The question of a U.S. decline is increasingly on the agenda as signals seem to pile up to indicate a relative loss of power status. The last instance of such dynamics at play is the 4 to 8 October 2017 state visit to Russia of King Salman Saudi Arabia King Salman, a long-standing close ally of the U.S. since 1945. The  return of the King was stressed by Saudi ArabNews as “a four-day historic state visit to Russia, which had seen Saudi-Russian ties reaching new heights”. This visit appears thus to herald the start of a new period, where a U.S. decline could be a reality.

We examine this very loss of American power through a series of three articles, which look at three dimensions of U.S. decline as perceived – publicly – by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), part of the U.S. Office of The Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Previously, we sought to understand what the NIC means exactly by a U.S. decline and its onset. Here, in this article, we shall focus on the sources of American decline and power, as identified by the NIC, which will also give us indicators to monitor the decline. Finally, in the third article we shall point out the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and address the inability of the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower.


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Full article 2110 words – approx. 5 pages


Featured image by Bruce Emmerling, Public Domain, Pixabay


Detailed bibliography

America’s civil engineers, “Infrastructure Report Card“, 2017.

National Intelligence Council, Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress (GT)Office of the Director of National Intelligence, (for the public version, January 2017).

The Red (Team) Analysis Society, “The Shale Oil and Gas Security Sigils“, Daily Scan.

Valantin, Jean-Michel, “Climate Change: the Long Planetary Bombing“, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, 18 Sept 2017.

Waltz, Kenneth, Theory of International Politics, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

Read a summary of Waltz’s theory in the Korab-Karpowicz, W. Julian, “Political Realism in International Relations“, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2017 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.).

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.

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