do so.

We present below a fascinating example of such a video, created, true enough, thanks to the means of the U.S. Army. Our purpose is not to validate or not the methodology used, nor to approve or not the content of the scenarios themselves, but to give readers an example of what can be done to communicate scenarios.

Context of the video

The Army Futures Command was created in 2018 within the U.S. Army and its objective is to “transform the [U.S.] Army to ensure war-winning future readiness“.

As part of its mission, it explores the future operational environment. It published in the Fall of 2020, Future Operational Environment: forging the future in an uncertain world 2035-2050 (download pdf), presenting four scenarios – The New Cold War; Ascending Powers; Stable Competition; Clashing Coalitions – with the related video.

The Video – The Future Operational Environment (FOE) 2035-2050

The U.S. Army Future Command’s Future Operational Environment (FOE) 2035-2050 Video (October 2020) – shared initially on the APAN network of the Mad Scientist Laboratory.

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for international relations, national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the war in Ukraine, international order and the rise of China, the overstepping of planetary boundaries and international relations, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

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