We live today in a highly volatile world. Uncertainties for tomorrow abound. The world we knew is already gone. Yet, the future emerges both quickly and slowly. Changes appear to be very rapid, yet sometimes they surprise us with a pace that is not so fast.
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The world is the theatre of heightening tensions. Threats abound. Insecurity spreads. War has come back. The impacts of human activity on the planet and beyond create immense challenges and completely novel geopolitical stakes.
How can we make sense of this changing world that could also become inhospitable? How can we take good decisions for the future? How can we anticipate, repair, adapt?
Our philosophy is to help you meet the need for strategic foresight and early warning in a world of complex uncertainties.
Our Expertise
An understanding of geopolitics grounded in knowledge and experience, spearheaded by PhDs
A strong methodology developed by scientists and adapted to complex issues
Imagination, system-thinking and thinking out of the box
Think-Tank and Publications
More than a website, a path to handle geopolitics and uncertainty
To understand this changing world and foresee what could happen, we have a twin approach. We mix methodology as well as research and analysis on real world issues with geopolitical and international security stakes.
We publish these articles here on the website to help you discover strategic foresight, early warning besides geopolitical issues and their stakes.
If you are new to geopolitics and strategic foresight and warning, the video we created as a trailer for our training will give you some first introductory insight.
Our latest articles
- The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 1st December 2022
(The photo was taken by Stefan Seip, one of the ESO Photo Ambassadors This is the 1st December 2022 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan. The signals of this weekly are neither edited …Continue reading “The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 1st December 2022”
- Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat
Starting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …Continue reading “Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat”
- An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6)
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) From 1 September to 16 September 22, Vladimir Putin, President of the Federation of Russia, presided the Russian military exercises Vostok 2022. Besides the Russian military, the exercise gathered troops from 14 countries, including India and China (Arang Shidore, “Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated”, Responsible Statecraft, …Continue reading “An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6)”
- An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, …Continue reading “An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia”
- War in Ukraine in the Warming Arctic – Anthropocene Wars (5)
The war in Ukraine is morphing from a war between Russia and Ukraine into a war that involves NATO members supporting the war effort in Ukraine (Darlene Superville and Zeke Miller, “US Boosting Military Presence in Europe amid Russia Threat”, APNews, 29 June 2022). This situation generates strategic tensions between NATO and Russia that spill …Continue reading “War in Ukraine in the Warming Arctic – Anthropocene Wars (5)”
- The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the other. This confrontation takes place at different levels and through all forms and dimensions of power. The escalation towards war is at work. War is not inevitable, it is however …Continue reading “The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension”
- The American National Interest
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Do the United States still consider France to be their ally? We have to ponder this question because of the submarine contract signed between France and Australia, and broken in September 2021, to the benefit of the U.S.. If a country takes 35 billion euros from you, possibly revalued to 55 … - Food Security: China-Russia and Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (4)
The War in Ukraine and the Great Amplification Since the start of the Russian offensive on 24 February 2022, the raging war has triggered an amplification of the tension on global food and energy prices. The price trends for oil, gas, coal and agricultural products were already on the rise because of the Western “post” …Continue reading “Food Security: China-Russia and Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (4)”
- Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli on a photo by Francesco Ungaro) The war(*) in Ukraine is hastening changes in international politics in many different ways. The possibility to see the conflict morphing into World War III acts as a convincing spur for continuing efforts at understanding and adapting. Concerned and informed actors are thus trying to …Continue reading “Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine”
Some customers and references
We strive to build a relationship of trust with every client. We do not publicize our work for our clients. We do not mention the name of our private and public clients when the work is confidential.
Here are some of customers and references we can mention:
EESTI MALU INSTITUUT ･ ALTERRE BOURGOGNE-FRANCHE-COMTE ･ ESFSI ･ CIVIPOL ･ EUROPEAN COMMISSION (PROGRAMS COUNTER-TERRORISM AND PREVENTION OF RADICALISATION) ･ AXA ･ RESOCLUB ･ PJ – SCRC – ONSTS ･ BPI FRANCE ･ NATO INNOVATION CENTER ･ OECD – SWISS CHANCELLERY ･ ARF ･ EEAS ･ TUIC ･ EUROPEAN COMMISSION – LEAGUE OF ARAB STATE LIAISON OFFICE (EC-LASLO) ･ LIFE DEFENSE NATURE ･ SCPO-PSIA ･ ANSSI ･ WEF ･ NORDIS ･ GCSP ･ AXA FUND FOR RESEARCH AND IFRI ･ LUTHER COLLEGE ･