One of the most important signals of the week was not only, unsurprisingly, the last episode in the never-ending politician American infighting over the debt ceiling, but also, the perceptible fatigue across a wide range of world actors, who were being taken hostage by representatives they had not elected over issues that did not concern them. Even Americans despised the bickering and its huge impact borne by others, if polls and surveys are to be believed. One of the major impact we may envision is that we may well be leaving the dollar dominated world we have known. The cost for the U.S. will be very high on all fronts. That will also mean major changes for the world, including in terms of instability, which may not be good news considering all other elements (from a changing energy security map to turmoil in the Middle East without forgetting new armament and technological changes), also feeding into a generalizing uncertainty. This episode and its global impact could also indicate that we have now, beyond doubt, entered a period of evolution and transition, where complexity is a reality (see for example how piracy may impact climate change research) and feedbacks are very strong and escalating, and will remain so until we – the actors – find how to stabilize our world system.
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Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France).
An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia.
She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics.
Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.
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