For this strategic foresight and warning series focused on the future of Iran notably as a regional player, within the next three to five years, we shall start analysing Iran’s history and political institutions and then we shall investigate Iran’s relations with leading regional and global powers.
Category Archives: Middle-East and North Africa
The U.A.E. and the Artificial Intelligence and Sustainability Revolution
The United Arab Emirates is shifting rapidly towards the artificial intelligence revolution. This shift is expressed by numerous decisions taken by the highest U.A.E. political authorities. For example, on 16 October 2017, the Sheikh Mohamed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice-president of the U.A.E. and ruler of Dubai, appointed Omar Bin Sultan al Olama as minister …
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Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?
Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered; Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered. Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians Increased likelihood to see global perception of a …
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Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling
Impacts and Consequences If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns, Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict Facts and analysis Related Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods; Estimating Likelihoods (detailed): Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition; Narratives Sc 2.2 (2), …
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Signal: U.S. President Trump’s Statement on Jerusalem
On 6 December 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and, as a result will move its embassy there (see sources below), while also reasserting commitment to the peace process and specifying that the U.S. would support a two-state solution, if approved by both the Israelis …
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Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report
Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report. According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. …
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Signals: A Russian-backed Congress in Sochi for Future Peace in Syria?
Impacts and Consequences If Russia succeeds in gathering major actors in a congress in Sochi, which we estimate as likely (55% to 70%) Increased likelihood to see, at the end of the process, a constructive peace settling in Syria Increased likelihood to see the birth of a Federal Syria Increased likelihood to see the survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria Increased likelihood to see a serious lowering of tensions in the Middle East and even some kind of stabilisation Increased Russian influence (Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals) Facts and analysis As stated by Russian President Putin, the overarching goal is now, for Syria, “the political settlement process, …
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Signal: Russia’s Putin Hosts Syria’s Assad for Working Meeting on Future Syria at Peace
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (near future critical uncertainty)? Finding a compromise on Hezbollah and Iran presence or withdrawal from a future peaceful Syria (near future critical uncertainty) ? Are the root causes that allowed the Islamic State to rise in the region addressed (medium to longer term critical uncertainty)? ➚ ➄ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria➚ Creation of a Federal Syria➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria➘ ➃ to ➂ Middle East Tension ➚ ➃ Turkey’s perception of threat➙ Threat to Israel ➚➚ ➃ Russia influence➙ ➃ U.S. influence trial – likely leading to ➙➘ U.S. influence➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions ? Global spread “under cover” of Jihadism➚ ? Strengthening of al-Qaeda➙ ? Resilience of Islamic …
Signals: China enters the Fray in the Middle East; Israel Unprecedented Interview; Saudi Arabia…
A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability. On 16 November, three major diplomatic events centred around Saudi Arabia and Iran’s influence and involving China and Israel took place which impacted this state of play.
Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties) ➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat ➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation ➚ ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon ➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean …
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