We live today in a highly volatile world. Uncertainties for tomorrow abound. The world we knew is already gone. Yet, the future emerges both quickly and slowly. Changes appear to be very rapid, yet sometimes they surprise us with a pace that is not so fast.
Latest Products
The world is the theatre of heightening tensions. Threats abound. Insecurity spreads. War has come back. The impacts of human activity on the planet and beyond create immense challenges and completely novel geopolitical stakes.
How can we make sense of this changing world that could also become inhospitable? How can we take good decisions for the future? How can we anticipate, repair, adapt?
Our philosophy is to help you meet the need for strategic foresight and early warning in a world of complex uncertainties.
Our Expertise
An understanding of geopolitics grounded in knowledge and experience, spearheaded by PhDs
A strong methodology developed by scientists and adapted to complex issues
Imagination, system-thinking and thinking out of the box
Think-Tank and Publications
More than a website, a path to handle geopolitics and uncertainty
To understand this changing world and foresee what could happen, we have a twin approach. We mix methodology as well as research and analysis on real world issues with geopolitical and international security stakes.
We publish these articles here on the website to help you discover strategic foresight, early warning besides geopolitical issues and their stakes.
If you are new to geopolitics and strategic foresight and warning, the video we created as a trailer for our training will give you some first introductory insight.
Our latest articles
- The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the other. This confrontation takes place at different levels and through all forms and dimensions of power. The escalation towards war is at work. War is not inevitable, it is however …Continue reading “The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension”
- The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 30 June 2022
This is the 30 June 2022 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan. Editorial: Such a perfect escalation towards World War 3! - The American National Interest
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Do the United States still consider France to be their ally? We have to ponder this question because of the submarine contract signed between France and Australia, and broken in September 2021, to the benefit of the U.S.. If a country takes 35 billion euros from you, possibly revalued to 55 … - Food Security: China-Russia and Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (4)
The War in Ukraine and the Great Amplification Since the start of the Russian offensive on 24 February 2022, the raging war has triggered an amplification of the tension on global food and energy prices. The price trends for oil, gas, coal and agricultural products were already on the rise because of the Western “post” …Continue reading “Food Security: China-Russia and Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (4)”
- Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli on a photo by Francesco Ungaro) The war(*) in Ukraine is hastening changes in international politics in many different ways. The possibility to see the conflict morphing into World War III acts as a convincing spur for continuing efforts at understanding and adapting. Concerned and informed actors are thus trying to …Continue reading “Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine”
- War in Ukraine, Megadrought and the Coming Global Food Crisis – Anthropocene Wars (3)
The War in Ukraine as a Perfect Storm The war in Ukraine triggers a global whirlwind involving energy and food crisis. The latter is quite singular, because it combines the consequences of the war on the global agricultural system with massive extreme weather events, such as the U.S. midwestern megadrought. War as global disruption Indeed, … - Advanced Training in Early Warning Systems & Indicators – ESFSI in Tunisia
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) At the end of March 2022, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia organised its fourth intensive training on early warning systems & indicators. It is part of its programme on the “management of social conflict.” This time, we set up with the management …Continue reading “Advanced Training in Early Warning Systems & Indicators – ESFSI in Tunisia”
- Nuclear Battlefields in Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (2)
A nuclear theatre of operations (Art Direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: Recognize Productions via Pexels). On 24 February 2022, at the very start of Russian offensive against Ukraine, after a two days battle, the Russian forces took over the Chernobyl power plant, where the historic nuclear accident occurred in 1986 (Mary Kekatos, “Seizure of Chernobyl plant …Continue reading “Nuclear Battlefields in Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (2)”
- The East Seas Security Sigils
The East Seas Security Sigils is an unedited daily scan. It focuses on security in the East Seas. It has run since May 2012. Access it below. Come back everyday for an updated scan, with new signals. A brief presentation The East Seas Security Sigils aims to allow monitoring easily with open source what is happening …
Some customers and references
We strive to build a relationship of trust with every client. We do not publicize our work for our clients. We do not mention the name of our private and public clients when the work is confidential.
Here are some of customers and references we can mention:
EESTI MALU INSTITUUT ･ ALTERRE BOURGOGNE-FRANCHE-COMTE ･ ESFSI ･ CIVIPOL ･ EUROPEAN COMMISSION (PROGRAMS COUNTER-TERRORISM AND PREVENTION OF RADICALISATION) ･ AXA ･ RESOCLUB ･ PJ – SCRC – ONSTS ･ BPI FRANCE ･ NATO INNOVATION CENTER ･ OECD – SWISS CHANCELLERY ･ ARF ･ EEAS ･ TUIC ･ EUROPEAN COMMISSION – LEAGUE OF ARAB STATE LIAISON OFFICE (EC-LASLO) ･ LIFE DEFENSE NATURE ･ SCPO-PSIA ･ ANSSI ･ WEF ･ NORDIS ･ GCSP ･ AXA FUND FOR RESEARCH AND IFRI ･ LUTHER COLLEGE ･