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Budget Deficit and Liquidity (The Chronicles of Everstate)

Previous episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, in Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state), people seek security as they increasingly feel the negative impact of various pressures and threats on their life. Henceforth they turn to their political authorities and even start trying to compel them to provide this security. Through those actions, Everstatans start to remember that, as part of the nation, they are also rulers of Everstate. Yet, the situation is growing worse because the tasks of governance have grown more complex while the governing system and the polity are not yet adapted to the new conditions.

Deepening budget deficit and increasing need for liquidity

The first phenomenon driving Everstatan political authorities’ incapacity to deliver security is a deepening budget deficit and an increasing need for liquidity.

The resources that participate into obtaining the income necessary to govern have started being impacted by the novel threats and by the evolution in general a few years ago. However, this change happened unnoticed by most and is still largely ignored as new pressures are yet to be recognised. In general, the focus of awareness is on forthcoming so-called resource wars*, generated by the probable end of cheap abundance that is likely to affect natural resources such as water, oil, or minerals, and the scrambling for components in new substitutes such as rare-earth elements.

Yet, the problem is more complex and also far worse. Some of the resources that used to generate income in the past have dwindled. For example, when Everstatan industries delocalised, related income disappeared. Meanwhile, changes impacting other resources on the one hand, and the emergence of new resources on the other are not yet integrated within the public framework. All affect income.

Governing bodies should be on the watch and receive adequate warnings regarding the need to take in-depth actions.

However, the resources extracted from the polity that have usually generated income are taxes levied mostly on the population, through taxes on personal income and social contributions (direct taxes) or through taxes on consumption (indirect taxes). Hence, the negative impact on resources could not and cannot be directly and immediately felt, and thus goes unconsidered. It is mediated by time and by economic activity as well as by impact of the general evolution of society on the wealth and consumption behaviour of people.

Yet, as new pressures pile, most of them without any awareness and thus unattended, while resources and ecological conditions evolve, an increasingly larger impact on the resources of the nation is to be expected, unforeseen, thus unmonitored and, consequently, without any kind of planning to face it. Very real consequences on the nation’s income, even if they are delayed, are in the making.

Meanwhile, the simple fact to try to make sense of some of the new pressures, those that are already perceived, comes with a cost. To fight constantly against such new military threats as terrorism or such unconventional dangers as cyber-threats uses a lot of the available resources and related income, to say nothing of possible new more classical military threats.

The increasingly numerous extreme weather events that are occurring, if they are not always evaluated in such a way, also takes its toll on resources: damages imply a net loss of wealth, while most events such as floods, tempests, or snowstorms immobilise economic activity. The accumulation of those localised and sometimes hardly noticed events has a direct domestic cost that increases expenditures, while it diminishes income and sometimes reduces resources.** Furthermore, when natural catastrophes and extreme weather events hit other countries, Everstate is also impacted through aid and various contributions, lowered trade, potential global ecological impact of disasters and levy on citizens’ savings (which then become unavailable for domestic borrowing, investment or consumption), with further consequences as reduced contribution to taxes.

Everstate is thus faced with a relative (compared with what would have been, had those changes and evolutions not taken place) lowered income, while more resources to face rising expenditures are necessary and increasingly more so, when those new and rising pressures also mean that the task of governing has become harder, which too has a cost, at least initially.

The nation and its governing bodies thus imperatively need to find new resources and income, as well as related new staff, which increases state’s expenditures, which in turn will increase the need for new resources and then income, until a new balance, adapted to the current and foreseeable future conditions, is found.

Solely keeping the system running as in the past is counterproductive because this directly and immediately impacts governance, lowering its efficiency. Being unable to understand what is happening and thus to find the necessary new resources and income means that a satisfactory way to plan for the increasing tasks involved by governance cannot be achieved. This, too, lowers the overall efficiency. As a result, the security that Everstatans seek cannot be ensured. Furthermore, the system is increasingly unable to do so.

