Investment
€ 2.500
excl. VAT — applied at checkout
according to status & location (€ 3.000 incl. VAT)
Includes 6 months online access, course materials, and one live one-to-one hour with Dr Lavoix.
Also included: certificate of completion · access to premium articles (course readings & Methodology section) · 10% off Course 1 – Anticipate the Future: Build Your Strategic Model for Geopolitical Risk and Crisis · 10% off Platinum Membership.
Group enrolment? Contact us for team pricing.
Online Course · Scenario Building
Anticipate the Future:
Build Your Scenarios
for Geopolitical Risk and Crisis
A rigorous, step-by-step course in strategic foresight and early warning — from a strategic model to a full set of actionable scenarios for political and geopolitical issues.
In today’s rapidly changing and uncertain environment, being able to steer a course of action with foreknowledge is critical.
With this course you will learn to build top-of-the-range actionable scenarios — the tool you need to design and implement strategies and policies that remain strong across possible futures, considering international tensions, war, pandemics, climate change, energy and resource security, supply disruption, new technologies, and financial instability.
“I found the course designed by Dr Helene on geopolitical risk and crisis anticipation extremely interesting and engaging. The course enhanced my planning skills both at the macro and the micro level. […] I highly recommend this course to anybody involved in advanced planning or policy-making.” I. Roy Chowdhury, Chief Officer, Sales & Distribution, Entrepreneur’s Investment Office, Dubai.
On this page
Overview & Benefits For Whom Programme Content Testimonial FAQDocumentation
Course Brochure (PDF)See the Bundle →
Why this course matters now
Why Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis
Is Not Automatable — And Why That Matters
This course is designed around methodology and deep causal understanding — not shortcuts. Current AI tools can help you draft ideas, out of others’ work, or format a document, but they can neither understand causality nor decide, in your place, which futures are genuinely possible, coherent, and useful for your organisation, at the right level of precision. That discernment only comes from building and then using a scenario-tree developed according to a correct methodology.
Scenario sets generated automatically tend to be generic and disconnected from the specific causal and structural dynamics of your issue. Worse, they can create a false sense of security — a set of futures that feels comprehensive but misses the branch that actually matters.
Rigorous scenario-building — rooted in a validated structural model, tested assumptions, and explicit indicators — has been part of the RTAS methodology for almost twenty years. That is why this course focuses on equipping you to think in scenarios — not to outsource the thinking to a tool that is not built for that purpose.
The course keeps pace with the tools of the field, while keeping the human fundamental capabilities in reasoning and in imagination disciplined by method — at its centre.
The course in a few words
From Model to Scenarios:
A Step-by-Step Course in Strategic Foresight and Early Warning
The Course — Scenario-Building — will guide you in learning, progressively, to develop a strong and valid set of scenarios, presented as an easy-to-use tree for issues of concern. In turn, this scenario-tree will allow you to design successful and resilient strategies and policies.
Scenario-building, also known as scenario analysis in risk management, is a key methodology to anticipate the future and prepare adequate answers. It is particularly useful for complex, volatile and rapidly changing circumstances. It can and should be used to plan ahead for issues such as international tensions, war, climate change and environmental upheavals, energy, water and resource security, supply chain disruption, new tech emergence, financial meltdown, etc.
With this course, you will practically learn to develop, step by step, your scenarios. If you have already built scenarios, this course will help you checking your methodology, improving your scenarios and validating the building process. You will also see how to communicate scenarios to decision-makers.
Including many practical examples and exercises from the real world, the course is designed and taught specifically for general managers of small and medium-sized companies, senior managers and officers, and analysts, who need to understand a fast-moving international context and take related decisions.
With the new skills and understanding you will have mastered, you will be able to create scenarios for decision-makers, improve existing products grounded in scenario-planning, and use these tools and capabilities to design and facilitate workshops.
Media Presentation
Course Overview Video
What you will gain
Key Benefits
- Understand the role of scenarios for strategic foresight, risk management, and, more broadly, anticipation.
- Learn the major methods used to build scenarios.
- Learn how to select key variablesto underpin your scenarios, with a strong, traceable methodology.
- Use free software tools — including elements of social network analysis — to select your variables.
- Learn to structure your set of scenarios and build a full scenario-tree.
- Master the development of each branch of your scenarios with rigour and imagination.
- Learn to add indicators to each scenario, and estimate the probability of each scenario in your set.
