Understanding the War in Syria – 2013 to 2017/18

You will find here a series of research articles that were published from 2013 to 2017 and early 2018 to help actors navigate the war in Syria, with different focuses according to years.

The early years of the war: up until 2013-2014

State of play and actors of the war in Syria

In this section you will find the state of play and the various categories of actors fighting in and over Syria. Articles written before July 2013 are open access.

General and evolution of the war

• Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War, 15 April 2013.
• Evaluating Forces on the Syrian Battlefield, by Helene Lavoix, 8 July 2013
• The Syrian War: the Start of a New Phase, by Helene Lavoix, 24 February 2014.

(A full report in pdf – Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War, published on 15 July 2013 is also available).

Al-Assad Groups

• Pro-Assad Groups and Moderate Opposition Forces, 22 April 2013, plus updates until July 2013.
• Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Update – The Al-Assad regime groups, by Helene Lavoix, 7 October 2013.

Salafis and Jihadis

• Nationalist Salafis and Global Jihadis in Syria, 6 May 2013 with updates up to 24 February 2014.
• Facing the Fog of War in Syria: The Syrian Islamists Play the Regional “Game of Thrones”, by Helene Lavoix,  21 October 2013.
• Facing the Fog of War in Syria: the Rise of the Salafi-Nationalists? by Helene Lavoix, 27 January 2014.

Scenarios (2013) for the future of the war in Syria

Back in 2013, we also built scenarios for the future. Keep in mind that ideally, scenarios should then be used for monitoring and early warning. Indeed, scenarios evolve, notably in terms of likelihood, out of changes on the battleground and interactions between all actors.

• Scenarios 1: Peace in Geneva
• Scenarios 2: No Syrian in Geneva –
• Scenarios 3: A Real Victory in Syria
  • Scenario 3.1.: An Islamic al-Sham?
  • Scenario 3.2.: A Nationalist Islamic Syria?
  • Scenario 3.3.: A Secular Syria?
    • Scenario 3.3.1. A Muslim Brotherhood’s Syria
    • Scenario 3.3.2.: A Truly Secular Syria?
  • Scenario 3.4. Back to an Al-Assad Syria?

Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War, by Helene Lavoix, 10 March 2014.

The war against the Islamic State

Then we focused mainly on the Islamic State. You can access our detailed work in the corresponding section as it is broader in scope than the war in Syria (see notably: At War against the Islamic State – From Syria to the Region by H Lavoix, 2 November 2015).

The years 2016 and 2017

A more recent phase of the war in Syria, end of 2016 to 2017 is handled mainly through signals’ analysis in the Horizon Scanning Board, with longer articles on the Kurds (see package above).

The Battle of Raqqa, the Kurds and Turkey – by H Lavoix, 2 May 2017.

The Kurds in Syria – State-Building, New Model and War – by H Lavoix, 22 May 2017.

The Middle East Powder Keg and the Great Battle for Raqqa – by H Lavoix, 12 June 2017.

Towards Renewed War in Syria? The Kurds and Turkey – by H Lavoix, 3 July 2017.

Bibliography

The Syrian War – Bibliography and Sources (first years of the war in Syria)

Methodology

See also our section on scenarios and scenario-building.

• Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War (10 March 2014).
• On updating assessments and facing the fog of war: Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates (7 October 2013).