The conflict in Libya is a full-blown war. As underlined by Jon Mitchell, in his article opening the series, “a continuing and strengthening Libyan civil war poses a significant challenge in the North African and Middle Eastern regions, and even beyond. Besides the direct domestic disaster resulting from civil war, the early involvement of five foreign regional governments (each with their own political or security stake in Libya) backing the fighting domestic actors could be a powder-keg, further destabilizing the region.” Notably, the war in Libya had – and still has? – the strong potential to play in the hand of the Islamic State (see corresponding articles).

This ongoing series, started in October 2014, thus aims at providing strategic foresight and warning analysis of the war in Libya, focusing first on the actors before to move on to scenarios.

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Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods, Jon Mitchell, 16 October 2017

Evaluating the likelihood of scenarios


The Islamic State in Libya

State of Play

Setting the stage

Featured image: Al Jazeera EnglishHigh-powered technical, 2011, [CC BY-SA 2.0 (], via Wikimedia Commons

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  1. You have a typing mistake, the articles listed in your “State of Play” section:
    War in Libya and its Futures: State of Play – Islamist & Misrata forces
    War in Libya and its Futures: State of Play – Islamist Forces (2)
    War in Libya and its Futures – Potential International Intervention in Context
    Update – War in Libya and its Futures – The Islamic State Advance and Impacts

    the year is 2014, it should be 2015

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