Sense-Making for Geopolitics and the Future: Strategic Foresight and Early Warning, Risk Management
As you understood, our concerns, research and publications are located at the intersection of geopolitics and international security on the one hand, anticipation of the future and uncertainty on the other. Furthermore we aim at being practical, i.e. create actionable strategic foresight and early warning.
To try to make it easier for you to meet your objectives in a complex environment, we offer here an introduction and then two orientations to navigate the website.
Introduction
As an introduction, we suggest three of our publications:
We briefly present the field, its evolution and some of the challenges faced in the need for strategic foresight and early warning. This article also lays the foundation for our philosophy.
Because we realised over the years and with experience that our field is sometime poorly understood, we tried to find ways to make it easier to understand. We thus offer you a concise FAQ on the topic.
You can also watch our video on “What is political risk” that will bring light to what we do compared with a general approach to “political risk”.
Two options
You can read articles from each section, of course!
Practice and Learn Methodology and Tools
If you are interested in learning more about how to do strategic foresight and early warning then you can read our articles from our section on methodology.
Dive in Geopolitical Issues and Stakes
If you are rather interested in geopolitics and international security, in understanding the most pressing issues and what lies ahead, then head to our section focused on geopolitical issues and stakes.
There, you will find all our articles, publications and research grouped by main themes and issues. You will find in-depth analyses, different perceptions on various topics. We also tell you what we currently focus upon, what is on our watch. We deliver warnings, etc.
Join the Red Team Analysis Society to back impartial and thorough analysis.
Our latest articles
- Fifth Year of Advanced Training in Early Warning Systems & Indicators – ESFSI of Tunisia
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) At the end of October 2024, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia organised the first session of its fifth intensive training on early warning systems & indicators. This session ran concurrently with a crisis management module, highlighting the interconnected nature of … - Towards a U.S. Nuclear Renaissance?
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 30 September 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published the latest edition of the Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear. Its aim is to contribute to accelerate advanced nuclear reactors’ commercial deployment in support of U.S. objectives in terms of nuclear energy, necessary notably to achieve its … - AI at War (3) – Hyperwar in the Middle east
(Image: UK MOD, OGL v1.0OGL v1.0, via Wikimedia Commons ) AI is everywhere in the current Middle East wars. In the Gaza war, triggered by the monstruous massacre inflicted by the Hamas militia on 7 October 2023, the Israel military is using machine learning in order to produce targets in Gaza ( “Octobre 7: How …Continue reading “AI at War (3) – Hyperwar in the Middle east”
- AI at War (2) – Preparing for the US-China War?
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Darkening clouds (of drones) On 28 August 2023, on the Island of Guam, Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Secretary of Defense, gave a speech at a military and media crowd about the need for the U.S. to mass produce drones in order to outsize the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (Deputy Secretary …Continue reading “AI at War (2) – Preparing for the US-China War?”
- Niger: a New Severe Threat for the Future of France’s Nuclear Energy?
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Article updated to include October 2024 and early November 2024 events. On 19 June 2024, Niger has revoked French nuclear state company Orano’s mining permit for the Imouraren mine. This means that Orano – and thus France – loses 47% of its uranium reserves, when an era of renewal …Continue reading “Niger: a New Severe Threat for the Future of France’s Nuclear Energy?”
- Revisiting Uranium Supply Security (1)
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) In December 2023, twenty two governments and the nuclear industry decided to treble nuclear energy by 2050. If we are to meet this objective, then the corresponding uranium supply must be adequate. Globally, there is enough uranium to see the aims met (see Uranium and the Renewal of Nuclear … - The Future of Uranium Demand – China’s Surge
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The world is poised to make the effort to treble its nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Even though uranium reserves are meant to be abundant and widespread worldwide, the necessity of producing uranium from mines, with long timelines from exploration to extraction and milling, added to the fate of …Continue reading “The Future of Uranium Demand – China’s Surge”
- Uranium and the Renewal of Nuclear Energy
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) A new era starts for nuclear energy. The December 2023 “Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy by 2050”, signed by 22 states, officially cemented the beginning of the renewal of nuclear energy (see Helene Lavoix, “The Return of Nuclear Energy“, The Red Team Analysis Society, 26 March 2024). Then, on …Continue reading “Uranium and the Renewal of Nuclear Energy”
- AI at War (1) – Ukraine
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Combat robots, AI targeted air strikes, new generation cyber and information warfare, AI generated deep-fakes, unmanned air and sea military vehicles, and smart artillery are being currently massively projected on the theatres of operations of Ukraine, Gaza and the Red Sea. As it happens, those new weapons systems are different iterations …
