Author Archives: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Ultra-Nationalism and the Far Right in Ukraine (1): Victims and Heroes

Parliamentary election in Ukraine will be held on 26 October 2014. Meanwhile, the road towards full peace in Eastern Ukraine is still uncertain, despite the 5 September Minsk protocol and its 19 September memorandum (OSCE), witness, among others, the battles for Donetsk airport and latest fighting in Luhansk or near Mariupol (OSCE SMM reports). Furthermore, on 2 November, the special status territories of the Donbass, the “self-proclaimed” Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) will vote to elect their respective heads and representatives at the People’s Assemblies (Ria Novosti, 11 October 2014).It is thus all the more important to continue our evaluation of the state of play for the various Ukrainian actors. Ukraine is indeed more than ever poised at …

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 174 – 16 October 2014

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… This week a very important “exclusive” by Reuters regarding a new Saudi strategy of lower energy prices, with all the potential impacts this may have on, for example fracking in the U.S. or Russian energy strategy. An interesting article on how Internet-based flight tracking tools and …

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 173 – 9 October 2014

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… This week a very interesting article on Ukraine copycat war with Russia by a Kiev Post journalist (including the creation of a UT copied on Russian RT), a very complete health section devoted to Ebola, an article on “The Navy’s Future Fleet of Swarming Boat-Drones” …

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Epidemic, Pandemic and Uncertainty – The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 172

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Editorial – Epidemic, pandemic and uncertainty – Besides the increasingly likely and logical spread of the Islamist threat to Libya – after India as seen over the last weeks, the still very unstable situation in Ukraine and its international corollaries, from tension within the EU to …

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Monitoring the War against the Islamic State or against a Terrorist Group?

The war in Syria has now become fully internationalized, after its expected regionalization, notably favoured by the failure to stabilize Iraq after its state was destroyed by the 2003 US-led Iraq war. The two, initially unrelated wars have morphed into a war against one of the fighting actors on the Syrian battlefield, the Islamic State, originally born from the Iraqi …

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 171– Al-Qaeda in India

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 25 September scan → The Weekly is the scan of The Red (Team) Analysis Society and it focuses on national and international security issues. It was started as an experiment with Paper.li as a way to collect ideas, notably through Twitter. Its success and …

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Seminars in Brussels: 2013-2020

In 2013, Vesalius College, the Institute for European Studies (IES) and the Global Governance Institute (GGI) created an Advanced Certificate in Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management that included 10 modules. The Red Team took an active part in the curriculum design of the first part “Risk Analysis and Early Warning” at the start of …

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 170 – China Sees Possibility for World War 3

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 18 September scan → The Weekly is the scan of The Red (Team) Analysis Society and it focuses on national and international security issues. It was started as an experiment with Paper.li as a way to collect ideas, notably through Twitter. Its success and …

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An Isolated Russia? Think Again!

Since March 2014, the Russian “dispatch of troops to Crimea”, and the contested referendum in Crimea followed by its incorporation into the Russian Federation, “The West”* rhetoric is that Russia is isolated, and that the U.S. and its allies will work to further isolate it (e.g. Zeke J Miller, “Obama: U.S. Working To ‘Isolate Russia’“, Time, 3 March 2014).As the war in Eastern Ukraine seems to be perceived mainly through “Crimean lenses”, this Western policy, added to rounds of sanctions, aim at seeing an increasingly isolated Russian Federation bend to a “Western” vision of what the international order should be. The soon ex-General Secretary of Nato Rasmussen’s statement on Estonian TV according to which “Russia is globally isolated due to its actions in Ukraine” is only one example of similar comments made over …

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 169, 11 September 2014

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 11 September scan → If you wish to consult the scan after the end of the week period, use the archives on The Weekly. The Weekly is the scan of The Red (Team) Analysis Society and it focuses on national and international security issues. …

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