The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No122, 17 October 2013

One of the most important signals of the week was not only, unsurprisingly, the last episode in the never-ending politician American infighting over the debt ceiling, but also, the perceptible fatigue across a wide range of world actors, who were being taken hostage by representatives they had not elected over issues that did not concern them. Even Americans despised the bickering and its huge impact borne by others, if polls and surveys are to be believed. One of the major impact we may envision is that we may well be leaving the dollar dominated world we have known. The cost for the U.S. will be very high on all fronts. That will also mean major changes for the world, including in terms of instability, which may not be good news considering all other elements (from a changing energy security map to turmoil in the Middle East without forgetting new armament and technological changes), also feeding into a generalizing uncertainty. This episode and its global impact could also indicate that we have now, beyond doubt, entered a period of evolution and transition, where complexity is a reality (see for example how piracy may impact climate change research) and feedbacks are very strong and escalating, and will remain so until we – the actors – find how to stabilize our world system.

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Horizon scanning, weak signal, early warning, strategic warning, national security, red team analysis

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for international relations, national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the war in Ukraine, international order and the rise of China, the overstepping of planetary boundaries and international relations, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

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