Learn to build and develop scenarios for political and geopolitical risk, global uncertainties and international security.
Step by step, you will learn to build a complete set of scenarios, with narratives and dedicated indicators. You will also learn to find out the probability of each scenario.
As a result, your scenarios will truly be fully actionable, while you will be able to use them for warning.
Throughout this course, you will find answers notably to the following questions:
- What are scenarios and how do we build them?
- What is the use of scenarios?
- How can we synthesise the factors or variables identified as crucial for our issue or risk?
- What are narratives and why do we use them?
- What is a scenario-tree?
- What are indicators? How to select them?
- Do we need probabilities? How do we estimate probability for scenarios?
The page to enroll can be found here.
For trainees with instalments, if you want to know when you will be able to access a unit, click on the unit itself or find a timetable in My account >> Memberships >> Then choose your course and click either on the name of the course or on “View”
Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France).
An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia.
She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics.
Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.
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