- Learn about black swans and wild cards, and how to account for them.
- Learn how to finalise your scenarios for communication to decision-makers.
- Improve or create products, documents and outcomes for decision-makers grounded in scenario-planning, and design workshops using the tools mastered in this course.
“I found the course designed by Dr Helene on geopolitical risk and crisis anticipation extremely interesting and engaging. The course enhanced my planning skills both at the macro as well as the micro level. […] I highly recommend this course to anybody who is interested or involved in doing advanced planning or policy making exercises.”
I. Roy Chowdhury, Chief Officer, Sales & Distribution, Entrepreneur’s Investment Office, Dubai.
“It provides insights for academics, decision-makers and practitioners on how to model and evaluate different anticipated scenarios. […] The strength of the course is the high applicability of its content to various contexts, which gives students the ability to match the skills acquired with their professional background.”
Dr Linda Schlegel, Research Fellow, Modus – Zentrum für angewandte Deradikalisierungsforschung gGmbH & PRIF Peace Research Institute FrankfurtWho is this course for?
Participant Profile
This course is particularly suited to professionals who need to anticipate complex, fast-moving geopolitical and global issues — and who must translate that anticipation into resilient strategy.
General Managers
of small and medium-sized companies navigating geopolitical disruption
Senior Leaders
in public sector and third sector organisations facing disruptive geopolitical change
Analysts
from diplomacy, defence, the military, and the private sector, handling threats from war, drug trafficking and terrorism to climate change, energy security and supply chain disruption
Students
interested in geopolitics, international security, and the future — at postgraduate level
Lewis Chess pieces — British Museum — photos by Paul Hudson, CC BY 2.0
Standards and credentials
Teaching and Training Quality
This course benefits from the online learning environment while remaining grounded in classical high-level academic teaching credentials, executive training experience, and deep practical expertise in international relations and geopolitical analysis.
Course designer and trainer
Dr Hélène Lavoix holds a PhD in International Politics (SOAS, University of London), a MSc in International Politics of Asia (Distinction, SOAS), and a Master in Finance (ISC Paris — Valedictorian). She has specialised in strategic foresight and early warning for close to 20 years and is an experienced trainer and lecturer across international institutions.
The course is entirely created by Dr Lavoix from her own knowledge and experience. It includes one hour one-to-one live with Dr Lavoix, included in the course enrolment.
Grounded in research and practice
The programme is grounded in scientific and academic knowledge as well as practical experience of international relations, political and geopolitical analysis, and strategic foresight and early warning.
Course content and software tutorials (yEd Graph and Gephi) are reviewed and kept current as the tools and methodology evolve. Current enrolments access the most recent version.
What you will study
Programme Content — The Course Syllabus
The course runs across 17 units in 5 modules, planned for completion over 14 weeks. It includes video lectures, exercises, examples from the real geopolitical world, quizzes, readings, and hands-on software tutorials.
Module 1 · Introduction
Building Scenarios
This module briefly recalls the overall methodology, locating scenario-building within it. It introduces the main aims of scenario-building, what scenarios are, and the fundamentals of the process.
Module 2 · tutorials
Software for Analysis and Scenarios
Introduction to two free, open-source tools used throughout the course — yEd Graph and Gephi — with step-by-step tutorials. Alumni of Course 1 can use these as a refresher.
Module 3 · 6 units
Selecting Variables for Scenarios
Learn to select key variables for your issue, using a revisited influence analysis including centrality measures. A Gephi tutorial helps you with this task you will practice with related exercises and testing. Finally, the module focuses on preparing selected variables for the next stage.
Module 4 · 3 units
Building a Set of Scenarios
This module deepens scenario fundamentals and the principles that define whether scenarios are valid, then guides you in the scenario building process. Use the selected variables to build- the structure of your scenario-tree and then develop each branch, with narratives.
Module 5 · Final module
Making Your Scenarios Actionable
Learn to attribute indicators to each scenario and to estimate the likelihood of each of your scenario. Discover black swans and wild-card scenarios, and learn how to finalise your scenarios for communication to decision-makers.
What participants say
Testimonials
“I found the course designed by Dr Helene on geopolitical risk and crisis anticipation extremely interesting and engaging. The course enhanced my planning skills both at the macro as well as the micro level. The course was very well paced and content appropriate. The simulation exercises added a lot of clarity to the underlying theory. I highly recommend this course to anybody who is interested or involved in doing advanced planning or policy making exercises. Dr Helene has been very helpful throughout the course, and thanks to her such a critical course is being offered so effortlessly through her online module.”
