(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)

At the end of October 2024, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia organised the first session of its fifth intensive training on early warning systems & indicators.

This session ran concurrently with a crisis management module, highlighting the interconnected nature of the two disciplines. First, if a warning system fails, a crisis ensues, requiring immediate crisis management decisions and actions. The job of the early warning module is thus to train senior officers to have to use as rarely as possible what is taught in the crisis management module, yet to be ready to do so. Second, as a crisis is managed through decisions and measures, it is crucial to anticipate potential future threats or hazards that may emerge as a consequence of the very management of the crisis. This includes grappling with the intricate domain of unintended consequences. Therefore, comprehending the concept and fundamentals of warning and effectively integrating warning systems and analyses into the crisis management process is essential.

For the October and November session of the training in early warning and indicators, Dr Hélène Lavoix trained senior officers in an intensive 35-hour programme focusing on fundamentals, processes, analysis and practice on issues of interest.

As always the many in-depth and extremely interesting discussions with the trainees and the executive management of the ESFSI, to say nothing of their amazing hospitality, transformed this week in a high level, high quality workshop.

The activity is supported by the European programme “CT-JUST” via Expertise France: “This multilateral and trans-regional programme aims to support regional stability by strengthening cross-border cooperation and the criminal justice system in the fight against terrorism and organised crime.” (News, “The EU-Just-CT project starts its activities in Morocco”, EU Neighbours South, June 2024).

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.

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