The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No105, 20 June 2013

What could a cat standing for elections in Mexico, clearly a prank, have to do with international relations, politics and national security? Why choose it as feature when so many other possible signals could have been highlighted such as new high tech capabilities and weapons, the evolution of the war in Syria and its impact in Lebanon, the region and global international politics, the new cyber-hotline between the U.S. and Russia, moves in Central Asia and the Caucasus or the never-ending questions on the crisis and Europe, without forgetting, of course the dramatic  issue of climate change and its always nearer impact? The answer is in the symbolism, as underlined in The Guardian article: this cat is about political disenchantment, which goes hand in hand with loss of legitimacy, not only of a specific government, regime, or state, but of a whole system. It is a powerful symbol for the protests that flare in one country after another, now in Brazil after Turkey, then recede, then start again, in the same country or elsewhere. It is a sign that we are facing globally very deep changes – progressively revealed through all the other signals – and that societies are aware of those challenges and not quite satisfied with the way they are handled, or can be handled by the current system. It most probably indicates, in our disorganized collective efforts to face those challenges, more changes and more crises to come, until we find satisfying answers.

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political risk, national security, intelligence, horizon scanning, war

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.

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