This is the 10 February 2022 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan. Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or …
Continue reading “The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 10 February 2022”
The Red (Team) Analysis Society was featured in a very interesting article, “A New Era without Certainties” (Uma nova era sem certezas), by Portuguese author and journalist Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues, published in the December 2017 edition of the business and economy magazine Exame (group Expresso). Among other references, a detailed interview of Dr Helene Lavoix, RTAS Director, …
This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding …
Continue reading “The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea”
The question of a U.S. decline is increasingly on the agenda as signals seem to pile up to indicate a relative loss of power status. The last instance of such dynamics at play is the 4 to 8 October 2017 state visit to Russia of King Salman Saudi Arabia King Salman, a long-standing close ally of …
The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). However, each …
Continue reading “Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council”
