A couple of the most important work on Strategic Foresight and Early Warning Methodology are presented below. A far more detailed bibliography is available in our training curricula and online courses.
- Methodology of SF&W
- SF&W – biases
- Content and Analysis
(The bibliography related to governance, state, state-building and the construction of the underlying dynamic network for Everstate has been moved here)
Arcade, Jacques, Godet, Michel, Meunier, Francis, and Roubelat, Fabrice, “Structural Analysis with the MICMAC Method & Actors’ Strategy with MACTOR Method,” The Millennium Project: Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0, Ed. Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. 2009, Ch 11.
Curry, Andrew & Schultz, Wendy “Roads Less Travelled: Different Methods, Different Futures,” Journal of Futures Studies, May 2009, 13(4): 35 – 60.
Epstein, Joshua M. “Why Model?” Santa Fe Institute Working Papers, 2008
Glenn, Jerome C. and The Futures Group International, “Scenarios,” The Millennium Project: Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0, Ed. Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. 2009, Ch 19.
Grabo, Cynthia M., Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, edited by Jan Goldman, (Lanham MD: University Press of America, May 2004).
Hanneman, Robert A. and Mark Riddle. 2005. Introduction to social network methods. Riverside, CA: University of California, Riverside.
Ritchey, Tom; “Morphological analysis,” The Millennium Project: Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0, Ed. Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. 2009, Ch 17.
2 – SF&W – biases
Anderson, Craig A., Mark R. Lepper, and Lee Ross. “Perseverance of Social Theories: The Role of Explanation in the Persistence of Discredited Information.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 1980, Vol. 39, No.6, 1037-1049.
Heuer, Richards J. Jr., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1999.