This Autumn 2022, from mid-November to early December, we were honoured to deliver various training programs in Early Warning and Indicators in Tunisia.

This cooperation takes place within the framework of the support given to the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia by the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their incarceration in Tunisia – READ of the Civipol expertise programme for the European Commission. It started in 2020 with the European project “Counter-terrorism in Tunisia”.

Tunisia and Tunisians, as always, succeeded in mixing genuine warmth and hospitality, great professionalism, and immensely fruitful and constructive exchanges.

The Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI)

Building on previous sessions of training, we had set up with the management of the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia an even more complete programme for the 24th promotion of the ESFSI than previously.

The course will last from November 2022 to May 2023. The first part of the programme took place in Novembre 2022.

As usual, the exchanges with the trainees were constructive and extremely interesting. They showed a great capacity to start mastering quickly the fundamentals and practice of early warning processes and analysis.

As their trainer, I am truly looking forward to the remaining part of the programme and to see the trainees becoming fluent in early warning, from analysis and modeling up to the delivery to policy-makers and decision-makers of constructive and actionable warnings.

Introductory session and future programs

Another training session, designed as an introduction to present fundamentals of early warning in terms of process and analysis, methodology as well as software tools, was also organised within the Ministry of the Interior, with their training center.

Meanwhile further programmes related to Early Warning Systems and training within different centres of the Ministry were discussed in-depth with Tunisian actors according to their needs.


I am looking forward to the coming training programmes with and in Tunisia. Most importantly, and I am grateful to be able to contribute to this challenge, thanks to the dedication and foresight of enlightened civil servants, to the humility, intelligence, enthusiasm, and also the hard work of the trainees, early warning and strategic foresight are being established in Tunisia. Thus, these two activities will soon be able to fulfil their true purpose: to serve the best interests and security of the country and its people.

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.

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