Be it perceived and understood or not, this need for new resources and income is very real and upon Everstate. It implies that cash or liquid assets are demanded by Everstate’s governing bodies. First, they have to pay to face all the pressures identified, to assume impacts’ costs when pressures are not identified, and to finance the usual tasks of governing, when Everstate’s income is insufficient as new resources and income have not yet been found. A new adapted strategy of extraction of resources (for the income of governing bodies) would reduce the need for liquidity, but it has yet to be designed.

In Everstate, as in many other countries, this situation has lasted for quite a while already. However, Everstate’s government and Parliament have dealt with it as if nothing new had happened. They thus used past recipes. As a result, the budget deficit has become chronic. In turn, as deficit is now regularly bridged by debt, on the one hand the cost of the debt further increases the deficit, while the need to borrow further heightens the need for liquidity.

Meanwhile, Everstatans’ quest for security in those gradually more difficult conditions also contributes to increase the demand for liquidity as people still need the now lacking or diminishing resources. Thus, the demand for those resources does not recede. On the contrary, for some of them, it increases as usage of those resources is fully integrated within the developed way of life of Everstatans and its expected improvement. For example, some of those resources have to come from further way or, when possible, have to be created or transformed out of other resources, which implies a further demand for liquidity. This situation also contributes to intensify the demand for understanding and meaning, as Everstatans, as any human beings, need to make sense of their perceived new hardship, so contrary to the promises of the materialistic normative order in which they have lived all their lives.

To be continued…

* See, among others, Michael T. Klare, Resource wars: the new landscape of global conflict, Henry Holt, 2002.

** See, for example, Holly Riebeek, “The rising cost of natural hazards,” Nasa Earth Observatory, March 28, 2006, accessed April 14, 2011; Munich RE NatCatSERVICE: Natural Catastrophes in 2010, 2011, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE ; and corresponding press release, accessed April 14, 2011.

2212 EVT: Seeking Security (The Chronicles of Everstate)

Summary of previous episodes: In 2212 EVT, in Everstate, the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state, the population’s discontent increases. It is bound to continue to do so, as a result of various pressures and threats, most of them inevitable, imperfectly identified, and not understood. Indeed, Everstatans feel both directly and indirectly the impact of those pressures, which affect their sense of security and thus generate discontent (link to previous article).

Everstatans seek security

Everstatans continue to seek a security that is appearing as increasingly distant and elusive.

They turn to their political authorities, expecting them to deliver this security. Indeed, Everstatans believe that their government, their state (which assists the ruler in its tasks) and their national representatives, being their legitimate political authorities, should ensure their security. This fundamental belief is inscribed in their collective history, not only as a country, but also as part of the human species (Moore, 1978). Furthermore, Everstate is part of the normative order called liberal democracies. Thus, as Everstatans have elected their representatives and their government, they are even surer of their right to be well governed, i.e. to see their security ensured.

However, most of the time, they have forgotten that, as citizens on the one hand and as part of the collective body of the nation on the other, they are also a part of the political authorities. As such, they not only have a role to play but also a duty to assume it. They cannot just sit there and relinquish their power and responsibilities, all the more so that their security is at stake. This forgetfulness is not a specific trait of Everstatans but widely shared with most of their fellow citizens in other representative liberal democracies.

Initially, Everstatans exerted their power in a rather negative and passive way, witness the growing abstention during elections that had been going on for decades and other worrying weak signals of alienation.

Now, their grumbling grows louder and is a first still inchoate way to act to make sure their government, their state and their national representatives consider their demands. Furthermore, other actions, more visible, such as strikes and demonstrations – sometimes with some violence – also take place with an increasing frequency while creeping unrest and rising lawlessness settle in some very specific areas.

As all those actions originate from different groups of citizens and take various forms with different purposes, for most observers, including Everstatans, they appear as unrelated, dispersed and thus of no consequence. Worse still for those witnesses, when a protest movement seems to be a bit more constructed – e.g. the Occupy Everstate movement, part of the global Occupy/Indignados movement – it starts with a specific demand, linked to the impacts having generated dissatisfaction, then, when satisfaction is not obtained, the scope of the discontent in terms of content increases, usually giving rise to another supplementary revendication.

