Most reports mention geopolitics.
Then they stop.

This scenario set answers the one question left unanswered: what could be the future geopolitical outlook for the upstream lithium supply chain to 2040? It complements — and does not duplicate — your existing market and technical analyses.

Eight possible futures.
One coherent framework.

Each scenario is defined by a distinct combination of three critical geopolitical variables, spanning the full cone of possible futures. Each illustrated by an original work by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli.

01

A Chinese-led order

Pax Sinica

Countries and companies with lithium needs now have to play by Beijing’s rules. Are you prepared to operate within its framework? Full narrative with regional case studies.

02

Might becomes right again

A Hobbesian World

Might is right. Countries and companies are faced with hard choices, caught between a rock and a hard place. How does your supply chain survive it? Full narrative with regional case studies.

03

China withdrawal

China, A New Hermit Kingdom

The global supply shifts as Beijing turns inward. Who fills the vacuum?

04

Bipolar confrontation

Cold War 3.0

A confrontational, ordered duality. Choosing sides becomes your primary strategic constraint.

05

US dominant

A New Pax Americana

The United States reasserts global leadership and shapes the critical minerals order on its own terms. What does that mean for your access to lithium?

06

Fragmented order

Real Multipolarity

Multiple competing powers, no shared rules. Aggressive and unpredictable. High operational risk. Can you operate in a world without dominant hegemony?

07

Constrained China

Be Careful What You Wish For

China is forced to champion multilateral rules — and live by them. Is your upstream lithium supply chain compliant?

08

UN 3.0

UN 3.0

A renewed cooperative international framework. The most optimistic — but is it a realistic foundation for your CAPEX?

Scenarios Pax Sinica and A Hobbesian World are presented in full narrative detail. The other scenarios are in structured narrative form. All eight have deep strategic implications for governments and companies.

Rigorous by design.
Traceable at every step.

The scenario set was built from a causal knowledge graph of the global critical minerals competition, then specified for lithium — yielding a model of 383 nodes and 1,528 edges. Structural analysis (Godet, revisited) was used, enhanced with network centrality measures to identify, objectively, the variables that most drive systemic change.

The three critical variables structuring the eight scenarios – and the two variables key for each country – were selected through this model — not through intuition or editorial convention. Each variable has two extreme states, yielding eight scenario combinations that span the cone of possible futures.

What you receive.

• Ch. 1
  Actionable scenarios and their characteristics

  What scenarios are, why narratives matter, why depicting the cone of possibility is essential for strategic planning.
• Ch. 2
  The logic of the lithium scenario set

  How the causal knowledge graph was built, the three systemic critical variables – and the next two key variables for each country, the structural logic behind the eight-scenario set.
• Ch. 3
  The eight scenarios

  Pax Sinica and A Hobbesian World in full narrative detail with regional focuses. Six additional scenarios in structured form.
• Ccl.
  Wild cards, indicators, and strategic guidance

  Five wild card events. Concrete guidance for governments and companies. Probability assessment and indicators available on request.
• App.
  Appendices

  IEA scenarios (reference framework) · Bibliography and sources — 16 pages of peer-reviewed, primary, institutional, company-related and specialised references.

69 pages + appendices. Delivered as a high-resolution PDF.

Who needs this report.

Authority on the subject.

Order the report.

Custom engagements available: country sub-scenarios, company-specific stress-tests, workshop facilitation, probability monitoring over time.
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