(Art direction and design;
illustration created with
AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)
We are pleased to share Dr Hélène Lavoix’s latest contribution to Atout Risk Manager (Issue 50, Autumn 2026), the official quarterly journal of AMRAE (Association pour le Management des Risques et des Assurances de l’Entreprise).
For this landmark 50th edition, the editorial board chose to step back from traditional day-to-day risk management to confront the reality of an increasingly chaotic and volatile corporate environment – shaped by geopolitical fractures, systemic climate risks, and technological disruptions. To address this complexity, the journal gathered 30 “Grands Témoins” from diverse horizons (including economists, climate scientists, experts on strategic foresight, geopolitics, supply chain and actuarial science, and corporate leaders in various sectors). They examined how organizations can navigate global uncertainty and maintain a capacity for decisive strategic action when traditional approaches and tools break down.
In her interview (pp. 24-25), structured under the theme “Thinking of risks as a system and not as a list,” Dr Lavoix addresses the necessity of moving away from static, annual risk matrices. She explains how the structural analysis methodology of strategic foresight and early warning maps the multiple real-world causal enchainments, allowing organisations to develop scenarios and actionable warnings to serve decision-making and action. Furthermore, she delineates why human cognition remains the essential vehicle to decipher systemic interactions, highlighting the fundamental boundaries of current artificial intelligence and Large Language Models (LLMs) when processing unprecedented strategic surprises or weak signals.
From Insight to Action
Read more about our approach to constructing causal models and to scenario-building in our Methodology Section, or explore our Custom-Designed and Online Training Section to strengthen your organisation’s strategic foresight and early warning capabilities, and thus its resilience.
Read on the AMRAE website (in French): Numéro Anniversaire – Atout Risk Manager N°50 – Automne 2026