This leads most to completely discredit the various movements of protest, all the more so that the new very real pressures Everstate has to face are still very imperfectly perceived and measured. Indeed, seen from the surface, the protests are sporadic, actively involve relatively few people, flare up and then recede. However, imperceptibly, overtime, the overall level of tension increases, the number of people likely to be actively involved in protests rises, while the scope of discontent widens.

Wrong answers

As the responses of Everstate’s government, state, and Parliament generate dissatisfaction, it seems that they are increasingly unable to answer the population’s demands, which stem from the real situation, the citizens need for security and the beliefs they hold.

Things are however more complex than a sudden incompetency or, more absurd, malevolence, as some extremist Everstatan conspiracy theorists try to promote.

Everstatan political authorities, indeed, have to provide a governance that has become progressively more complex and thus difficult Governance implies more tasks, many of them novel. Security must be delivered to citizens in overall conditions that have changed. The various pressures for survival and military threats as well as their intensity demand attention, resources, policy and successful responses. Meanwhile, the evolution of resources available, as well as their rising complexity, for example all those related to the virtual and mobile world, again ask for fully novel policies and practice.

Logically those new tasks require new staff as well as new resources and income, past ones having become ill-suited, insufficient or even exhausted.

In this framework and because of it, three related phenomena are at work that drive the political authorities’ current incapacity to deliver security and thus the rising population’s dissatisfaction, while also directly adding to the discontent: a deepening budget deficit and an increasing need for liquidity, a creeping new appropriation of public resources and a weakening of the strength of central public power to the profit of various elite groups, and finally the use of an out-dated normative model leading to misunderstanding and disconnect as long as the demand for new understanding is not satisfied.

To be continued…

Reference

Moore, B., Injustice: Social bases of Obedience and Revolt, (London: Macmillan, 1978)

2212 EVT: Rising Discontent (The Chronicles of Everstate)

Summary of previous episodes: Everstate (an ideal-type for our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) is part of the international liberal order and ruled under a democratic parliamentary regime.

Lately, its governance started being less efficient and as a result began to fail to ensure the security of Everstate’s citizens. Meanwhile, its economy showed sign of losing efficacy and its powerful elite groups fought hard to keep their status although they do not believe to be really at risk.

The various degradations and tensions have started being felt and registered by the population. However, most Everstatan actors considered those as temporary crises and difficulties that will be shortly solved. At worst, some envisioned a serious crisis that would last a few years, maybe a decade of slow growth before everything went back to normal (link to previous article). Are they right? What does the future hold for Everstate?

(The reader will find detailed explanations on the methodology applied to this article at the bottom of the page).

Dissatisfaction and tension of the population

Confronted with various mild but growing inefficiencies in terms of governance and economy, Everstatans are increasingly dissatisfied. They perceive the overall security provided by their political authorities as having started to decrease. At the beginning, it was imperceptible. Now, their discontent increases and cannot be ignored anymore. Indeed, more and more people feel relatively deprived as they contrast what they remember about their past satisfaction, what they had sought to achieve and what they now manage to obtain, whatever their efforts.

First, obvious new external military threats have arisen from foreign groups trying to implement their own state power. Those threats are widely labelled and known as “terrorism” or sometimes “radicalization” and have been partly solved through various efforts, notably those made in the areas of domestic security and law enforcement. Other threats have emerged from states that are considered as unfriendly, indeed at times dubbed “rogue states.” Both have started introducing an element of permanent and pernicious fear and unease in the population.

Then, the satisfaction of the population is affected by other factors that are not yet perceived and even less considered, integrated and successfully dealt with by Everstate’s political authorities.

