Learn to build and develop scenarios for political and geopolitical risk, global uncertainties and international security.

Step by step, you will learn to build a complete set of scenarios, with narratives and dedicated indicators. You will also learn to find out the probability of each scenario.

As a result, your scenarios will truly be fully actionable, while you will be able to use them for warning.

Throughout this course, you will find answers notably to the following questions:

  • What are scenarios and how do we build them?
  • What is the use of scenarios?
  • How can we synthesise the factors or variables identified as crucial for our issue or risk?
  • What are narratives and why do we use them?
  • What is a scenario-tree?
  • What are indicators? How to select them?
  • Do we need probabilities? How do we estimate probability for scenarios?

The page to enroll can be found here.


For trainees with instalments, if you want to know when you will be able to access a unit, click on the unit itself or find a timetable in My account >> Memberships >> Then choose your course and click either on the name of the course or on “View”

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the rise of China, the COVID-19 Pandemic, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

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