Impacts and Consequences If Russia succeeds in gathering major actors in a congress in Sochi, which we estimate as likely (55% to 70%) Increased likelihood to see, at the end of the process, a constructive peace settling in SyriaIncreased likelihood to see the birth of a Federal SyriaIncreased likelihood to see the survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern SyriaIncreased likelihood to see a serious lowering of tensions in the Middle East and even some kind of stabilisationIncreased Russian influence (Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals) Facts and analysis As stated by Russian President Putin, the overarching goal is now, for Syria, “the political settlement process, with the finalization of …

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Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for international relations, national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the war in Ukraine, international order and the rise of China, the overstepping of planetary boundaries and international relations, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.