Scenarios are not predictions — they are structured explorations of possible futures that help organisations think, prepare, and act with foresight.
At The Red Team Analysis Society, we design strategic, evidence-based scenarios grounded in our analytical modelling of geopolitical and security dynamics.
Our goal is to help you anticipate change before it becomes a crisis.
All our scenarios and their indicators can be presented in French or English..
Contact us to discuss how our scenario expertise can strengthen your strategic planning.
Explore the full scope of our services and options
Download our Strategic Foresight & Early Warning Services Brochure
See an example: The Future of Libya Scenarios
Why Scenarios Matter
Scenarios provide a disciplined way to:
- Identify the main drivers of change and critical uncertainties.
- Explore possible futures and their implications for your strategy.
- Evaluate the probability of each possible future.
- Test the resilience of current plans and policies.
- Develop a shared strategic vision within your organisation.
They transform uncertainty into actionable insight — allowing you to prepare for what lies ahead.
Once your scenarios are defined, the next step is to monitor the real world for signs of change. Our Early Warning Design service ensures your scenarios remain operational and actionable.
Our Scenario Methodology
Our approach combines structural analysis, modelling, and expert judgment, ensuring that each scenario rests on a scientifically sound understanding of political and geopolitical dynamics.
Structural Analysis
Identification of key variables and causal relationships.
Scenario Logic Construction
Selection of pivotal and stake uncertainties (using advanced metrics) and development of consistent futures.
Narrative Design
Translation of analytical insights into clear, credible scenario stories.
Probabilisation and Steering Strategy
Our methodology allows for the probabilisation of your set of scenarios.
We identify indicators that enable scenarios to steer strategy and policy dynamically.
Strategy Assessment
Strategic options for each scenario.
Our scenarios are evidence-based, transparent, and tailored to your domain
— from global security challenges to sector-specific risks.
Applications
National Security and Defence Planning
Exploring future threat landscapes and strategic responses.
Corporate and Financial Foresight
Anticipating geopolitical, regulatory, and resource-related disruptions.
Policy Design and Strategic Innovation
Informing long-term strategies in uncertain contexts.
Deliverables
We deliver scenarios as:
- Comprehensive written reports
- Visual scenario maps
- Workshops and facilitated exercises
- Interactive digital graphs (optional)
All designed to engage your team and enhance decision-making.
Contact us to discuss how our scenario expertise can strengthen your strategic planning.