The evolution of society has, over time, affected the ecological milieu, which has given rise to new types of pressures. In Everstate and in international settings, the reality of those pressures is still debated, which often leads to ignore or minimize their importance. Among those controversies, we find the end of cheap energy, notably oil-based energy, the safety of nuclear energy, food and water availability, climate change, the increase of various types of pollution, and the return of the fear of deadly pandemics. Furthermore, because those pressures are new or have not been felt for centuries, the existing normative models do not consider them. Those models, indeed, focus on other matters, those issues that were crucial when the norms were constructed. Considering the importance of normative models and related thinking, the lack of possible concern integrated within the normative model also contributes to minimise the perception of and interest in those new pressures.

Meanwhile, natural uncontrollable catastrophes such as earthquakes or volcano eruptions, linked to the fate of geography, are still hitting societies blindly. Everstate fears no volcano on its territory, but some areas, by the seashore notably, are prone to earthquakes, although no severe one has occurred for more than two centuries. Typhoons and hurricanes, floods and droughts are still devastating worldwide, but Everstate’s climate makes such happenstance quite impossible. And yet… an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events started being registered a few years ago (e.g. Munich-Re, 2010). Although the scientific understanding of many of those phenomena is still imperfect, a similar trend was registered in many countries of the world. Increasingly, it was identified as related to those changing conditions brought about by human activity.

Furthermore, previous evolutions have affected natural resources. Those that are finite have now been used by the population and thus are obviously not available anymore. Those that are considered as renewable have also sometimes been altered in a way that makes them unavailable for a specific location. For example, if water is fundamentally a renewable resource, the depletion of groundwater in some areas, or pollution, which can only be removed over centuries, in others transform water for specific areas and lapse of time into a finite resource. Such shortages directly impact the population, as people cannot benefit from those resources anymore, be it in terms of direct use or because whole sectors of activity disappear leading to unemployment and general impoverishment. Furthermore, by bearing upon the overall ecological setting, they contribute to create new kinds of pressure for survival. Meanwhile, other potential resources are emerging but are not yet fully integrated into ways of life. Thus, they cannot fully take the place of the past, used resources, when replacement is possible. They cannot either help face the whole range of new pressures for survival. So far, in Everstate, no complete shortage in response to a need had to be faced. On the contrary, in a still recent past as when coal mines were closed, whole sectors of activity have been swept away.

At the same time, evolution has generated new capabilities that are progressively used against society in a deadly and damaging way. Thus, new threats appear. Everstate and its allies have so far labelled those threats as unconventional, which definitely underlines their novelty, even in terms of thoughts. A few of them – but by all means not all as they permanently evolve – have been identified and range from cyber-security (linked to the digital and communication technology and their use) to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

As long as Everstate has not designed the way to deal (through governance) with those new multiple pressures, the degree with which those pressures impacts society progressively increases, while the level of satisfaction of the population decreases. Now, this way cannot even start being imagined because those stresses are not fully registered and thus even less understood. Indeed, the Everstatan system, as the system of other countries, was built to deal with other – past – pressures.

Thus, dissatisfaction is bound to increase for some time in Everstate. This discontent itself, feeds progressively into a domestic escalation spiral. In turn, it increases incrementally the degree of pressure that is exerted on Everstate as a whole.

Meanwhile, Everstatans continue to seek a security that is appearing as increasingly distant and elusive…. to be continued.

How to?

Application of the methodology used to construct the narrative.

The variable that will serve to start the narrative is “pop level of satisfaction (sec) s3,” i.e. level of satisfaction of the population regarding security for the third phase or step of our dynamic model. To help the reader understand the methodology, the words corresponding to an influencing or influenced variable or node for the main narrative will be in bold in this post.

When needed, to obtain more information on those nodes, we shall display the corresponding ego network that will hep nourishing and constructing the narrative.

In terms of outline, we start with the variables causing what we try to narrate (the discontent of the population), looking first at those linked to s2 (the previous step, temporally), then moving to s3. Once all the causing variables have been seen, then one progresses to the impact variables, which will allow us moving the story forward, with the exception of groups of variables, both influencing and influenced, for which the story is clearer if told as a group or system, e.g. the first paragraph. The task of detecting those groups of variables is eased by the use of network visualisation tools as those groups are literally shown by the lay-out (here Force Atlas).

