The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No125, 7 November 2013

The Million Mask March organized by Anonymous on 5 November as a day of global protest received little attention in the media and mobilized, according to photos, less than what could be seen previously with Occupy. However, it can nevertheless be taken as an indication of a generalized discontent, even if it is neither mobilized nor really fully expressed, as well as a weak signal of a rising crisis of legitimacy. People are not immune to the wavering and doubts displayed by their governments and administrations. If legitimacy were starting to be seriously questioned, then those governments could discover that policies would become very difficult to implement indeed, which may be critically lethal considering the impact, present and future, of environmental changes. It is no less dangerous when being faced with countries that do not have to deal with similar problems, that are not beset with public deficit and austerity and that know how to dare taking strategic advantage of changes, while making sure it is known and publicized. Worse still, in turn, unfavorable international exchanges  – more bluntly, signals indicating a weak or potentially weaker influence – also further impact negatively domestic legitimacy. Could it be that we are still living in the midst of a crisis, actually a very deep one?

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The Red Team Analysis  Society, Startegic Warning, anticipatory intelligence, horizon scanning, weak signal

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.

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