Indranil Roy Chowdhury, Chief Officer, Sales & Distribution, Entrepreneur’s Investment Office, Dubai““It provides insights for academics, decision-makers and practitioners on how to model and evaluate different anticipated scenarios. Students are guided through both theoretical underpinnings of crisis anticipation, including psychological mechanisms that could prevent accurate anticipations, as well as practical applications and help in modelling their own case studies. The strength of the course is the high applicability of its content to various contexts, which gives students the ability to match the skills acquired through the course with their professional background.”
Dr Linda Schlegel, Research Fellow, Modus – Zentrum für angewandte Deradikalisierungsforschung gGmbH & PRIF Peace Research Institute FrankfurtPractical information
Learning Experience and FAQ
Learning Experience
How much time should I plan each week?
Plan approximately 7 to 8 hours per week, plus a couple of additional hours as you apply what you have learned to your own issue of concern. Expect roughly 1 hour of video lectures, 1–2 hours of exercises and quizzes, 3–4 hours of reading, and 2–3 hours applying the learning to your project.
What is the weekly learning pace?
The course comprises 17 units across 5 modules, planned for 14 weeks (software tutorials and practice are combined). The programme is designed with sufficient flexibility for you to study at your own pace within each week.
Can I work ahead of the planned schedule?
You can study ahead, but this should not come at the expense of reading and practice. The methodology requires genuine assimilation — moving too fast without applying what you have learned reduces the value of the course significantly.
Do I need to be online at specific times?
The programme is fully asynchronous — video lectures, tests, exercises — so you can study at any time. The one exception is the included one-to-one live hour with Dr Lavoix, which is arranged by email at a time convenient for both of you. We recommend taking this hour towards the end of your training, when you are best placed to ask questions.
Can I access the content after the 14 weeks?
Yes — you have access to all online resources for up to 6 months from the start date. You can return to any unit as many times as you need throughout that period.
When and how do I book my one-to-one hour with Dr Lavoix?
Simply send us an email once you approximately know when you would like this hour to take place. We will arrange a time convenient for both you and Dr Lavoix. Please plan at least two weeks in advance.
Requirements and Certification
What do I need to do to complete the course?
To successfully complete the online programme and earn certification you must:
- Complete all in-platform learning activities
- Earn a minimum of 50% on all tests
If you have also taken the tutoring programme and submitted a project, you additionally need a minimum grade of 60% on the project.
What do I receive upon completion?
Participants who meet the requirements receive an official Certificate of Completion from the Red Team Analysis Society, which can also be showcased on LinkedIn. If you have completed the tutoring programme with a satisfactory project grade, your final project grade will be noted in a reference letter from your trainer.
Technical Questions
What equipment do I need?
The course runs on desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones. It requires an Internet connection — offline access is not supported, though some content such as slides and exercises can be downloaded. Supported browsers: Chrome 31+, Safari 7+, Firefox 26+.
How do I access the course once enrolled?
After enrolment, your course, progress, and all units are accessible from My Account → Courses and from My Online Courses in the navigation menu.
Bundle and Groups
What is the relationship between Course 1 and Course 2?
This course (Scenario-Building) is the second of a two-course programme on strategic foresight and warning. Course 1 focuses on process and analytical modelling, and is designed to be taken first. The model you build in Course 1 becomes the foundation for the scenarios you develop here.
Is there an advantage to taking both courses together?
Yes. The bundle (Course 1 + Course 2) is available at € 3.750 excl. VAT — a saving of 25% versus the two courses purchased separately. You also benefit from extended access: one year instead of the six months for each individual course.
Can I register a group?
Yes — contact us for group pricing. We encourage group participation, as interaction between participants fosters learning. For organisations wishing to combine enrolment with live tutoring, note that for reasons of confidentiality we do not mix participants from different organisations in the same tutoring group.
Is live tutoring available in addition to the course?
Yes. In addition to the included one-to-one hour, you can add further live tutoring sessions or a full executive tutoring programme. See the Live Tutoring for Online Courses and Executive Tutoring & Advisory pages for details and pricing.
Register for Course 2 — Scenario Building
€ 2.500
excl. VAT — VAT applied at checkout according to status and location (€ 3.000 incl. VAT)
Questions? Contact us — or download the Training Portfolio (PDF).
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