———–

References

Munich Re, “Extreme Weather Events – Signs of climate change?” 5 August 2010:

“These facts show that global warming is playing a significant role in the rising number of extreme events. Analyses performed by Munich Re’s natural catastrophe database, the most comprehensive in the world, substantiate this increase: the number of extreme weather events like windstorm and floods has tripled since 1980, and the trend is expected to persist.” [my emphasis]

Everstate: Setting the stage (2)

Summary of our scenario so far: Everstate is an ideal-type for our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state. In the case of this specific scenario-building, we are setting the stage for Everstate, by attributing values to key influencing variable to be able to develop the scenarios.

As previously set, Everstate is thus a middle-range power located on the Eurasian land mass and part of the international liberal order. It is ruled under a democratic parliamentary regime. It obeys an array of norms and their institutional administrative offshoots at international, regional and national level. Its governance is thus complex. Lately, that governance started being less efficient and as a result began to fail to ensure the security of Everstate’s citizens.

An increasingly inefficient economy

Meanwhile, the economy was starting to be less efficient. True enough, Everstate, with its still fair governance, inheriting a past positive economic situation was still receiving its share of foreign direct investments (FDI), while also investing in other countries, thus being fully part of the enmeshed globalised world.

Yet, the growth, upheld by the normative order as main objective, panacea and ideal, tended to increasingly stall and chronic unemployment had slowly started to settle in. Meanwhile, poverty had not been eradicated and was again on the rise, while inequality decupled. However, the normative model still justified the resource repartition and, for example, those who were poor tended to be seen as lazy, worthless and as social misfits, who did not want to enter the system and work.

Most analysts and analyses were focusing on old ways to understand economics, which had been so useful in the past, revisiting debates and quarrels over Keynes, Hayek, Marx, and others for example. Yet, most failed to find explanations and solutions to the current degrading efficiency and slowing growth. Meanwhile, obvious factors were most often overlooked.

The evolution of society towards more complexity affected not only governance but also economy and its efficiency. Its impact on the initial resources available was also playing a part: for example, science, production models, socio-political models, changes in ways of life, and demography had profoundly altered not only agriculture but also available resources such as land, water, seeds, and food resources. Furthermore, the evolution of society coupled with the evolution of resources had strongly impacted the ecological milieu, for example through biodiversity impacts and climate change, which in turn affected directly the efficiency of the economy. New resources could emerge that had been unheard of previously, e.g. biofuels, or massive influx of jellyfish that altered the whole life of Everstate’s seashore. More generally, resources also displayed a trend towards an increasing complexity, with consequences on the economy. Similar dynamics were at work in any sector, including the emergence of the very new (in terms of human history) virtual world.

Changes in the economy’s efficiency had effects on the security provided to citizens, would it be only directly through a more uncertain material security. Indirect effects, in as much as governance seemed unable to favour a return to the security ante, were also to be expected, with time. However, those consequences were still deemed as temporary and relatively minor in terms of scope (the number of people being affected) and intensity. Citizens had started expressing the fact they felt those effects, but only through relatively mild discontent (mostly without any violence).

Another impact, initially mainly unnoticed, was that the demand for liquidity had started to grow. Indeed, the still existing economic growth needed liquidity, as well as the usual functioning of the economy. More importantly, the gap between lowered efficiency and stable or increasing needs had to be bridged by something and it was by liquidity.

The powerful Everstatan elite* under threat?

As for all elite groups, Everstatan elite power stemmed initially from their search to protect and increase their status and privileges, their resources and income. Then, obtaining and maintaining this power promoted the search for even more power, in a relentless dynamic.

Becoming part of elite groups is obtained throughout time and space by holding mastery or power over something that is needed by one’s polity. Three major areas can be identified that generate and then maintain elite power: understanding, knowledge and skills, specific (material) resources (e.g. land for a long period of human history), and, last but not least, liquid assets or liquidity.

The dynamics, in essence, run as follows: a polity needs specific resources (e.g. energy), understanding and skills (e.g. how best to see the economy function, or how best to manage the state apparatus according to the ongoing socio-political model), and liquid assets, with variation in terms of content, quantity and timing. When the need appears or increases, then those who possess the corresponding resource find themselves in the position to become crucial to their polity. The less numerous those who master this resource, the higher the power and related status they will get in return.

Status itself can also be considered as a symbolic resource of a specific kind that is hard to obtain but, once reached, favours mastery over the rest. Similarly, elite groups derive income from their various masteries that help them, if wisely used, to maintain their mastery then power. Finally, elite groups also develop coercive powers – when coercion is not the primary resource over which they have mastery – that help them achieving and maintaining their power.

The stronger the elite power, the stronger the elite bargaining position when negotiating with the ruler of the polity for those resources they master, which, in turn, leads to a rampant and hidden appropriation of the public domain, as is the case for Everstate. Furthermore, Everstate being a modern nation-state, organised according to a democratic regime, the tension occurs directly between elite groups and the nation, the real ruler of Everstate.

In Everstate, the rising demand for liquidity, notably, had enhanced the elite power of lenders and of the various financial actors, while the rising economic inefficiency had similar effects on economic actors including pundits.

Most notably, in Everstate as in most other countries, new elite groups had started rising, for example those linked to the virtual world.

Any new demand that would emerge would lead to the rise of a new elite group.

However strong the position obtained by entrenched elite groups, they may also disappear. Indeed, what creates them may lead to their demise, as resources become plentiful or disused, as skills and knowledge once scarce become widespread or as understanding suddenly fails.

Yet, elite group will not willingly accept their own disappearance, and will use any means to keep their power and status. At best they will promote changes in a bid to uphold their mastery over crucial resources. At worst they will block changes and fully involve their remaining means of power (income, coercion, status) in contests spurred by the discontent of the nation, playing an active role in polarisation and radicalization of society, favouring escalation towards conflict and finally most often ready to engage in wars.

The situation had definitely not reached this level of tension in Everstate as our story begins. Yet, the changes at work could let expect that some elite groups’ power was challenged, and could eventually lead to their demise, but no full awareness of this phenomenon had yet taken place. Notably, pro-active elite involved in economic efficiency, governance-related administrative and political elite, and knowledge and understanding institutions meant to provide explanation and models and related elite groups were most probably at risk.

The various mild degradations and tensions had been felt and registered by the population, sometimes involving protests under various forms, from abstention during elections to strikes and demonstrations, by the various elite groups, the government and the state. However, most Everstatan actors were most often considering them as temporary crises and difficulties that would be shortly solved, while everything would go back to normal. At worst, some envisioned a serious crisis that would last a few years, maybe a decade before everything went back to normal.

Are they right? What does the future hold for Everstate? Whatever happens on the shorter term, will it have impacts on the medium then longer term, and which ones? How will Everstate fare if or when confronted to tragic events, considering decisions taken during the first years?

To be continued

Notes and References

* Along many scholars having worked on this topic, and on sub-issues, and who have informed the building of the overall map, I am more particularly greatly indebted to Thomas Ertman for his enlightening and masterful understanding of state-building. All mistakes and misunderstandings remain my own. Thomas Ertman, Birth of the Leviathan: Building States and Regimes in Medieval and Early Modern Europe, (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1997). For a review of Ertman’s book, see, for example: Ariel Zellman’s Review: Birth of the Leviathan by Thomas Ertman.

Anderson, Benedict, Imagined communities: reflections on the origin and spread of nationalism, (New York: Verso 1991).

Ertman, Thomas, Birth of the Leviathan: Building States and Regimes in Medieval and Early Modern Europe, (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1997).

Robert Taylor, The State in Burma, (London: Christopher Hurst, 1987) – notably for the separation between public and private domain, see p.66.

Zellman, Ariel, “Birth of the Leviathan by Thomas Ertman” Blog post

Constructing a Foresight Scenario’s Narrative with Ego Networks

In many foresight methods, once you have identified the main factors or variables and reach the moment to develop the narrative for the scenarios, you are left with no guidance regarding the way to accomplish this step, beyond something along the line of “flesh out the scenario and develop the story.”*

Here, we shall do otherwise and provide a straightforward and easy method to write the scenario. We shall use the dynamic network we constructed for Everstate – or for another issue – and the feature called “Ego Network” that is available in social network analysis and visualisation software to guide the development and writing of the narrative.

The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.

2012 predictions (4)

Jennifer Mc Lean, What Will Happen In 2012? (video) Various authors for beyondbrics: a series – 12 for 2012 – that beyondbrics is running on key emerging markets topics for the coming year, The Financial Times, starting Dec 27, 2011: Ivan Tchakarov of Renaissance Capital, 12 for 2012: Will Putin 2.0 be any different? Dec 27, 2011 Murat Üçer, 12 for 2012: Turkey’s tightrope, Dec 28, 2011 Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley, 12 for 2012: expect an EM equities rally, Dec 29, 2011 Dong Tao of Credit Suisse, 12 for 2012: China will go slow for longer, but a hard landing is unlikely, Dec 30, 2011. Louise Arbour, Next Year’s Wars: Ten conflicts to watch in 2012, Foreign Policy, Dec 27, 2011 …

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2012 predictions (3)

2012 predictions (3) Morgan Stanley, Global 2012 Outlook, Global economic Forum, December 15, 2011. EconMatters, Debt Crisis 2012: Forget Europe, Check Out Japan, Zerohedge, 12/27/2011. Council on Foreign Relations, The World Next Year: 2012 – A preview of world events in the coming year, (podcast), CFR multimedia, December 22, 2011. Council on Foreign Relations, Preventive Priorities Survey: 2012, CFR.com, December 8, 2011. Council on Foreign Relations, Five Economic Trends to Watch in 2012, CFR.com, December 28, 2011. Sundeep Waslekar (Strategic Foresight Group), 12 Trends To Watch For 2012 – OpEd, Eurasia Review, December 27, 2011. Lance Ulanoff, 5 Tech Trends to Watch in 2012, Mashable Social Media, December 28, 2011. Zachary Karabell, 2012 Economic Outlook: Why Things Are Better Than We Think, the …

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2012 predictions (2)

2012 predictions (2) ZeroHedge, Globalization, The Decade Ahead, And Asymmetric Returns, 12/26/2011 ZeroHedge, Jim Rogers 2012 Outlook: Pessimism With Scattered Crises, 12/26/2011 Derek Abma on 2012 predictions by Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, “Canada to avoid recession next year despite Europe,” The Vancouver Sun, Financial Post, December 26, 2011 Ryan Mauro, Top 12 Threats to Watch in 2012, Family Security Matters, December 27, 2011 Tony Karon, “If 2011 Was a Turbulent Year for Obama’s Foreign Policy, 2012 Looks Set to Be Worse,” (Survey of the top ten global crisis issues facing the U.S. in the new year), Time.com Global Spin, December 27, 2011. Moneycontrol bureau, “Keep your coats on! It’s going to be a stormy 2012,” (summary of financial and eco …

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2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security

2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security Every year, a host of actors, from newspapers to magazines, from think tanks to futurists and other experts, publish predictions at the dawn of every New Year. The aim here is to create a repository of all the predictions done for 2012 that are directly or indirectly related to national security, as primary material for all those who would like later on to sort them, analyse them and finally test them. The section will be populated as forecasts and webpages are published and identified. You are most welcome to post a link to 2012 predictions you found or did in the comments. Please mention the origin, date, title and hyperlink. And to start with: The …

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Variables, Values and Consistency in Dynamic Networks

In this article we explain and discuss the methodological background that allows us to set the criteria for Everstate – or for any country or issue chosen – as exemplified in the post “Everstate’s characteristics.” Meanwhile, we also address the problem of consistency.